저자: J.M0NEY채널진행자—영상내주출연자는진행자본인이며소속없음 · 외국인
요약 보기
Li Lu(Himalaya Capital) 2022년 2분기 13F 분석 영상. 결론: Li Lu는 메타(META)를 전량 매도하고 알파벳(GOOGL/GOOG)을 추가 매수했으며, 메타 사업 리스크를 이유로 들었다. 메타 매도 배경: 2021년 4분기 메타를 매수했으나 메타버스 발표 이후 주가 급락(약 370달러→300달러 하회). 2022년 초 매출 성장률 3~11% 경고, 영업이익률 2020년 2분기 41~42%에서 최근 29%로 하락 추세. 메타버스 투자 비용은 수십~수백억 달러로 불확실하며 레거시 사업(인스타그램·페이스북) 수익으로 충당 중이라는 점을 진행자가 리스크로 지적. 인텔과 메타가 유사한 고위험·고보상 전환 국면이라고 비교. 경영진 실행력(저커버그, 겔싱어)이 관건이라고 언급. 알파벳 평가: 유튜브 수익모델(콘텐츠 비용 없이 광고수익 공유)이 우수하고, 광고 매출은 업계 부진 속에서도 추정치를 상회했다고 긍정적으로 평가. 알파벳은 사업을 분사해 장기 복리를 낼 수 있는 기업으로 설명. 리 루 포트폴리오 현황(13F 기준): 1위 마이크론(MU, 유지), 2위 뱅크오브아메리카(BAC), 3위 알파벳 GOOG(추가 매수), 그 외 버크셔해서웨이·애플(AAPL)·알파벳 GOOGL(신규). 알파벳 비중은 약 10~15% 추정. 마이크론: 반도체 업황 부진과 가이던스 하향 언급, 다른 가치투자자(테퍼, 클라만)는 감축. 진행자는 마이크론 보유 입장 유지. 진행자 개인 견해: 리 루의 메타 매도 이유는 추측이며, 메타 장기 불확실성 때문으로 추정. 향후 필 타운, 테퍼 13F 분석 예고.
다듬은 글
Hey everybody, welcome back to the channel. I'm doing another video on a super investor and this one is Li Lu who runs Himalaya Capital. He is known as the Warren Buffett of China. In fact, I was just watching a video from Monish Pabrai and I don't know how accurate this is, but it came from Monish so I'll go with it that it's that's true.
While Li Lu was in college, he literally would, you know, get money at the beginning of the semester to pay for that semester, but there would be a float of maybe four or five months before he had to pay some of that money back. He would invest that money and he actually grew it to be a million dollars during the time he went to school, which really blows my mind uh that he was able to do that.
Uh I've never verified if that's true or not, but I'll I'll take it for what it's worth since it came from Monish, but uh you know, he's just an incredible incredible investor. He manages a few billion dollars, so it's not a small portfolio by any means and he made a couple of big moves in his portfolio this past quarter, which ended in June 30th, 2022.
Now, what we're going to be taking a look at today is his 13F filing. So, those are stocks that are American stock exchanges. I'm not looking at other stocks that he owns in other exchanges, maybe like, you know, for example, like the European exchange or Hong Kong exchange, for example. These are just the 13F filings.
Now, I did quickly look on Tiger Terminal and there were no other changes that I saw that were other than his 13F filing we'll talk about today. So, I just want to mention that real quick. So, let's just jump right into this thing. And the stock he sold during the quarter was Meta. He completely sold out of Meta Platforms, ticker symbol M E T A.
And I've had several people reach out to me asking me, you know, what are my thoughts on him selling out of Meta Platforms. Well, well, before I get into that, let's talk about the stock that he added and he also bought new and they're actually kind of the same company. So, what he added to during the quarter was Alphabet, ticker symbol g o o g.
Now, he did buy the other Google, ticker symbol g o o g l. So, again, same company, different ticker symbols there, but he just added to his Google position. And so, Google right now is, you know, roughly about 15% of his portfolio if you add in all the rest of the stocks that he owns, between 10 and 15% in total.
So, he basically sold out of Meta Platforms and then he kind of moved that money or part of that money into to Google. So, I I think that that's something important to consider when we talk about Meta Platforms. So, you know, Meta Platforms it's interestingly Lulu because he bought Meta Platforms in the fourth quarter of 2021 and that is pretty unique because that is when Zuckerberg came out and announced that they were pivoting to the metaverse and that's when really the stock started crashing or collapsing at that time.
