저자: Justin · 외국인
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결론: 리루(Li Lu)의 히말라야캐피털이 2022년 4분기 13F 기준 구글(GOOGL)을 추가 매수했고, 발표자는 구글 밸류에이션이 저평가 상태라고 보고 장기 보유 관점을 제시한다. 포트폴리오 개요: 히말라야캐피털의 13F 보유 규모는 약 20억 달러 수준이며 집중 포트폴리오다. 주요 비중은 마이크론(약 30%), 뱅크오브아메리카(약 25%), 버크셔(약 14%) 순이다. 구글 매수 흐름: 직전 분기 GOOGL 주식을 168% 추가 매수했고, 3분기에는 거래가 없었다. 2020년 2분기에는 메타와 구글을 동시에 매수했으며, 2022년 2분기 이후 메타를 전량 매도하고 구글로 자금을 옮겼다. 구글 사업 구조: 매출의 약 80%가 광고(검색, 유튜브, 구글 네트워크)에서 나온다. 클라우드 매출은 약 73억 달러로 전체의 약 9%이며, 전년 대비 약 32% 성장했다. 클라우드 수익성: 클라우드 영업손실은 전년 같은 분기 약 8.9억 달러(매출 대비 약 -16%)에서 직전 분기 약 4.8억 달러(매출 대비 약 -6.5%)로 개선됐다. 발표자는 2024년경 흑자 전환 가능성을 언급했다. 밸류에이션(영업이익 기반 DCF): 2023년 매출 성장률 6%, 이후 약 9~12% 가정, 영업이익률 30% 가정 시 내재가치는 주당 약 139달러로 제시됐다. 현재 주가 약 89달러 기준 약 36% 안전마진이다. 영업이익률 33%로 상향하면 약 176달러(약 50% 안전마진)가 된다. 과거 실적: 10년 연평균 성장률은 주당매출 20%, 주당순이익 20%, 잉여현금흐름 17%, 장부가 14%이며, ROIC 평균은 약 16%다. 추가 이벤트: NFL 티켓 독점 중계권 확보로 유튜브TV 가입자 유입 가능성을 언급했다. 리스크·조건: 발표자는 밸류에이션 가정이 틀리면 내재가치도 틀리다고 명시했다. 클라우드 흑자 전환 시기는 불확실하다. 광고 의존도가 높다. 발표자 입장: 구글은 가격이 내재가치보다 낮다고 보며 매수 기회로 본다. 본인은 GOOGL을 보유하고 GOOG 추가 매수를 검토 중이다. 발표자는 구글 IR 사이트가 부실하다고 비판했다. 발표자 전망: 1~3개월 단기 방향 예측은 없고, 장기 가치투자 관점의 견해만 제시했다.
다듬은 글
hey everybody my name is Justin and today we're going to be taking a look at another Super investors portfolio and this is Lee Lou who manages Himalaya Capital funds now according to Wikipedia back in June in 2021 he managed about 18 and a half billion dollars so he is not a small hedge fund manager by any means now today we're going to be taking this looking at his portfolio as of the end of Q4 which is only going to show his 13f filings which are stocks on the American Stock Exchange he is an international investor he is actually from China originally in fact he's been compared to Warren Buffett saying that he's the Chinese Warren Buffett which is some great accolades if you're getting compared to uh Warren Buffett Buffett certainly so these 13 out filings because of their American socket change does not cover all the stocks that he owns but it's almost two billion dollars worth of of stock that he has according to his 13f filings over overall and he's been loading up on Google stock over the last couple quarters and in Q4 he added quite a few shares which we're going to see here in a second so we're going to take a look at what his portfolio looked like at the end of Q4 then we're going to talk more about Google maybe why he is actually buying the stock and essentially adding to it because he's been adding into it for the last couple of quarters overall so uh thank you so much for being here this is the first video washed of mine again my name is Justin I'm a value investor myself and I try to follow a lot of other value investors strategies that are out there one book I just started reading recently is by Howard marks call the most important thing I would highly recommend it if you have not read that book it really kind of goes around Ephesus around risk in general and it's really kind of um you know create a good foundation for me I would say as far as investing I've been investing for for years now but certainly a great book to kind of re-home my thought on investing in general so definitely recommend that one that's out there for you guys so uh let's go jump into the portfolio right now and take a look at what it looks like at the end of Q4 for lilu all right everybody I am on a website called dadaroma.com This is a free website I really like this one it really focuses on value investors you can actually go look at a different value investor portfolios so if I kind of scroll up here there's a lot of ads on this platform because it is free so just keep that in mind but if we go take a look at Super investor portfolio so click on super investors and you can literally go through almost a hundred on here uh different super investors and I like this website too because they keep adding new super investors uh every quarter it seems like and so my favorite ones to follow Howard marks lilu Warren Buffett I like watching uh David Tepper Josh tarasoff Robert vinall so there's a lot of great ones that are all on here so definitely go check this website out if you can especially if you're a value investor oriented in general so we go down here take a look at lilu Himalaya Capital Management you can actually see his positions right here so he is a guy that really has a concentrated portfolio overall keep in mind that these are only from the 13f filings these are only stocks that he owned from the American Stock Exchange he does own other stocks that are out there keep that in mind just this website only shows the 13f filings all right so if we go in here you can see as of this past quarter uh Micron is the largest one is position about 30 percent Bank of America 25 Berkshire 14.
