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Markets are stretched to the downside because we lost you know, almost 13 percentage points in two trading days. Um, as you know, it's almost like the the stock market and the economy was delivered a heart attack from the terms of those tariffs. breaks down crypto trends and Trump's sweeping new global tariffs.
He also reveals what he got wrong about Trump's tax policy and the real end game behind tariffs. Let's dive in. I think that there is a bounce underway. Um, Mark Newton, our head of technical strategy, you know, views this as as a technical rally. Uh, I think something that can take us, you know, to recover towards 5,500 or something like that.
But I do think that there is that, you know, the challenge is going to be we don't have a fundamental clarity and sort of the all clear enough for us to say that that's going to so push us back towards new highs. So, I I do think we're kind of stuck in the near term, but yeah, I think markets overreacted to the downside in yesterday.
I do It does look like the messaging has switched, you know, the president has moved towards nego- to letting people know they're negotiating, and I think that's a return or a quiet return of the Trump put because I don't think they want markets to continue to have this heart attack. So, you many times talk about your your technical analyst and and a lot of times that doesn't involve trying to gauge what's going to happen with fundamentals or or certainly not policies, but in this case you got blindsided a little bit by something totally unexpected in your view for for the the size of the tariffs or or the level of the tariffs.
Why do you feel confident that we're in negotiation phase now and tomorrow we might be back out of negotiation phase. You could get blindsided again. Well, then that that then that would throw off your 5,500 target, wouldn't it? Um Joe, that's right. Um you know, one of the things, you know, we spent a a lot of time talking to investors between Wednesday liberation day and over the weekend and you know, it's clear to us investors feel that not only have were these tariff levels absurd in the sense that it was very difficult for people to to understand the calculation, but it really did break a covenant with capitalism.
You know, the idea that businesses need stable and predictable regulations. Many companies moved their supply chains in 2018 uh because of the need to move away from China and now they have, you know, potentially trillions of dollars of stranded capital again because of these tariffs. So, I I think that that's the the seismic shock that's very tough for markets and the trust that's been broken.
Um it doesn't mean that we can't see a level of clarity that helps restore that trust and so markets after this waterfall decline, you know, one scenario is a V-shaped bounce um that takes us back to the previous levels, but but you know, the reality is it's going to you know, I don't know what that sort of clarity that's required for that is.
So, I I I think it it's it does feel like this will take some time and uh I I you know, one one very good friend of mine is Tom DeMark and he says this reminds him of 2011. I I think that that's not a bad way to look at it that it's going to take a little time for markets to regain some trust. Trump's sweeping global tariffs have reignited a bold idea that Bitcoin could one day outlast the US dollar.
Fears surrounding the tariffs are shaking confidence in traditional currencies with analysts now seeing Bitcoin as a stronger contender than ever before. Jeff Parks, head of alpha strategies at Bitwise Invest, said for the first time it feels like an actual truth to grapple with rather than just theory.
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley agrees. He points out that as trust in the dollar fades and other foreign currencies seem even weaker, investors are left with fewer safe options. Gold, traditionally the go-to in uncertain times, comes with shipping and storage issues. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is easy to store and move, making it a natural choice.
Meanwhile, the US dollar index is down nearly 6% this year. As fears of recession grow and markets tumble, Bitcoin is increasingly seen not just as an investment, but as survival. But we did see, Tom, that that huge roar back yesterday on the false rumor that suggested that they were going to pause, the administration would pause for 90 days while doing this.
So, the market may have broken trust, but it's very eager and really hoping, it sounds like, for for some relief to come from this. Yeah, I think so. You know, I think that there maybe were some You know, that that's almost if that was a trial balloon, it worked. It showed that if there was uh conciliatory actions that were sort of friendly to businesses, that the market could have a massive massive move.
Um you know, I the idea of like an exporter tax credit, these things really can restore confidence because at the end of the day, you know, the entity caught in the middle of this has has been companies and the you know, the capital that they've invested. They need to earn a return. That hurts shareholders, but it also hurts all the employees that work at these businesses.
So I do think that the ripple effects you know, looking back it does make sense why the market had a heart attack. But of course this this also means parts of this is very fixable, but it it does mean that there is you know, a bit of time involved. And I think the administration really planned that trial balloon the way that it kind of worked.
But there's no doubt that that they were paying attention. I I would think it's like wow, look what can happen in in 5 minutes to go from down 800. Let me just say something else I think Tom. So we negotiate with the the 70 countries that and Musk got us about. What if China becomes you know, it's called a trade war and and the language we're hearing on both sides it actually sounds like it could be headed for a war.
So if if we're you know, if the Trump put involves the idea that we're negotiating with a lot of places and things just get worse with China, would that change your your calculus on on the Trump put? Um well seven countries represent about 70% of that trade deficit. Um you know, outside of China I think the EU and Japan, Korea, Vietnam, you know, Canada, Mexico.
I think we're we're heading it looks like we're heading towards something that's acceptable to both sides and really that leaves the US in a better position. Um you know, I think there's a possibility that we have we don't ever resolve this with China. So you know, there's going to be an attempt to maybe build the supply chain or isolate China.
I think that's acceptable for markets as long as that that's actually what's So we don't need Ethereum has only outperformed Bitcoin on about 15% of trading days since it first launched nearly a decade ago, analyst James Check shared the striking statistic, pointing out that while Ethereum had some early success against Bitcoin from mid-2015 to 2017, it has mostly lagged behind since then.
There were a couple of brief moments in late 2019 and early 2020 when Ethereum looked strong. But for the past 5 years, Bitcoin has clearly dominated. The Ethereum/BTC ratio, a key measure of how Ethereum stacks up against Bitcoin, has now dropped to a 5-year low of 0.018. The last time the ratio fell this low was back in December 2019 when Ethereum's price crashed to $125 and Bitcoin hovered around $7,000.
Today, Ethereum has wiped out 7 years of gains, plunging below its 2018 peak, trading under $1,450 after dropping another 10% in just 24 hours. Bitcoin also took a hit, but remains far stronger, sitting at around $75,000, more than 275% above its 2017 high. Concerns are growing among Ethereum supporters.
What Three Research Stacy Moore noted that Ethereum's number of active addresses has stayed roughly the same for the past 4 years, sparking talk of stagnation. However, others argue that much of the new activity is happening on Ethereum's layer two scaling solutions, which are booming. Despite current struggles, technical patterns hint that Ethereum could be nearing a bottom, possibly around the $1,000 mark, suggesting some hope may still be on the horizon. And do not forget to subscribe to Bitcoin Seller. .
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