저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee은 토큰화된 실물자산과 AI 에이전트 확산으로 이더리움의 네트워크 가치가 비트코인을 추월할 것이라고 주장한다. 비트코인은 장기적으로 100만 달러까지 갈 수 있다고 보며 가치저장 수단으로서의 강점을 강조한다. 스테이블코인이 미국채 보유를 확대해 국채시장을 뒷받침할 것으로 전망한다. 영상 후반부는 9월 비트코인 계절성과 RSI 강세 다이버전스를 근거로 12만 4500달러 반등 가능성을 언급하며, 엘살바도르 비트코인 준비금 관련 의문도 제기한다.
다듬은 글
This is not going to be a popular statement because there's a lot of tribalism in crypto. Uh but before this year, I would have considered Ethereum like a really good reliable chain, but without any products being built on it, it shouldn't really do well. But because of what's happening with AI and with Wall Street and you know project crypto, I think Ethereum's essentially the value of its protocol layer like you know Union Square Ventures calls it the fat protocol is now going to be more valuable because we're tokenizing everything on Ethereum rather than just gold.
Like so if gold is a $21 trillion market, tokenizing the real world is orders of magnitude larger than gold, which means Ethereum probably will flip in network value versus Bitcoin. Um flip as in outgrow. Yeah, it'll have a higher network value. So Tom Lee explores how Ethereum could overtake Bitcoin, covering future trends.
Let's dive in and watch him explain everything. Well, Wall Street now is going to be building its entire infrastructure onto the blockchain, and the blockchain they're choosing is Ethereum. So, this is the 1971 moment where Wall Street is essentially capitalizing on tokenizing the entire world onto a blockchain.
That's a huge opportunity. The second story arc benefiting Ethereum though is AI. uh because now we're moving towards an agentic AI world but with real products like AI is principally been trained on like internet and I don't know social media but it hasn't been in the real world uh cuz it hasn't ingested us as we've moved and physically moved or even have independent products that's a vast amount of new information for AI models to ingest and store but then now you have to be sure that all the instructions being sent back to the robot are proof of the originator.
You know, in other words, you need a token. I mean, LM use tokens anyways, but now you need like a token that interacts across chains. And that's where AI is going to build on Ethereum because you essentially need what they call proof of human. We need to prove that this lawnmower got a real instruction from another chain or another vendor.
And so that is all being built on Ethereum. And uh yes, I I understand it. Um, I think that the distinction to make is that I'm not bearish on Bitcoin because I think Bitcoin uh will get to a million. But what about all the other cryptocurrencies? Well, uh, other cryptocurrencies don't have uh the network value because uh otherwise they're just software chains.
Meaning, so you don't really believe in Ethereum as a currency. You believe in it for other reasons. That's right. Um yeah, I think that the narrative of storing value is really Bitcoin's um use case. Um Ethereum's use case is that it's actually going to be used uh used and burned. So um Ethereum gets consumed through gas fees and then staking is how you produce an Ethereum.
That inflation rate has been below Bitcoin actually. So, uh, if you look at it as monetary supply, Bitcoin's monetary supply is actually still growing faster than Ethereum. September has long carried the reputation of being a difficult month for Bitcoin, often referred to as the September effect. Historically, since 2013, Bitcoin has closed negative in eight of the past 12 September, averaging losses of around -3.8%.
Traders often use this period to lock in summer gains or adjust portfolios ahead of the final quarter, which adds seasonal pressure. This trend mirrors the S&P 500, which has also shown a weak average return in September for nearly a century. However, this year's setup may look different. Bitcoin has just closed August in the red for the first time since April, dropping toward a support zone around $105,000 to $110,000.
Interestingly, every positive September in Bitcoin's history has followed a poor August, suggesting that last month's decline might have already flushed out sellers. Analysts point to 2017 as a comparable cycle when Bitcoin also stumbled late in August before rebounding and ultimately racing to $20,000.
Technical patterns now hint at strength building beneath the surface. A hidden bullish divergence on the RSI suggest buyers are quietly regaining momentum. If that plays out, Bitcoin could rebound toward $124,500 within weeks. Coupled with a weakening dollar and expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, the conditions are forming for Bitcoin to turn a historically weak month into the launch pad for another major rally.
Yeah. Uh if I could give a little like um historical perspective when Tether created the first dollar stable coin uh and they built it on Ethereum, their idea was someone doesn't always want to be long Bitcoin or another crypto. They want to be long something stable and crypto holders weren't really allowed banking access.
Um so they didn't have an offramp. So, Tether built uh a dollarbacked coin called a stablecoin musd. In 2017, Google and and the UT Austin wrote these papers claiming Tether was just a fraud and the only reason crypto went up was because of Tether creations. Okay? So, in other words, it was immediately tried to be viewed as something fake.
But then Tether has since grown and of course stable coins have really grown in popularity. Merchants outside the US love stable coins because they don't suffer the chargebacks. You know, credit card companies make or merchants eat fraudulent transactions. So merchants, they get paid. It's just as good as getting a dollar.
Um, in Turkey, any place like India, Tether trades at a premium to the dollar because people prefer to get that over cash because it's hard to get robbed. You know, you can use a stable coin to buy real estate in Dubai now using Tether. Um, like 2000 million transactions. So, it's actually being used in the real world.
Actually, stable coin usage, uh, 80% is outside the US. But the reason the US administration starts to like it is number one um crypto is a is essentially 100% quoted in dollars. GDP in GDP terms the dollar is 27% of global economy. It's 55% of central bank reserves is the dollar. It's 80% of traditional financial market pair quotes.
So the synthetic dollar which happened in 1971 made the dollar 80% dominant. In the crypto world the dollar is 100% dominant. So the US wants us to financialize into crypto because everybody prefers to get a dollar. Um collectively the stable coin industry is about 280 billion of treasur of outstanding dollars.
They are now the 12th largest holder of treasuries in the world. Japan owns 1.2 two trillion of treasuries. Treasur Treasury Secretary Bessant thinks this market will get to four trillion. That would make stable coins the largest holder of treasuries in the world. So, it'll be backstopping the entire Treasury market.
El Salvador has taken a bold step with its Bitcoin strategy, moving its entire $682 million reserve into 14 different wallets. Until now, all 6,284 BTC were held in a single address, a setup that left the country vulnerable if that one point of storage was ever compromised. The National Bitcoin Office explained that the change was made to strengthen security and prepare for potential threats, particularly those tied to future developments in quantum computing.
By ensuring no wallet carries more than 500 BTC, the risk is spread out, making the reserve less fragile. President Na Bouklli's government has long promoted Bitcoin as central to the nation's economic identity. Officials continue to claim that one Bitcoin is bought daily, gradually building the reserve.
They argue that unused Bitcoin addresses with hashed public keys provide stronger protection against possible cryptographic attacks, even if quantum computing threads are still decades away. Yet, this narrative clashes with reports given to the International Monetary Fund. El Salvador's central bank governor and finance minister told the IMF no public Bitcoin purchases have occurred since February, raising doubts about official claims.
While the reserve split looks like a strong defensive move, the bigger question remains whether El Salvador's Bitcoin accumulation is as consistent as its leader suggests. If you have been watching so far, thank you so much for watching and do not forget to subscribe to BitcoinZilla for daily news all for free. That's all for today's video. Until next time.
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