but Google so he has he has two different alphabet stocks so alphabet is the parent company that owns Google and they have different class shares that you can buy so you can buy the g-o-o-g and the g-o-o-g-l stock so last quarter he added 168 percent of shares to his g-o-o-g-l uh ticker symbol so if we look at activity for him it's kind of interesting uh you know he's not super super active uh not as many as some of the other investors that I see but he does tend to have some activity each quarter so again he only bought Google stock last quarter nothing for Q3 according to 13 now filings Q2 this is where it kind of got interesting because he sold out of meta stock completely so if we go back to Q2 2020 which is down here you can actually see he bought meta platforms and he bought Google at the same time and it also sold Alibaba so if you go back to that time frame that's when the whole Market just absolutely collapsed at that time that's when we're going through the pandemic and the stock market just you know just tanked at that time so he added two Fang stocks meta and Google and then interestingly enough he started adding more to his meta platform stock uh the following quarter then reduced it and then he reduced it again then he added again which was right after they announced the transition going to uh the metaverse so that was kind of interesting but then Q2 2022 so about nine months ago he sold out of meth meta platforms completely and then he started really adding uh more Google stocks so he's really transitioned away from meta platforms and really pushing that money into to alphabet which is I think uh quite interesting you know overall um so you know so again small concentrated portfolio according to the 13l filings now uh there is another website I like to use too which is called ticker terminal um some of you guys may already use this already I like ticker terminal a lot because it does show other filings besides the 13f so if we go to tracking investing gurus they do have a free version on ticker terminal and they have a couple different paid versions this is one of their paid versions I am an affiliate of ticker terminal if you're kind of curious go check it out I will have a link down description below but I I do like doing a lot of analysis like in the financial statements on ticker terminal because I can go pretty far and they also have future estimates which I like as well too so if we look at Himalaya capital for example which is Lee Lou's fund so the only other one that shows in here is the postal Savings Bank of China now he does own more than this uh more more shares that is uh unfortunately it may not show up and ticker terminal if he does not own more than say five percent of a company it won't won't typically show up here but he does have uh other positions so if you if you know of other positions that he currently owns throw it down in the comment section so we can learn from each other on that but I just want to kind of show you this website as well too and you can see that he was adding uh 168 so it does mirror what Dad Aroma said as well so uh why would he buy be buy more uh alphabet stock why would he be buying more Google stock I personally own meta platforms and I own Google stock myself so it makes me curious why he might be buying Google and not and getting away from meta platforms uh completely now if we take a look at Google uh or alphabets condensed uh p l for last quarter we can see some interesting things here one thing I do I do want to point out if you go to alphabet's investor relations Center it looks like a three-year-old uh drafted this up this is probably the worst investor relations website I have ever ever seen come on alphabet you're a one trillion dollar company you got to step it up this is awful I I don't think alphabet does a great job on um certainly not as good as a lot of other companies that are out there as far as making things easy to find on their website and also putting together documents that can help investors learn more about the company I think alphabet can do way way better um than they're doing right now personally all right so if we go back to Q4 numbers real quick there's one thing that really stands out to me uh about Google overall and this is one of the reasons why I bought into them if we look at the Google Cloud right here if we look at the difference between you know Q4 2021 and Q4 2022 which are these numbers right here uh you can see the difference in Cloud revenue and keep in mind with alphabet with Google that their largest revenue stream that they have is from advertising so they're Google search their YouTube ads their Google Network last quarter alone almost 60 billion dollars so it is a massive uh portion of their their revenue in fact if we just quickly uh kind of do a percentage here so let's say uh 59 divided by you know 76.
