저자: RamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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결론: 인도 증시는 장기 상승 구조이며 현재 고점 부담은 있지만 추가 상승 여지가 크다는 낙관론. 수급: 국내 개인 투자자 계좌가 3천만에서 1억 2천만으로 늘고 SIP 월 1.5조 루피 유입이 지속되며, 외국인도 비중 확대를 검토할 것이라고 주장. 밸류에이션: 니프티는 장기평균 대비 약 1~1.5표준편차 위에 있으나 과열 시 21~22배까지 갈 수 있고, 향후 5년간 현 수준에서 약 2배 상승 가능성 제시. 실적: 은행 실적이 애널리스트 예상을 크게 상회했고, 원자재 비용 하락으로 9월 분기 비금융·소비재·시멘트·철강 기업의 마진 확대 예상. 기술주: 인포시스 가이던스는 실망스럽지만 AI가 새로운 성장 프런티어이며 시간이 걸릴 것이라 봄. 본인은 디지털 기업 비중 확대 입장이며 조미토·페이티엠 등 신기술 기업의 재평가 가능성 언급. 은행: HDFC은행은 합병 후 과거 대비 마진·ROE가 낮아졌지만 여전히 우량하며 주택금융 시장 지배력 강화 예상. 리스크: 특정 종목은 과열 가능성이 있으나 업종별로 순환 상승이 나타날 것이며, 무분별한 매수는 경계해야 한다고 조언.
다듬은 글
foreign welcome to this very special broadcast of Market Masters we have a market Master ramdev Agarwal the chairman and co-founder of muthila swallow Securities and there is a reason why we have called him the indexes are at all-time highs 20 000 seems down the corner for the Nifty the mid cap and the small cap index after a long Gap have uh you know notched up significant gains and what is more important is that there isn't even one foreign brokerage left every one of them are queuing up to give more Rosie a picture about the Indian stock markets and the economy so is this a damn good long-term story or is this a point where everyone is confident so we should worry a little for a person who has seen all these kinds of Cycles uh these questions would be very important to ramdev thank you very much indeed for joining us over here today good morning and welcome to this morning yeah so I wanted to ask you first about this you know a positivity mid caps all-time highs small caps all-time Highs are you first worried that there is a bit of an overdoing in the near term a froth yeah so I had anticipated this in the sense that I didn't know about small large and all but I was knowing that one day foreigners have to join the you know this party because domestics since covered because of massive onboarding of retail from 30 million to 120 million of uh your accounts that has you know sip boom is on at 15 000 crores per month so that was that question the sell-off by foreigners now that that journey is still on retails are still on and on top of it now foreigners also want to bind first they want to buy in what they have sold and then they want to top it up because now India is a far more important Market in the global scene at about almost close to four trillion dollars we have four percent of global GDP yeah and even market cap was almost 100 trillion dollars the market cap worldwide we're at about 4 trillion but yeah about four trillion so we're again four percent but their allocation is nowhere at aggregate level their location may be about a percentage also if you see the total number so I think uh there's a lot of gap between what they should be allocating in the years ahead and decades ahead then what is the allocation today whether they take the call today or they take a pause and then come after three months or six months but I see on a five year ten year basis one way uh if I flow I mean of course we have to play our part of it in terms of copper turnings and other things and actually there's a likelihood that market May reread to a different level altogether let's send that from 2021 P multiple because the only way you can you can accommodate flow from both sides is either there is a massive boom in the paper flow from the corporates or the market itself relates to 25 26 times before and then of course paper flow will come so ah so that's the kind of situation right now something may change that's an excellent start to this conversation because these were the questions I wanted to ask you at the moment what do we worry about Nifty we worry that it is very close to its uh long-term average you know or in fact Higher One standard one and a half standard deviation above its long term average but in euphoric times it can go even to 21 22 times yeah so do you think that we should be worrying now that we are you know above the long term average can there be a sell-off before that yeah I mean you see there's so many moving parts but I think most importantly the corporate earnings we are right in the middle of the Season okay how do you measure that yeah yeah so so far uh not many disappointed but actually the banks have kind of really uh been fantastic I mean Way Way Beyond any analyst estimates uh so I think you've seen the last I mean on the Saturday yeah yeah I see a lot of everything was around 50 kind of a growth and I don't and the analyst will still say they'll be 17 for the year so I think that's where the thing is and uh even the cost inflation which happened because of post Ukraine and last year comedy inflation all that is year two what you call ah pass through and I think most probably in September quarter you'll see even more dramatic Fall In The Raw model course and hence margin expansion for the non-financial companies you know consumer companies or cement companies steel companies you see uh margin expenses you would say even entering at this time or continuing to increase your investment I mean I guess everyone is invested yeah but to continue to top up would be your game plan yeah yeah I mean don't bother too much about the market level because this all-time high is for last 75 years it is not for next five years we are going to see significantly higher uh Nifty sensex in next five years almost I would say double from here so no red flags in your mind you have to be cautious because you can't buy anything at any price you have to be careful what exactly you are buying you do your research and you're you know against topping up your portfolio understand that if you are 80 investor 90 invested you are finding an opportunity and getting into them and I think from here uh every company or every industry will move differently in a sense that everything will not fall off there is something which has run up too much that will follow up but uh simultaneous if you see something else will do very well like Tech was falling behind the curve but you see what happened in the last one month everybody was underway on Tech and they got punished so I think uh the story will keep changing and uh and I think the whole Market will keep I mean if both the flows continue and covered earnings remain intact at about 25 current is predicted I think we are in a good Wicket okay I am going to come back to the market questions but since you