If I remember correctly, the stock was trading around like $370 a share. Quickly dropped all the way below $300 a share. And then, you know, beginning of this year they warned about, you know, revenue dropping, basically going down between 3 and 11% growth. Historically, last, you know, several years on a keger basis, they've been in the, you know, 30% plus range.
So, that was a huge drop. So, the stock dropped even more. So, if we dig into Meta Platforms and we talk about the negatives with that company right now, you know, there's a few different things. The biggest thing that stands out to me is the whole metaverse. We have We have no idea how much is going to cost, first off, right?
It's going to cost billions and billions of dollars and Meta Platforms right now is taking money from their legacy businesses like, for example, Instagram and Facebook platforms and they're taking that free cash flow and they're they're putting into their R&D expenses, which is reducing their their profit overall.
And because of that, they're taking all the hits on the expense right now to hopefully have, you know, revenue and maybe less expense in the future, but the capex piece, so capital expenditures, is going to cost billions and billions of dollars, but nobody knows exactly what that's going to be. Is that Is that 50 billion?
Is that 100 billion? We have no idea and another piece of that, is it going to work, right? I you know, I mean, he you know, obviously Meta Platforms has been, you know, with the Reality Labs division, been in Oculus and other things, so they've been in virtual reality, but the metaverse is a whole different animal and I do think that is the future and where some company is going to be able to reap that that those rewards, you know, and why not Meta Platforms?
You know, but on the same side, they're spending a ton of money now and there's a lot of what ifs going on and I really feel that Meta Platforms and Intel are kind of going through similar things. Completely different industries, but if you look at Intel, for example, they obviously make processing chips and their processing chip segment of their business has been hurting.
They're they still have a really good free cash flow with their legacy businesses, but it is going down with AMD and Nvidia AMD specifically really eating into their space. That is hurting the company, so they're pivoting, just like Meta Platforms is and they're trying to build some foundry segment of their business and again, that's going to cost a lot of money, too.
So, there's a lot of like high-risk, high-reward type play. Same thing with Meta Platforms. Meta Platforms, they only two segments of their business that make any money is Instagram and Facebook. In fact, they make a lot of money. Their operating margins just on those two segments of their business is 39% according to their last 10-Q.
But their operating margins have been going down. If you go back, I I want to say I'm doing it off the top of my head, I think it's the second quarter of 2020, their operating margins were in the low 40s, like 41, 42% for the entire company. Right now it's at 29% as of this last quarter. That is a massive drop.
And I expect that to continue to drop, and I don't know where that's eventually going to fall. I don't know if that's 20 or 25%, but it's because of all the R&D expenses that they're that they're acquiring or or, you know, basically expensing in order to go towards the the metaverse along with all the money they're spending on capex as well.
So, they're kind of getting a hit two different ways there. And is it going to work? We just don't know at this point. But their, you know, legacy businesses are still profitable, and they're very, very profitable on that standpoint. But there's there's a lot of concern there, and just like there's concern with Meta, there's concern with Intel, right?
But I think it always goes back to who's leading the company. You know, Zuckerberg is leading Meta Platforms, Gelsinger is leading Intel, and if those if the management can, you know, execute correctly on what their plan is, it's going to work out. But those are just kind of the gambles or the bets that we have as shareholders.
And obviously Li Lu Li Lu looked at the situation, and back in the fourth quarter, you know, he thought, you know, maybe this is I'm guessing, I'm speculating, I haven't heard him say anything, but maybe he thought this might be a good opportunity even with the metaverse. But something triggered him to say, "Okay, I got to get out now." Maybe it's because operating margins are going to continue to decrease, and maybe, you know, the the KPIs and stuff with within Facebook, within Meta Platforms have been going down quarter over quarter or maybe that's not where he wants to be or simply he looks at Google, he looks at Alphabet and says, "You know what?
That company is on the uptrend. Meta Platforms was just too much risk and their legacy business is you know, hurting as far as still profitable but is is going down on a operating margins, profit, profitability each single quarter and it's it's eating away at the total business cuz they got to put it into the metaverse, you know?
So, that that that's kind of, you know, interesting. I I I personally really like both companies in different ways. I think Alphabet has an incredible business. I mean, the YouTube platform that you guys are watching today, I think is the best business model that is out there, period. If you think about it, you know, YouTube, Google doesn't have to make any content.
They just have this platform that's sitting there and they have all these content creators like myself that goes on there and actually post content and then they get to take half the money. So, Google takes half the ad revenue, us content creators get the other half and all well is good, I guess. But it's it's just a beautiful business model and if you think about it, too, I mean, YouTube you can pay for, you know, YouTube if you want if you want but a lot of YouTube that people watch including this is free.
