저자: DanIves · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적(32.5B 가이던스)은 AI 수요 강세를 확인하며, 블랙웰 지연 우려는 해소됐다고 주장. 기업·정부 AI capex가 아직 초기(전체 기업의 약 3~5%만 도입)라 2차 확산 여지가 크다고 봄. GPU 1달러당 기술 섹터 8~10배 승수효과를 근거로 2025년까지 기술주 강세를 전망. 12개월 내 엔비디아 시총 1조 달러 기대 언급. 실적 직후 주가 하락은 기대치 과열 탓으로 해석.
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look as me and you have talked about a lot like it's all about putting the data points together and you come out that call I'd actually say incrementally more bullish not even just on Nvidia but on the overall Ai and because of the blackw deletes if there was going to be one what I view headwind or black cloud they put that to rest in terms of yields and and any of the issues there demands has shpp and Supply anywhere from 10 to 15 for one right so when I look at the underlying Enterprise men not just in big Tech but even like when you look at Sovereign and you look at what I think ultimate is GNA be the rest of sort of Enterprise this is a story I still you call it bottom of the first half of the second inning I continue to view it it's a bron in high school and act so you really so you really do still believe it's that early it's we're only only three per maybe 5% tops of Enterprises globally have even gone down this path right so it comes down to like when you know sometimes I think like it's very easy like not see farest to the trees like in terms of like okay October quarter 32 and a half billion Whispers 33 billion but now the focus Bo this is a company ultimately going toward 50 75 billion eventually 100 billion per quarter yeah and I think that to me is really the trend not just for NVIDIA but for what just means for the rest of the T in an unbelievable twist that could only belong to the storied annals of stock market folklore Nvidia has skyrocketed from a market cap of $360 billion in early 2023 to an astounding $3.4 trillion this epic Ascent is gripping headlines everywhere as one of the world's leading Tech paradises nvidia's Ascent is largely attributed to its unparalleled dominance in the realm of data center gpus especially those deployed for artificial intelligence model development as AI quickly weaves itself into the fabric of modern operations Nvidia stands as a beacon nearly overwhelmed by the constant demand from Tech Titans like Microsoft Amazon and alphabet but behind this golden facade of meteoric growth lies an Achilles heel a deep dependency on a select few lavish Shoppers today we embark on unraveling how nvidia's ground shaking rise might contain the kernels of its vulnerability welcome back everyone to invest cracy yeah and I think that's a great question I think actually the biggest thing that's not being placed in the tech capx from the Stars priced in what's not being priced in is the incremental spend that I think you're going to see from T the incremental spend in fortifies and governments I mean you if I look on typical edifies and you think government 8 10% sometimes 12% overall spend that's not numbers yeah so so as this all plays out and any any company any government it all starts with the red phone it's gent there's only one where are you getting the chip it's a new go it's a new gold new oil what we're witnessing in nvidia's astounding growth story is akin to stock market fireworks but just as a night sky bruises after the last flare there's more beneath its brilliant Ascent than meets the eye Nvidia has revolutionized its AI Centric strategy and with over 72% of global organizations engaging in some form of AI as reported by McKenzie and Company the sky appears not the limit but merely a mere Milestone past sorry Elon Musk in its fiscal 2025 second quarter Nvidia showcased Revenue Rockets revealing a 122% uplift from the year prior to a staggering $30 billion with its data center segment alone contributing $26.3 billion diving deeper nvidia's 10q filing for Q2 eily highlights that almost half of this miraculous $30 billion narrative depended heavily on just four customers it seems nvidia's playing a bit of a risky chess game leaning heavily on these top tier players a posture that's giving it a winning streak as well as some seasoned investors an increasingly furrowed brow an analyst even suggests Microsoft leads the pack as customer a sinking significant sums into Blackwell hardware and that's apart from its broader 55.7 billion allocation toward AI development let's pause for a second here take a step back and just in true stock market Pursuit ownership of Nvidia gpus is about as exclusive as getting past the Velvet Rope of High Finance even Bernard Arno might have to sweet talk the bouncer and I think when now it's going to start to happen Josh at that point the next month and we'll we'll be in Asia next week anyone that's doing Asia supply chain checks it's actually increasing in terms of demand over supply all of a sudden what starts to happening is next drum roll starts hold on a second 32 and a half probably a sandbag number all of a sudden stock starts to you know what I believe continue to creep back up and I believe we're looking for trillion markab for NVIDIA next six months I I just don't see what's stopping it given all the demand we're seeing from hyperscalers from Enterprise the use cases now are exploding that's why paler people dismiss them look at them look what look at service now look what we're seeing with Oracle that to me is the next phase the use cases and Jensen hit on that a bit I want to talk about demand this is you you said there will come a there will be a time that competition from AMD and others ramp up but essentially a$1 trillion of AI capex over the next few years is coming its way and last night's conference call further confirmed this demand Outlook the stage is set for tech stocks to move higher into year end and 2025 in our opinion as the fed