저자: MichaelJay · 외국인
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결론: 조엘 그린블라트의 매직 포뮬라 스크리너는 과거 성과가 뛰어났으나 2013년 이후 시장 대비 부진했으며, 자동화된 장점은 있지만 단독 사용은 권장하지 않고 아이디어 발굴용으로 활용하라는 메시지다. 스크리너 개념: 과거 데이터에 사전 정의된 규칙을 적용해 종목을 자동 선정하는 알고리즘형 도구이며, 사용자가 조건을 조정하는 일반 스크리너와 구분된다. 매직 포뮬라 작동 방식: 핵심 지표는 자본수익률(EBIT를 고정자산+운전자본으로 나눈 값)과 이익수익률(EBIT를 기업가치로 나눈 값)이며, 두 지표 순위를 합산해 상위 종목을 고른다. 성과 근거: 그린블라트 펀드는 20년간 연 40% 수익을 기록했다고 언급된다. 1988~2009년 매직 포뮬라 연복리 약 24%, S&P500 연 9.5%로 같은 기간 자본은 약 14배 차이가 났다. 최근 부진: 2013년경부터 시장 대비 부진했다는 보도가 있으나 정확한 수치는 확인하지 못했다. 가치투자 전략은 고밸류 장세에서 부진하는 경향이 있으며, 현재 PER 수준은 1929년과 2000년 닷컴버블 이후 가장 높다는 점을 제시한다. 장점: 알고리즘 기반이라 감정 개입을 줄이고, 운용 유지비용이 낮아 1년 단위로 종목을 교체하면 된다. 장기 자본이득세 혜택도 언급된다. 단점: 과거 데이터 기반이라 신규 뉴스나 기업 변화가 반영되지 않는다. 장기간 시장 대비 부진하면 전략을 조기에 포기하게 될 위험이 있다. 백테스트 성과만 있는 스크리너도 존재한다. 안전마진 개념이 부족할 수 있으며, 잦은 매매는 수수료 부담을 키운다. 스크리너 설정: 기본값은 시가총액 5천만 달러 이상, 종목 수 30개이며, 대형주 중심으로 바꿀 수 있다. 발표자 활용법: 스크리너는 투자 아이디어 발굴 도구로만 쓰고, 크로거와 게임스톱이 스크리너에 포함된 사례를 들며 최종 판단은 개별 분석으로 해야 한다고 강조한다. 특정 종목 투자 추천은 없다.
다듬은 글
is researching stocks taking more time and effort than you want do you wish there was just a simple list to tell you which stocks to buy each month well if so I've got just the thing for you enter the magic formula investing stock screener which will select the top stocks for your investment portfolio or so they say in this video we'll break down everything you need to know about these types of stock screeners including what are they how do they work the benefits of using these types of screeners some of their drawbacks how these screeners have performed against the market and how you can effectively use them in your investment strategy so when I'm talking about stock screeners I'm not talking about the stock screeners that you can use on Finn vis for example with those screeners you select the fundamental and technical attributes to screen for and select only stocks that meet those characteristics the screeners I'll be discussing are formulaic preset screeners that operate under a specific set of rules to select a list of stocks that they believe are the top stocks to buy this is different from screeners that you can control because unlike those there's little or no input for you as a user so before we get any further what are these stock screeners exactly in a nutshell they're basically formulated computer algorithms that take passed data on each stock as well as their current price and apply that data to a specific set of rules for that stock screener what differentiates stock screeners from actual human investors is that a stock screener once those initial rules are set is fully automated and requires no human interaction now there are many different flavors of stock screeners based on different styles of investing you have screeners for value stocks and growth stocks you've got screeners for technical indicators as well as screeners for recent price momentum in this case well many of the characteristics of screeners I'll be discussing today can be applicable to all types of screeners I'm going to be focusing on value screeners for this video as our case study example we'll be looking at one value stock screener in particular called the magic formula investing stock screener now this stock screener is actually the accompanying stock screener to the book the little blue book that beats the market written by a legendary investor Joel Greenblatt this book and stock screener attempt to systemized the strategy of value investing that made Greenblatt so successful at his firm Gotham capital using this investment strategy he was able to achieve annualized returns of forty percent for over twenty years to put this in perspective if you compound one thousand dollars at an average rate of seven percent over twenty years you'll be left with three thousand eight hundred seventy dollars now if you'd invested in joel Greenblatt's fund that one thousand dollars would have compounded over twenty years to over eight hundred and thirty six thousand dollars which is two hundred and twenty times more than your thousand dollars compounded at your average seven percent rate obviously these high pass returns increase the temptation to use stock screeners like this in hopes of achieving high returns in the future however in practice do these stock screeners really provide the performance that they appear to be advertising and how can you best use them in your investment decision-making process in this case we'll first go over how this stock screener would work in practice now these are the recommend instructions for the magic formula screener but I've noticed that this is a very similar process to many other value stock screeners out there what these screeners first do is they compile fundamental data on all these stocks which includes sales earnings assets and liabilities among other things combining this data with the current stock price these screeners then apply a certain set of rules to value each stock based on certain fundamentals and then apply a ranking ranking the top stocks based on certain metrics of the screener now the magic behind the formula is really based on two key components the first variable is return on capital which is used to determine how much money the company is making on the assets it owns this is done by taking earnings before interest in taxes and dividing it by the sum of your fixed assets of the company and their working capital the second variable used is called earnings yield which is earnings before interest in taxes divided by the company's enterprise value which is effectively its market capitalization plus any interest-bearing debt that it owes these two fundamental metrics mimic most closely the strategy that Joel Greenblatt used to achieve market performance over his investment career now other screeners that look at growth momentum or other technical indicators might have a different rule set and thus rank stocks differently in practice once you have your set list of stocks that appear to be the highest ranked the screener then suggests buying into those stocks either all at once or a few every month until you have enough stocks to be diversified at that point it recommends you hold onto the stocks for at least one year to take advantage of the long-term capital gains tax rate after a year you can sell the stocks and repeat the process again so in practice using these screeners is actually not that complicated and there are a few additional benefits that can go along with using these screeners one of the benefits is based on the inherent properties of a stock screener which is that it's algorithmic and thus is a non