저자: 미상 · 외국인
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옥시덴탈 페트롤리엄(OXY)을 저평가로 보고, 2026년 주당 영업이익 약 6.75달러에 PER 13배를 적용해 87~97달러(현재가 대비 45~55%)를 제시. 리 루, 워런 버핏 등 슈퍼투자자 매수를 근거로 제시. 유가 74달러 가정, 부채 감축(2026년 약 100억 달러 목표) 전제. 가정이 틀리면 유가 하락 시 밸류에이션이 무너질 수 있다고 언급.
다듬은 글
so we just learned that lelu bought 1.4 million shares of oxidal petroleum in the last quarter we also learned that Mish PB bought a bunch of oxidal stock as well and of course this Falls the greatest investor of all time Warren Buffett who is loaded up on the stock and now it is a top five position in his portfolio so why are these top Super investors buying oxal Petroleum stock we're going to discuss that in this video here today in fact I think oxal petrol stock is undervalued by about 45 to 55% we can see that appreciation in its stock in the next 18 to 24 months so we're going to discuss that all here today in this video so first off what does oxal petroleum do well they are one of the largest oil and gas producers in the entire world they've been around for a while in fact Vicki Holm herself who runs the company who's the current CEO has been with the company for four decades she's been running the company strictly since 2015 she has done a great job in transitioning the company and basically getting rid of parts of the business that were low margin pieces of their business so they've really focused their business on a couple of main basins in the United States and the most critical one of all is the permium Basin which is the lower part of the United States so Texas for example is in the peran Basin in fact if you look at all oil and gas produced in the United States 30% comes from the permium Basin itself out of that 30% oxidal produces 10% of that now they are also in the Midland Basin as well in fact they just announced or finalized an acquisition of crown Rock in August earlier this month that will also give them more leverage and opportunity in the Midland Basin itself but in this video and this company is really geared towards the permium Basin and that is extremely important for oxal petroleum because they become the lowcost producer in their industry if you look at Chevron for example their gross margins are around 40% their operating margins are around 12 or 133% if you look at ocidental they have gross margins of 60% and their operating margins are above 20% so for a oil and gas producer being able to get a 60% gross margin is absolutely incredible really gives them an advantage over their competitors the reason for that this is a commodity type business so the price of oil for example a barrel oil which is around $74 here today really determines on the revenue which falls all the way down to the bottom line for all oil and gas producers if you can make it cheaper than everybody else you can make money when oil drops even below $40 a barrel and oxal petroleum can still make money in the premium Basin being under $40 a barrel where their competitors overall cannot make money unless it's closer to $50 a barrel so that is where it's really important and critical for oxil petroleum have their competitive advantage over their industry just in general I think one of the main reasons why Warren Buffett and these other investors have bought into oxal petroleum itself now there are several risk with oil and gas producers just in general that you need to be worried about or just be aware of in enal and one of those where we talked about this is a commodity type business so their revenue is strictly tied into how much a barrel of oil cost or how much it costs gas for example and the market really dictates on what that cost is going to be currently a barrel of oil right now is $74 that is a good price across the industry now when I looked into the eiia and they look strictly at Brent crude you know they forecast that Brent crude specifically is supposed to go up up in 2024 it's at in the high 7s right now by the end of 2024 they suggest it's be between $ 80 and $85 they believe that's going to grow into 2025 reaching $90 so that would be good across the board for this industry if that happens now if it goes the other direction and goes below say $60 a barrel that obviously is going to be a problem and you're going to see oxal and other companies of the industry maybe pull back on production because they just not going to make as much money as far as margins go another risk with a company is their debt now this is a company if you look at their debt Equity it's roughly about 65% now if you look at competitors say like Chevron for example it's below 20% so from a mat market cap perspective oxidal has three times as much debt as say Chevron do does which is a problem right now oxidal has been paying down their debt significantly if you look back a few years ago it was almost $40 billion back back in 2022 it was roughly $30 billion they've been able to pay that all the way down to about $20 billion here today in fact in August they're saying they're going to pay off roughly $1.3 billion and it's going to be roughly about $4 billion going into quarter four so I believe their debt is going to be reduced down to say roughly 15 to17 billion in total by the end of 2024 which is great they're going to continue to deleverage their balance sheet if you go back to 2022 the company came out and said that their goal was to pay down their debt by roughly $15 billion over the next two to three years so getting down to say 15 to 17 billion by the end of 2024 puts them within that range so they're on the trajectory that they wanted to be another piece of that too is they pay a lower dividend versus their competitors and the reason for that is because they're trying to pay down their debt so as their debt comes down I think as they get close to10 billion I believe that they're going to continue to increase their dividend and get more in line with what competitors are here today but I think it's smart by the company to continue paying down their debt in the meantime so what would be a valuation for oxal petroleum and here is you know what I think or how I value oxal petroleum first off if we look at the business here today at $74 uh crude oil uh you know they're going to produce roughly around $ 28 billion dollar in Revenue this year not not including the crown Rock acquisition now if we go into two years into the future in 2026 if we assume that crude oil is going to trade around $75 at that time just trying to be conservative a lot of projections I see are going to be higher than that but again this is going to be conservative as Pro possible if we also assume that gas is going to be roughly $2.15 which is in line to where it is today with a Crown Rock acquisition they should be able to produce roughly $30 billion in Revenue in 2026 now then if we assume that operating margins are going to be roughly 21% that year which is very conserved that's where they are at today they've been all the way up to even over 35% in the last two years but I think 21% is pretty conservative for this business based on that they should have roughly $6.3 billion of operating income for that year in 2026 now if we take that divide it by total shares outstanding which is 935 million that comes to roughly $6.75 of operating income per share for the business 2 years from now if the business continues to pay down debt like I believe they're going to do and they get closer to that total debt of around $10 billion by 2026 I believe the market should be paying a higher multiple than what they're doing now for oxidal but nonetheless we're going to still be very conservative in these assumptions and I'm going to say that the market is going to pay A3 multiple for this company so if we take that $66.75 of Opera income per share multiply it by 13 we get roughly $87 for the stock price in 2026 now instead we say hey operating margins are going to be closer to 23% that would push actually the stock price up to $97 so I'm suggesting that the stock is going to be between $87 and $97 by 2026 so around 18 months to to 24 months from now that's roughly a 45 to 55% stock appreciation from where it is right now but again these are all assumptions could be wrong if the barrel of oil drops below $75 obviously changes the assumptions that the company's not able to pay down as much debt as what I'm suggesting I think they're going to do that could change it as well but again just trying to be conservative across the board so overall I can see why Warren Buffett leelu m p and a lot of other super investors are buying this stock it does look cheap right now based on the assumptions that we talked about here today but I would love to hear from you guys I mean what do you think about oxel petroleum do you own that company uh if you have questions about you know how do you value companies in general that is one of the ke aspects of trying to evaluate companies and trying to figure out you know is this a company that is worth buying into or not if you have those questions you don't know how to do that I do offer free templates on my patreon as well I have three different valuation templates on there that I personally use myself if you're interested in something like that I'll put a link down below to that patreon you also get access to my Discord Channel as well with over a 100 value investors in there as well check that out love to see you guys guys over there thank you so much for watching always love these videos looking to lelu Warren Buffett Mo Bri and others so thanks again for watching take care and God bless
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