and Powell kick off its rate cutting cycle macrosoft Landing Remains The Path and Tech spending on AI remains a generational spending cycle just starting to hit the shores of the tech sector we continue to estimate for every $1 spent on an Nvidia GPU chip there is an 8 to $10 multiplier across the tech sector which speaks to our firmly bullish view of tech stocks over the next year so you're very constructive on Tech going into year end and heading into 2025 and that multiplier effect because of the GPU spend means a lot of opportunity for a lot of stocks not just Nvidia that's exact like see that's exactly what we really want and what we talked to investors about is the multiplier because everyone oh it's Nvidia it's Microsoft no this this now kicks off a cycle we basically have never seen before and anytime someone puts like the Cisco comparison tovid show the chart it looks I covered Tech back then the div Cisco 90% of their customers were essentially leverage startups athers and all the CX who who's the customers of Nvidia it's comanies with 1.2 trillion on the balance sheet and and government so so my whole point is that I get the comparison looks great in a chart Apple you cannot compare what we see here it's ental Fourth Industrial Revolution that's being built out and I think now it's the next phase it's the software acquires it's infrastructure it's other parts of semis it's names like AMD it's names like in cyber security how you going to protect the workloads so that to me is really where I everything that's what why I'm so excited about second third fourth derivative the snag without a wide customer base nvidia's concentration risk escalates with Microsoft Amazon meta platforms and Tesla all scooping up Graphics processing units like they were Black Friday doorbusters Nvidia ties its fate to the es and flows of these conglomerates AI a plom still The Narrative isn't all drama and potential rupture nvidia's hamstrings have Stellar Springs the release of it Blackwell based gb200 systems offering a phenomenal 30 times the AI inference speed up of previous iterations illustrates serious staying power the system's cost-efficient architecture marks a potential pivot for NVIDIA in making trillion parameter models accessible not only to the wealthiest tech houses but to broader developers democratizing the AI space just don't expect Grandma's computer to handle it all by next Christmas it's not to say nvidia's invincible armor is free of chinks as detailed competitors like Advanced Micro Devices are closing in with their chips debuting a competitive Shadow to nvidia's torch lit path even Microsoft Amazon and alphabet are designing their own data center Hardware potentially offering more budget friendly options for their internal needs down the line what remains for NVIDIA is the ongoing vigilance of Revenue sources and the foresight to maintain its technological Edge a hedge for unforeseen day I want to I want to quote you this was the opening paragraph of your post earnings uh research note nvidia's earnings last night was front and center globally as the Godfather of AI Jensen are the torchbearers of this AI Revolution the tech stall warart delivered massive quote drop the mic numbers yet again that easily beat the street with a Top Line That Grew 122% From A year ago quarter with 30 billion of Revenue and a robust outlook for the October quarter of 32.5 billion 80% growth while some buide whisper expectations were a tad higher for the October quarter We Believe nvidia's surging AI chip demand Blackwell delay cons concerns laid robust Outlook and a meteoric Enterprise P pipeline speaks to this AI Revolution just starting to kick off its next phase of growth I think a lot of people had that reaction but the stock price didn't what do you think is the main reason for why we saw Nvidia sell off almost uh six or s% in the immediate aftermath of that report I just think it's like people expect jokovic to win 606060 if if it's 6'3 oh lost three so the point is like you're expecting like okay could they give a 34 billion number just another it was basically what I view is call it you know half a billion higher than sort of Base maybe a little BL whisper I think it ends up probably being close to a 34 billion number because I think now Nvidia recognizes when you're in this parabolic grad especially with Blackwell there's no reason for them to give a 34 billion even though I think that's open where it good ultimately nvidia's Rich tapestry of success in revolutionizing Data Center Technology with gpus capable of Cutting Edge AI processes makes it a compelling investment story albeit not without its plot twists with a towering market cap and a diverse clientele that is investing heavily in AI infrastructure the Outlook appears bullish for the Juggernaut Jensen hang's optimism for data center spending cresting one billion dollar over 5 years hinges on nvidia's entrenched foothold transforming conceptual AI dreams into hardwar driven realities for investors navigating the ever shifting landscape of tech stocks Nvidia Stands Tall not just as a player but a potential Market Kingpin provided IT addresses its Revenue concentration currently priced at $141.25 the room for expansion seems tangible yet one must tread with awareness of potential Market Corrections still as forecasts hover optimistically above Nvidia carries the Allure of a stock with high stakes and potentially remarkable returns how does this unfolding story of nvidia's fast-paced Ascension resonate with your portfolio aspirations as the AI arms race manifests in real time inquiring minds might want to explore if Nvidia holds the right cards for their investment strategy share your insights and let's delve further into this high-tech Chronicle eo
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