저자: Justin · 외국인
요약 보기
치폴레는 최근 1년간 약 30% 하락했으나 10년간 성장세(EPS 연 15%, ROIC 평균 13%)가 뛰어나다. 최근 분기 comp sales -4%, 영업이익률 하락으로 조정 중이다. 할인된 영업이익 모델 기준 적정가치는 약 $39로, 현재가 $40은 적정가 수준이다. 본인은 안전마진을 위해 $25~28 부근에서 매수를 고려하며, 현재는 매수하지 않겠다는 입장이다. 최근 1년간 가격 대비 가성비 저하도 우려 요인으로 꼽았다.
다듬은 글
Chipotle Mexican Grill stock is down roughly 30% this year and this is a stock that has done quite well for investors over the last 10 years being up 185%. So it being down 30% this year is the stock a buy. Let's talk about it. So Chipotle is certainly one of my favorite faster restaurants to go to.
In fact, I would say over the last two decades is probably my favorite one that I have gone to. And for a while, I would say almost a decade, I would go there every other month at least because I've always felt, you know, I got good, you know, food for, you know, the value that I'm paying for, right?
I always felt like if I was spending $10 on a burrito, I got my $10 worth. In fact, a few years ago, I found out a little hack on their online app where you can go on there and you can do three modifications. You could do like half of one meat, half another meat. You could do both their rices, both their beans.
There's different modifications you can do. And I always get this huge burrito for about 10 bucks. And I always felt, man, I was getting really good value for what I was paying. And so I've always gone back to the the company quite frequently because I always think it tastes good. It's good value. You can see what they're making right behind the counter.
They use a lot of organic uh products as well, too. So, uh, there's a lot I like about Chipotle, and this is a company that has grown huge. I mean, even even over the last three years alone, the company's earnings per share has grown about 30% per year. So, this is a fast growing company. Even though they're a $50 billion market cap, which is a pretty good size fast food company, that is a certainly a midcap uh company overall, they're still growing.
I mean, they're going to they I think they came out with 60 new stores just in last quarter. They're scheduled to have around 300 new stores in 2025 and now they're actually getting into to China as well. So, they're expanding their international footprint, too. So, uh there's still a lot to like about Chipotle, but they've had a lot of issues over the last two quarters.
In fact, uh this last quarter alone, the company's comp sales were down 4%. So it doesn't take a genius to figure out uh that's pretty bad. So comparable sales from the previous year are down 4% on average at their stores. That is certainly a a problem overall. Uh operating margins have dropped a little bit as well too.
Revenue has dropped and so that's why we're seeing a pullback um in in the market right now. Why the stock has fallen about 30% overall. So, is it good value right now or not at $40 for the stock which it's trading at as I do this video? Well, let's first jump into the financials of the company. I want to look at a 10-year history for financials for the company.
Looking at the balance sheet, income statement, also the cash flow statement as well. And then we'll also jump into an intrinsic value on the company uh based on some metrics and revenue projections and earnings projections I have in this video. Now, if this is the first of you watching my name is Justin.
I would consider myself a value investor. You know, I'm trying to find companies that have really great balance sheets. I want to make sure that they have little to no debt, plenty of cash, plenty of working capital. I want to make sure that they have a good management team. They have some kind of competitive advantage as well.
Uh I want to make sure that the company has, you know, shown that they can, you know, have a really high return on invested capital. I think earnings power and return on capital are two of the most important metrics to look at when it comes to companies in in general. Now, historical numbers doesn't mean anything or project anything for the future, but it's good to look at overall.
So, I certainly have, you know, put together a portfolio of stocks that I'm very fortunate to be being in the market for the last few years. And I did a video not too long ago on all the stocks in my portfolio. If you want to go check that out, I'll put it up here. Uh, but let's jump over and take a look at the financial history for Chipotle and kind of see where they've been over the last 10 years.
So, on your screen right now, you see the rule one numbers that come directly from Phil Town's philosophy if you follow him. And you can see where the company has grown over the last 10 years. So, their sales per share has grown from roughly $3 back in 2015 to $863 here today. That is a 12% keer growth when it comes to revenue per year which is phenomenal.
Earnings per share of the last 10 years has grown 15% per year. You look at free cash flow per share has grown 16%. Book value has grown 7% and then return on equity and return on invested capital have averaged 24% and 13% respectively. Now, over the last 10 years, the market cap has grown from 21 billion all the way up to 53 billion here today.