so you're talking almost 80 percent of their total revenue uh comes from advertisements where if you look at the cloud for example uh 7 billion uh divided by 76 billion right so you're only talking about nine percent in total of of their revenue and what's interesting if you look at the year prior and do the same thing so you're talking you know the Google Cloud was five and a half billion they did about 75 in total you're talking seven percent so they're Google Cloud business has grown uh seven percent of their business to nine percent of their business if we look at year-over-year numbers you can actually see how much it's actually grown so 7.3 billion divided by 5541 so you're talking 32 so their Google Cloud business is growing significantly uh compared to the rest of their business and if you know a lot about the the cloud service if we look at Amazon specifically I mean AWS has some really great operating margins overall well over uh 30 percent and Google without that cloud uh service alone has around 30 percent operating margins and so uh as this as this business part of their business grows uh they're going to become more profitable or they should become more profitable in fact if we go and look deeper right now and we look down here if you look at the operating loss by the different segments of their business here look at Google Cloud right here you're talking uh they had you know a loss of 890 million dollars a quarter a year ago and then last quarter it was 480 million so they're they're even though the revenue is getting better which is great it's growing 30 percent that their their losses have decreased uh year over year in fact if we look at what the losses are we could say so a year ago it was negative eight nine zero and we're going to divide that by 5541 which is the revenue so they're operating loss was 16 a year ago in the same quarter were this quarter interestingly enough was negative 480 million and we're going to divide that by 7351 which is the total revenue for Google cloud and you're talking six and a half percent loss so that's that's significant going from 16 loss to six and a half percent loss uh so I don't know if they're gonna become profitable necessarily in 2023 uh certainly in the projection it looks like uh in 2024 maybe they're going to be heading that way but as that part of their business grows their operating margin should uh grow as well another thing to mention about Google is too some recent news that came out about them is that they actually got the NFL ticket which does not seem like a big deal DirecTV had that before and they paid billions of dollars to be able to get that but I do think that is going to appeal to new uh customers that are out there you know you can actually go to YouTube TV I think it's around fifty dollars a month on and you can get all kinds of different you know channels you can cut cable go to YouTube TV I could really see a big transition over the next year or two with new customers cutting the cable cord or even other streaming services and then going to YouTube so that that may be uh another underlying Revenue base for for YouTube for alphabet going for just in in general now if we go take a look at a valuation for Google let's do that real quick all right so you can value companies and with a lot of different methods that are out there in fact I I offer a few different templates on my patreon if you want to know how to value a company uh this one specifically is based on operating income this is one of my favorite evaluations that I personally like to use so essentially what I'm trying to do here is forecast sales for the business and then also forecast operating margins for the business and then from there I can get future operating income and discount it back to today to get that present value of of operating earnings or operating income and then figure out the intrinsic value from there so what I'm basically saying for Google if I'm going to project out I'm saying so they did 282 billion dollars worth of sales in 2022 and I'm saying they're going to grow six percent this year uh 12 and 12 9 7 so until 1127 I think they're gonna do around 400 140 billion dollars worth of Revenue on the top line of the p l then operating margins this is where I think it gets interesting with with Google and keep in mind this is the ticker symbol g-o-o-g-l so just just know that so operating margins uh you know this past year you know we're around 28 analysts they're actually a drop down 25 26 percent this year uh but I think they should be around 30 percent I actually think that might be low for them so we'll talk about here in a second but based on a 30 operating margin you know five years from now I think that the operating income will grow around 11 per year which gets us at an intrinsic value of 139 dollars today which is a 36 percent margin of safety based on a share price of 89 um so this this looks act for me I think this is fairly conservative we go take a look at some of their historical numbers here um I do need to update these a little bit uh the last trailing 12 months I think was through I want to say Q3 of last year um so I need to update Q4 numbers here but if we look at 10-year kegger so compounding annual growth rate for sales per share that's 20 percent you look at earnings per share 20 free cash flow 17 Book value 14 uh the roic over a 10-year period on average been 16 percent phenomenal business absolutely phenomenal you'll get the operating emergency grown uh pretty much year over year now they did dip a little bit last year I think it was around 28 by the end of the year uh but overall it's it's a great business a very uh Conservative Business if you look at the bank stocks this is one of the most conservative um or consistent consistent's probably the best work consistent businesses that I've seen out there so you know going back to my my valuation say nine percent growth on the top line when they've done 20 percent historically um it's only half so I think that is conservative uh now there are some projections out there that I'm seeing because of their Cloud business growing so fast and that should improve margins I've seen analysts saying that should be around 33 34 percent five years out so let's just say 33 percent So based on that that would give us a 176 dollar intrinsic value and that's almost a 50 margin of safety um you know I I don't want to be that optimistic I like to be a little bit more conservative here so I'm still going to keep it 30 but Ian still you know over a 30 percent margin of safety that at least tells me that uh this company is trading uh well below what the intrinsic value is based on these assumptions the assumptions are not correct well then the valuation is not correct either all right so hopefully you like this video today if you did go and hit that like button I love looking at Value investor portfolios that are out there so if there's one in pater that want me to take a look at is it how are marks Warren buffer maybe somebody else uh throw down a comment section let me know who else you want me to visit or revisit on this channel overall but I love to hear from you guys as far as lilo's portfolio what about Google do you think this is a good opportunity to be loading up on alphabet stock right now do you own Google Shares do you own the g-o-o-g-l or the g-o-o-g ticker symbol for me personally I own the g-o-o-g-l but I'm looking into possibly buying the other shares as well those are just different class of shares and I don't know about you guys eyes but I certainly don't have billions of dollars worth of funds that I managed so really to me I don't think it's a big deal buying either one but it has to do with voting rights so uh depending how much money you have uh maybe you turn around what shares you like to go with but for me it really doesn't matter either way and again if you want to know how to Value companies I do offer them on my patreon which I'll put a link down in the description below if you want to go check it out you also get access to my Discord Channel and then also uh post uh just to my patreon members and videos that are on there as well too so thank you so much for watching again I really really appreciate it I'll catch you guys on the other side take care and God bless
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