저자: Henry · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어 주가가 6개월간 약 20% 하락한 상황에서 5월 4일 실적 발표를 앞두고 저가 매수 기회라고 주장. 매출 약 13억 달러 전망, AI 수요와 AIP 모멘텀 강조, 미 군과의 관계를 근거로 제시. 단기 목표 160달러 재상승을 예상하며 130달러 부근을 강한 지지선으로 봄. 본인은 포트폴리오 8%를 보유하고 160 풋을 매수했으며, 5월 15일 만기 140 풋 매도로 추가 1% 편입을 계획. 고지 면책문구를 언급했으나 본인 포지션과 코칭 상품 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
I am buying Palantir before April 28th this month. This is going to be a very important video for you to watch on Palantir because something that's coming up for Palantir on May 4th is earnings. And the consensus range is going to be $0.26 to $0.29. If you look at Palantir's chart, the stock is down 19.85, basically 20% in the last 6 months.
And to me, this is a very huge opportunity. And the reason I'm going to give you in this video is going to to paint a very good picture based on my research on what I am doing with Palantir. I'm going to be showing you not only what I'm doing with the stock, but also what I am doing with the options.
Before I get into the video, quick disclaimer, I'm not a financial advisor. Please do your own research. Be careful when investing in the stock market. It is risky. Now look, Palantir's currently trading for $144 per share, and we're getting a very strong bounce. In general, the market is going up. And this is very important because you may get left behind if you make mistakes in this market.
There has been concerns around competition from Anthropic that they are ahead in AI. But what I'm seeing with Palantir is that the revenue estimate is going to be about $1.3 billion, which is going to be a very massive quarter. It wasn't that long ago that Palantir was making less than a billion per quarter, and now they're on track to hitting something like 2 billion per quarter.
AI demand and AIP momentum is very strong. And this is a really interesting time to be in Palantir specifically before but what in my opinion is that the stock is going to go back to $160 per share in potentially what looks like to be the next month. Now this is just my opinion based on my research, but you guys see how fast the market is moving right now.
The market's momentum is incredibly strong. And if you miss out on the momentum, that's a really big opportunity to be making money back or riding the wave of what is now enthusiasm again. The most important research that I have done and the figures that I'm seeing is that earnings, when they come out, I believe are going to be massive because AI revenue is right now at an inflection point.
Q1 reflects full enterprise adoption from late 2025 deals. We're going to fully see a picture of what Palantir has done and it's officially going to be kind of in the rearview window. So, when investors re-evaluate what the stock has done, they start making future projections, when the CEO and management gives some guidance, Wall Street is going to re-evaluate their financial models and I believe those numbers are going to be very conducive for making an argument that Palantir is a 160 to 180 dollar stock again, right?
The stock was not even that long ago when the stock was over 200 dollars per share, 190 dollars per share in late November. Then we had another little bit peak here in December, right around Christmas when the stock was at 195 dollars. Since then it has been a very slow grind going downwards and now we can actually see here that there is tremendous support.
This support is very important because what I'm going to mention later in this video is some opportunities that I personally see that I am implementing my own portfolio based off of this support level. Now, you can also see here that there has been some analysts that have been basically reiterating that the stock is around 230.
Here we see an analyst from Wedbush saying it's 230. There's another analyst here that lowered their price target to 185. And honestly, 185, fair point. That's pretty much where I see the stock, uh, you know, where it's fair value is, right? I'm going to call it fair value. What, uh, the fair value of the company is based off of future cash flows discounted to today.
That's what I did during my time Street. I was doing financial modeling and sitting in Excel all day. It's very tough job, but, um, that's what I used to do and I've done that again for Palantir. Now, looking at the operating, uh, income and what I think is going to happen is they're really going to see an EPS jump, okay?
EPS could jump faster than revenue because, guys, remember, revenue is a non-fudgeable number, right? That's just how much money a company makes. But EPS is something very different. It can be manipulated by cost, okay? So, depending on cost of goods sold and compensation and other factors, EPS can look wildly different from quarter to quarter for a company.
So, what I think is going to happen is some financial engineering, okay? Some financial engineering has been happening in the market for a very long time. In fact, all companies are looking to financial engineer max. They're looking to make their balance sheets, their cash flow statements, and their income statements look as good as possible.
And I specifically think right now is going to be a time where we're going to see on May 4th some interesting numbers come out. also see happening is analysts say that Palantir ontology plus enterprise mode is really hard to replace. So, some of the worries and concerns around, you know, Anthropic kind of being a really huge competitor, I really don't see it that way.
What I see is commercial plus government sector both expanding. Both are growing significantly for Palantir. So, everyone's really scared about AI competition, but the factor that a lot of people are missing is that Palantir is now embedded in the US military. I don't think you guys understand. The US military spends so much money on defense.
And once they have a relationship, guys, it's all about who you know. It's not about how good you are all the time, even though Palantir is really good. They have lots of technology. They're growing tremendously in AI. It's also who you know and your relationships. And the US military relationship that Palantir has, I've been saying since IPO, since I got into this company when it first IPO'd, that they have their hand in the cookie jar, and those cookies are unlimited, guys.
Your tax dollars, my tax dollars, that cookie jar is so unlimited. That's how Palantir is getting contract after contract. Now, of course, there are risks, right? There is risk of competition. Nothing is truly unlimited in this life, but it feels that way. It feels like there's just contract after contract.
And what I'm seeing is they're signing multi-billion dollar government contracts. And it's AI. It's really strong AI. It's not just chatbots, right? It's not just like some BS chatbots. It's real decision-making infrastructure. So, this is kind of a software company, but not even. It's much more than that.