Their low point was back in 2018 where they were trading around $8 billion for their market cap. So, obviously, tremendous growth that we're seeing. We're seeing double digit growth from sales per share, earnings per share, free cash flow per share. We're seeing return on equity and return invested capital well over 10%.
Now book value per share is interesting because it's trading around 7% at least that or a kagger growth that is but they've been buying back a lot of shares which we'll see here in a second which has impacted that that number but as far as earnings power for this company has been very very good and that's exactly what I want to see uh if I were to buy in a company like Chipotle.
So now let's go take a look at some balance sheet metrics look at some more P&L metrics and then we'll kind of get into the historical PE of the company as well. So, let's take a look at some debt numbers for the company. Now, their long-term debt payoff is at zero years. So, that is looking at their free cash flow, and they have no long-term debt.
So, obviously, it doesn't take any time to pay it off because they have no long-term debt, which is fantastic. Their debt equity is over 100% at 135% right now, and their current ratio is at 1.7. So even though their debt to equity is is higher than I would like to see, I'm not really worried about it because they do have a solid balance sheet overall.
In fact, I would rate their balance sheet an A. And something to keep in mind, too, is the debt to equity. The reason why we see it tick up in 2019 is directly because of ASC842, which is lease standards for the accounting industry. I'm an accountant myself. I'm the finance leader at my company, so I understand the standard really well.
In fact, I did a recent video really kind of looking at Lululemon, but you can apply it to really any company out there at all. If you want to learn more about what ASC842 is and how it's impacting balance sheets, particularly when it comes to debt for a company, I'll put a link to that video up here.
Uh, go check it out. I think it's really important for investors to really understand how the debt flows into the balance sheet and how ASC842 is impacting numbers from 2019 and beyond. So, definitely go check that out. Now, let's go look at some P&L ratios and look at historical P for the business.
All right, so here are some P&L ratios. That's profit and loss, also known as income statement. And it's fantastic. You can see gross margins have grown from, you know, roughly 38% 10 years ago to 40% here today. You know, we can see depreciation amorization actually shrinking from 27% of revenue down to 22%.
Their operating income or EBIT is actually interesting enough it looks like it's flat from 2015 to 2025 here but you can see over the last four years it's grown from 11% all the way up to 17%. They've averaged 11% over the last 10 years or so. Their IBIDA looks fantastic. They're right now around 20% overall.
So really really solid numbers. like seeing those margins expand, especially when you're seeing depreciation, amorization and SGNA uh shrinking at the same time. That's fantastic overall. And lastly, let's take a look at historical P and the total shares for the company. So over the last 10 years, the PE has averaged a 77, which is pretty interesting.
Right now it's at 35 which has been really the lowest we've seen in the last 10 years overall unless you go back to 2016 when it was at a 28. So from a historical point of view it is quite low. Now shares outstanding have decreased almost every single year going from about 1, you know, 5 billion shares back in 2015 to about 1.3 billion shares here today.
So they've bought back roughly 1% of their shares per year over the last 10 years. So I think it's really important to be aware of that PE ratio, right? And because that 35 in my opinion is extremely high for a lot of companies. Companies that are getting a 35 PE usually means they have a ton of growth.
you're talking, you know, a company that's going to grow 30, 40, 50% per year on on the bottom line. Uh these are companies also that probably have really high return on capital. Uh really consistent numbers overall and we've seen that in Chipotle. So I I definitely think you know you could make a strong case that you know a higher PE is uh certainly valid for a company like Chipotle but keep in mind it is trading at a really high premium.
I mean fast food companies don't typically trade at a 35p and keep in mind the stock has fallen 30% too. So historically the the P has been around 50 to 70. So, in general, the market has been willing to pay a high premium for Chipotle overall, but they've been buying back shares, which has been helping their stock price as well.
Now, let's take a look at intrinsic value or what a fair value for the stock is. I use my discounted operating earnings model to do that. So, let's transition and go take a look at that right now. So, here's my discounted operating earnings model. So, what I'm saying is I believe the company's going to grow their revenue from 11 billion in 2024 to about 12.1 billion in 2025.
I think it'll continue to grow all the way up to 19 billion in 2029. So, that is roughly 11% growth on the top line over the next several years. At the same time, I think the operating margins uh this year will fall in around 17.2 2% last year they were at 17.3%. I do think it's going to expand as their gross margin expands as their SGNA and their depreciation amorization also shrink as well.
So I think they have a really good opportunity to gain another two to three uh two two to 3% on the operating margin. So I think it'll grow to roughly 19% over the next several years. I also believe the company's going to buy back roughly 1% of their shares per year. So that is going to make their operating income grow roughly 14% per year over the next several years.