raised the issue of tech I do want to discuss one or two sectors which obviously are important Tech yeah what would your personal view be the uh you know guidance we got from Infosys was a bit uh you know heartbreaking shattering a confidence shattering what's your sense is it already time to dip in or do you want to wait and see how these things how the cloud clears see this deck has a I mean history of it's a it's a adaptive kind of a thing in the same that every three four five years there is a new a new thing coming in like Y2K came people came for bodies you know those who can quickly sorted their problem then came the Erp Erp boom then came the.com boom then came the you know all this webs and everything online so uh the 5G digital digitization now digital then all this now it is AI now it is now it is being talked that AI is a yet another next Frontier so it is going to be it is going to be different it is going to be huge but it is going to take time right now everybody is trying to understand what they can do and as the applications they come I think the mandates will become bigger clients will also be clear what all they can do and even the service suppliers they'll also be very clear what kind of competencies they need to build so that clients can be taken care of you personally are using is dip to buy I'm allocated in the sense that even before that I mean we were not grossly underweight or something like that except that we were much more on the mid-sized large midsize its for a growth differential but basically we were we were there because we knew that because he look at the today Market moves in U.S it's only about tech companies in India it is led by financials so someday we will follow the attack but our digital side has done very well in the tech all the digital companies which got hammered uh post uh in last 12 months I think they have come back very well which is what I wanted to ask you I mean zomato your I have read your reports and you all are very bullish do you think that there is a Second Coming For You know the paytms zomatoes uh Nike's everyone who is who was a marquee name in um Eco no seriously they have a second company they are well funded uh but valuations are now yeah well see well it is very tough to figure out the valuation in a conventional way so if you do valuation based on PE or something like that there is no e so what kind of P multiple you talk about so it's all in the first thing is its option value second you have to also do lot of adjustment in terms of trying to understand underlying value uh in the sense that their their books don't have any capitalization of any expenses that's true so that you have to adjust in some way and then try to see or maybe you see uh say four or five years out if you have the courage to see four five years out for these companies and try to do some kind of commercial P multiple soup but this is the frontier ah this new new tech companies like zomatoes of the world or swiggy or policy Bazaar paytm I think these are companies which will I mean they are well funded and I think they will they'll have good time they'll cut fresh ground okay let me come to the more conventional the usual banking the one that we should discuss because it's 40 of the market yes now would you think that HDFC Bank after the merger May underperform because you know there are there is a lot to lead would there be any worries would you rather bet on you know ICICI or kotak because uh of the fact that they have to carry a large load it's not about this or that I mean every bank has its own merits this is the most successful Bank in the last 25 years and they have created and the CEO has gone on record saying that we'll create another HDFC Bank in next four years what more you want I mean your index is going to do 12 13 and they're guarding for 18 uh I don't know Top Line the bottom line but clearly and so I think it's an outperforming stock that doesn't mean that there is no other bank which cannot perform so I think in their own Merit uh uh you know this needs to be looked at very seriously because there is no everybody is kind of bit skeptical about their Outlook but look at what they've created and the way they are going about it and this merger post at the time of murder a lot of the adjustment of the owners I'll tell you what I mean we are always used to seeing HDFC Bank the best in margins among the big Banks the best in Roe among the big Banks now they are second in both these aspects with respect to if you compare it to I say Bank I'm not still drinking because it it's smaller in size compared to them so you know that worry is there but size they're way ways yeah the dominance in the marketplace when you say that I'm a 10 12 and 15 17 you see in bad time see right this is a good time in good time when the credit cycle is good it doesn't really matter that much but there is a little Ripple in the economy and then you see how this tall big guys uh they'll stand up and I'm not comparing SGC with any any other bank I'm saying the agency alone because they can't compare their size is different their growth rate will be different base effect is different so but what about the disruption to Housing Finance itself because they were anyway very good in Housing Finance and now you have cheap money cheap raw material to boot yeah so does that make life difficult for other housing finance companies you should know it better you have one no I think they'll they'll become super Prime in the sense that uh it will be very difficult to compete with them because now they have distribution of HJC Bank as well as you see and cost of money which is Invincible yeah so and they knew the game very well see lot of time what happens Is that ah you you are actually not that good in Housing Finance but the one one thing they know very well is the Housing Finance so the kind of Crosshair they can do so it's all promising thing but how they execute on the ground that we need to see over period of time but I think they will other other super Prime lenders they have to be really really cautious on that front Okay so that's a challenge to even the existing uh in that comes the bracket yeah the bigger challenge to the non-bank space is coming from Reliance jio Finance but that question after the break give me a minute we are back buzzar audience you will get to see the entire interview after marketing oh
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