This is a national security asset. So, when I look at the technical analysis here and I see strong support, this is what makes a really good entry point in my opinion. So, let's go to my position here. I am personally up a lot on Palantir. This is an 8% position in the portfolio. You guys can see right here, I have a $160 put option.
Now, this put option expires in September. So, there's still some time here. You can see some massive wild total returns here. Now, this is a little bit beyond the scope of this video. I've been doing some interesting stuff personally with this portfolio, but I also do share this within my Discord community.
So, if you see that I've been doing a lot of research and you're interested in learning more and really leveling up and understanding option trading, then feel free to visit the first link in the description and learn more about my coaching program. I believe it's well worth it. I've coached well over 2,000 people at this point and it's been a very successful program despite some hard times, right?
I'm not always winning. Some months I do have, you know, bad months. Sometimes I am losing some money. But, in the long term I have persevered and had really good successful performance because my strategy doesn't change. I stick to, you know, my strategy long term. I know what I'm doing and um I don't get emotional about the stock market.
I have that long-term perspective. If I believe in a stock, I'm going to stick to it. All right. So, the technicals for me is that we have very strong support right around 130, okay? So, what I'm looking to do is I do have a 160 put, but what I also want to do, I'm going to go to trade Palantir options right here.
I'm going to show you what I'm going to personally do myself pretty much on Monday, right? Right after the weekend um or even even today on a on Friday. So, what I want to do is I personally want to acquire more shares of Palantir. It is 8% of my portfolio and position sizing is very important. I always talk about one-on-one with my clients and my students that risk management is one of the most important factors because even if a good stock, amazing stock, right?
It can still pull down. A really good stock is not immune to a market pullback. And also, investor psychology does change. Really good stocks are not always in favor. It is really emotional. The market is a bunch of people with emotions, and psychologically sometimes they might be excited, sometimes they might be scared.
And that doesn't matter because that's all more short-term stuff, but in the long term, the valuation of a business is based off the cash flows and the money that they are making and the fundamentals. That is something that I've really kind of prided myself in is understanding the fundamental picture.
Just like Warren Buffett says, in a 5-year window, if the stock market is closed, would you be happy in owning the stock, right? For me, Palantir, yes, and what I want to do is I'm going to go to sell put. I want to sell a put option myself personally in my own portfolio. Now, the reason why I would sell a put option is because the stock is pretty volatile and has very high implied volatility, which is a good thing, right?
I said that Palantir right now, you know, 130 is a good solid, very good solid support, but it doesn't even mean that I have to go down to 130. I'd be pretty happy owning Palantir even at 135. So, what I'm going to do is I'm going to go to from May 15th traditional expiry. Traditional expiry is on the third Friday.
Now, what I'm going to do is right here, you'll see that if I go for the 140, my actual break even is 131. So, if I were to sell this put option, the risk is that I get assigned on Palantir at 140. However, I am comfortable with that risk because if Palantir goes down to 140, then I'll be getting assigned on a stock that I I want to get assigned on.
The delta here is 0.41. The implied volatility is a whopping, really big, 61%. Now, guys, when something is even above 40, that is stupid money. If you want to make bicycle over tricycle money, you look at implied volatility and you look for a stock that you want to own. If you want to own a stock, has good implied volatility, really the next step is understanding if the options are liquid.
Liquid meaning if there's enough volume to support a strong bid-ask spread. Here, the bid is 815 and the ask is 830. So, I'm excited about this because the bid and ask is very tight on Palantir. I'm always looking for that tight bid-ask spread because you are losing money. Whether you think, you know, Robinhood is free, oh boy, they are not free.
They are selling your information and your data to Citadel and other market makers on Wall Street and Chicago Board of Option Exchange, etc. And they're making money on you. So, you have to be very careful to not overtrade. That's one of the most important factors I would tell investors is we want to be consistent, we want to be stable, and we don't want to overdo it because overtrading will not lead to good results.
It's really more about simplicity, balance, risk management, and proper stock selection. So, Palantir 140 put for May 15th. This is what I'm looking at. This is what I want to do. And I'm probably going to be opening up a position um that's going to be about 1% of my portfolio because I'm at around 8%.
I want to get closer to that 9%. And look, I actually don't really even think that Palantir is going to go down below 140. So, what's likely to happen is I'm just likely to walk away with this premium. And yeah, I'm cool with that. That's That's a really good premium. That's a That's an attractive percentage return within 28 days that I like, that I want to do.
Now, if Palantir does go below 140, even if it's at 139 and I get assigned here, so be it. That's going to increase my position. So, I I believe that Palantir is in a really good position because it's one of the only companies that's actually monetizing AI at scale right now. Every single dip on Palantir has historically been a buying opportunity because the narrative lags the fundamentals.
If you look at the fundamentals like revenue, margins, and adoption, it continues to grow. So, that's why when I look at a a strong support level, the stock really seems Okay, I can't say for sure, right? Because there's always going to be variation and volatility in the market. But to me, it looks like the support level is super strong.
There's a lot of investors that are backing this company that um have a lot of belief in the company. There's a whole community around it. And for me, what I'm looking to do is I want to have a strategy to acquire shares at a smart price. I don't want to be, you know, guessing. And it is, you know, kind of guessing is As many videos as you watch on YouTube, the stock market is very volatile and nobody really knows.
But when I look at a strategy for myself, I'd rather sell put options because if I get assigned, the risk is assignment, well, I get assigned for lower than the price we're trading at. So, for me, this is kind of the position that I want to open up very soon here as soon as the market opens up. If you guys want more information and learn how to do selling puts, I have a free ultimate guide, a free course that I made on YouTube.
It's the most important and valuable course that I have made in a very long time. It'll help you understand how to sell puts. Go ahead and check it out right here. You can understand how to do this on Palantir in greater detail and really master and get good at this strategy. I'll catch you guys in the next one.
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