You don't have to pay at all to get on just watch a YouTube videos unless you subscribe to some of the YouTube things that are out there. But in general, you don't have to pay where, you know, streaming, if whether you're doing Netflix or you know, maybe going through Paramount or going through, you know, Warner Brothers, going through Disney, you have to pay for that.
YouTube is free, which is you know, fantastic for the viewer and then us content creators and Google can make money off the ad revenue as well. So, there's a lot going on here but um not crazy surprised um just because Meta Platforms was a smaller position in his portfolio. So, it's not like he just made it a 10% position right away.
It seemed like he was just uh kind of treading lightly, put some money into it, and just kind of waited to see what was going to happen. And there's something that triggered him that he did not like, and then uh kind of pulled out from there. And and my my assumption would be that um you know, that it's going to be a tough year for Meta Platforms, especially on the advertising side.
And it's interesting with Alphabet, even though the advertising has been down across the board, across a lot of different companies, uh they still beat estimates on advertising revenue, which is absolutely incredible. And I think with Google, too, uh they're one of those companies that can uh be, you know, long-term compounder, where they can spin off different segments of their business.
You know, for example, you know, they have the Google phone. Uh obviously, they have, you know, the Google browsers. But there's other things I think they can spin off or do within Google that we may not know about now. Like, for example, Disney, right? They spin off Disney Plus because of all the legacy content that that they have.
Uh and then they can still create. Um I think Google's that type of company. They're a spawner, I guess is what I'm trying to say. Uh they're not to say that that Meta Platform is not, but if you look at Meta Platform, typically, the stuff they had, you know, Zuckerberg went out and bought. You know, he created Facebook, but Instagram, uh you know, WhatsApp, Messenger, those are all segments of the business he he went out and bought.
And that's not necessarily a bad thing. That's how Microsoft has grown over time. Uh but Google's just a different animal. I think they're they're just a natural spawner. Um so, yeah, interesting. I mean, I I'd I'd love to hear from you guys. I mean, why do you think he sold Google or sold Meta Platforms to buy Google?
Now, um now let's talk about what's in his portfolio right now. Again, we're only talking about the 13F uh filing. So, positions that are in his 13F filing. And so, those will be on the American Stock Exchange. His biggest position right now, according to his 13Fs, is Micron, ticker symbol MU. And there's a lot of debate whether he was going to sell or keep.
There's a lot of super investors, value investors that are in Micron, including myself. And you know, Mohnish Pabrai didn't really do much with this position. Li Lu just kind of held. And but we've seen other you know, value investors say like uh uh a David Tepper, for example, kind of reduce. I believe I want to say Seth Klarman did as well.
So, you know, just kind of seeing a different you know, trend from one value investor to another. But that was interesting to see because uh they did reduce their you know, guidance for this year. And chip chip makers and semiconductors in general just are not having a great time. Uh but they obviously must be still bullish going on to the future.
So, they still held or at least uh you know, Li Lu still held there. Second biggest is Bank of America, BAC. Uh third is Google, ticker symbol GOOG. That's what he added during this quarter. Uh he still holds Berkshire Hathaway. He holds Apple, AAPL. And then he holds the other Alphabet ticker symbol, which is GOOGL.
That was a new one for this quarter overall. So, you know, interesting because Li Lu made a lot of his money on smaller companies maybe not as well-known companies in the past. But as his portfolio gets bigger and bigger and bigger and you're maintaining or trying to manage a portfolio of billions of dollars, it gets more difficult to invest overall because there's a lot of stipulations on how much you know, stock you can hold without doing extra reporting.
So, unfortunately, it kind of forces them to buy bigger positions uh in in general. So, um we'll kind of see how Li Lu does going forward, but I still think he's a phenomenal investor. And it's interesting to see him add um Google um and then sell Meta Platforms overall. So, thank you guys so much for watching.
You know, these are just my opinions on this subject, and if there's another super investor that you want me to do a video on, drop it down below. I plan to do one on Phil Town. That Phil Town is one that I closely follow. Uh I did his investment courses uh a couple of years ago. I highly respect him.
I just looked today, and I did not see his filing out there. So, uh rest be assured, I will put a video out once that filing comes out. Um overall, and I did hear through the grapevine that he did buy Google himself. So, uh that will be kind of a um kind of a you know, I don't know, pull the curtain away type before I get to that video.
I also plan to do one on Dave Tepper as well. So, if there's any other ones, drop them down below. Thank you so much for watching. I'll catch you on the other side. Take care, and God bless.
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