emotional way of investing by using the stock screening and investment strategy you're limiting your chances of making an emotional mistake when investing another benefit is that once the strategy is implemented it typically is a rather low maintenance strategy with this value screener once you have your initial set of stocks bought you effectively then just wait a year to repeat the process again at that point those benefits being said there are significant drawbacks to solely relying on a stock screener for your investment strategy one potential drawback is that because of the nature of these screeners they're based purely on past data what this means in practice is that there's no adjustment made for future developments within a stock or a company if new news comes out that could materially impact the future prospects of a stock that is not going to be reflected in these stock screeners now on the other hand some may view this actually as a plus as sometimes markets tend to overreact on current news either way it's something that you should keep in mind another disadvantage is that these screeners may underperform the market and may do so by significant margin as with any investment strategy there's no guarantee about future investment performance even if they've had strong past results in practice significantly underperforming the market for an extended period of time could cause you to abandon the strategy prematurely many stock investment strata depend on a long time horizon so abandoning any strategy early may mean you're giving up long term results alternatively there is the very real possibility that the strategy that this screener is screening on is not a strong long-term strategy going forward some screeners you may encounter have limited history as to their performance and some may not even have real historical performance but simply back tested performance another issue with stock screeners which is maybe somewhat mitigated by using a value stock screener is that some screeners lack a fundamental approach to screening stocks what this means in practice is that many stocks that you're buying would lack a margin of safety to prevent against a permanent loss in capital with some value stocks there's typically a limit to which the price can only go so low before it becomes irrationally cheap on the other hand some stock screeners based purely on momentum might buy a stock simply because it just went up in the past this could be in a stock that's losing money every year and it's unlikely to be profitable any time soon keep this in mind when you're thinking about using a stock screener in your investment process another drawback with these stock screeners is that some strategies may involve a lot of trading if you're using a commission for your brokerage account like Robin Hood this isn't as much of an issue link in the description but if you aren't using a commission for your brokerage or don't have access to one then these strategies can add a significant amount of cost to you in the form of commissions so what does this screener actually look like in practice in this case this screener has simply two criteria one is the minimum market cap or size of the company you're looking at and the other is the number of stocks you want in your list in this case with the default 50 million market cap and 30 number of stocks we get what the screener believes are the top stocks out of all the stocks available to pick from now if you'd rather focus more on larger capitalization stocks you can adjust the mineral market cap as needed in this case it would end up filtering on larger more established companies that you might feel more comfortable investing in so the elephant in the room remains do stocks winners like this offer a decent chance of outperforming the market of the performance data that I could find it seems that the magic form has performed exceptionally well in the past in the case from 1988 to 2009 the magic formula produced a compound annual growth rate of just under twenty four percent compared to the annual growth rate of nine and a half percent from the S&P 500 in that same period over this time period using the magic formula instead of the sp500 would have resulted in you having over 14 times more capital at the end of that period however despite its clear strong past performance the magic formula hasn't been so magic as of late while I was unable to find the exact details there have been various reports stating that from around 2013 onward that the magic formula has underperformed the markets a link to a couple articles below that you can read further on your own time on the recent underperformance I think it's important to keep in mind that value strategies often times will underperform during periods of extreme market growth and high valuations given that from a price to earnings perspective there have only been two other times in histories where stock valuations are this high one of them being 1929 and the other the dot-com bubble of 2000 I think it'd be reasonable to cut some value investing strategies a little bit of slack if you're considering using a value stock screener like this understand that it's best used for the long term if you decide early on after a period of underperformance that it's simply not meeting your expectations then relying solely on the stock screener is probably not the best move for you with everything that we've discussed so far I actually like this particular value stock screener but I don't use it exclusively myself the way I use it in a way that you could use it to to help make more informed investment decisions is use it as a way for generating ideas about stocks that you might be interested in looking into further there are several stocks that have come up in this screener that I've looked at and found to be a compelling value proposition Kroger and gamestop are two examples of stocks that have appeared in some value screeners that I've looked at well their inclusion in these screeners wasn't my sole deciding factor when investing in these companies having access to these screeners provides some insight onto stocks that might be worth a look in the future if you made it to the end thank you guys for watching all the way through I hope this does help get you a better idea of how to use these stock screeners most effectively and some of the limitations on using them going forward if you have any questions leave them in the comments and I'll get back to you until next time thank you guys for watching and I will see you in the next video
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