So if this all comes to fruition, their future stock price would be roughly $79 five years out. So that gets me a fair value for the stock of $39. And the stock as I do this video right now is trading at $40. Now, if we take a look at all my valuation models, my discount operating earnings model we just looked at suggest a fair value $39.
A buy price for me would be $27 for that particular model. Payback time suggests buying at $23. 10 cap suggests buying at $16. And the margin of safety calculator suggests buying at $28. And again, the stock as I do this video is trading at $40. So, if I believe the stock is worth $39 and the stock is at $40 here today, why wouldn't I just go buy it that's so close to my fair value?
Well, the reason for that is I want some type of margin of safety. I want to have a basically a discount based on what I think the company or the stock is worth. Keep in mind that that PE historically has been around, you know, 50 to a 70. Right now it's at 35. If for whatever reason the company's growth really starts slowing down, that PE is going to shrink and it's going to significantly impact the stock price overall.
And for me, I I think it's incredibly important. One of the most important things as an investor is know how to value companies. and I teach you how to do that on my Patreon if you're interested in knowing how to value companies yourself. I'll put a link down below. Go check it out. You also get access to my Discord channel with another 150 value investors in there as well and exclusive posts on my Patreon, too.
So, if you're interested, go check that out. Love to see you over there. Going back to Chipotle, though, you know, it's one of those things where it's been one of my favorite restaurants to go to over the last two decades. I said that beginning of this video. However, this is a big disclaimer is that I have not been to Chipotle for about 12 months.
The reason why I have not been to Chipotle for 12 months is I don't feel that I'm getting the value I used to get from Chipotle. The reason that I, you know, I used to go there, I'd spend $10 on a burrito. Felt like I got this huge fat burrito and it was worth the money. Now that same burrito, if I go get it now, is around $13.
So, the price has increased and I have noticed really about 12 to 15 months ago that the portions have have gone down. So, not only has that burrito cost me 15 to 20% more, I also getting less for what I'm paying. And with having less uh value to me when buying that burrito now, I have so many more options to go to.
Depending on where you live, you have a lot of different fast food, you know, restaurants. You have McDonald's, you have Burger King, you have Carl's Jr., you have Hardies, you have um uh Five Guys, you have uh Smashburger that that's near me, uh Slim Chicken. I mean, you could just go on and on and on.
And there and I feel like I can just get more value other places. I actually got a dinner at at at Chili's uh a few weeks ago uh for the family. I end up getting I think it was around 11 or 12. I end up getting a restaurantized burger, a side, an appetizer, and a drink. Where then I go to Chipotle and I spend 12 or $13.
I just get a burrito. Um, and it's still great. I It still tastes great. I think the quality is great. I just don't feel like the value is quite there where it used to be. And I think that's where the inflection point is with Chipotle right now. Keep in mind, they have a new CEO that came on board when their CEO went and left to go to Starbucks.
So, they're dealing with a lot right now. I still think that Chipotle has a long runway ahead of them. The international growth is really I think going to expand the company, but here in the United States, uh it it's a problem. I mean, comparable sales have shrunk and they're going to have to work through that.
They really are. But they at least have a really good product uh that that's out there. I just don't think the value is as good. Now, going back to the stock itself, you know, I would be interested to start buying the stock if it dropped into, you know, the the mid to high 20s. To me, that would signify some value in the stock.
And at that point, it would be worth buying into. I just think at at $40 right now, you know, it's there's a bit of risk there based on what they potentially could do from an earnings standpoint, right? So for me, I want to be able to buy into a company has at least a 10% earnings power. Uh return on capital well over 10%.
Chipulti has been able to do that uh pretty easily over the last 10 years. Uh but again, they're in a flection point right now. And you know, there's no reason to rush into stocks and buy them right away, right? So I want to see how Jupy does over the next couple quarters. Do they do they reverse their comparable sales?
Uh they're still growing. they're going to add 300 more stores this year. So, their earnings growth should continue. But that comparable sales number from stores, particularly in the United States, I think is is pretty important because it kind of tells you what the customer thinks about the product and the value that they're getting right now overall.
But I would love to hear from you guys. I mean, what do you think about Chipotle Mexican Grill? Do you own the stock? Do you want to own the stock? What do you think about my fair value of $40? Love to hear from you guys in the comments section. Thank you so much for watching. I really appreciate. I'll catch you on the other side. Take care and God bless.
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