저자: RamdevAgarwal · 외국인
요약 보기
모틸랄오스왈 글로벌 투자자 컨퍼런스 당일 시장 강세를 언급하며 기업 실적 바닥론과 실적 회복 기대를 강조. 2분기 GDP 7.8%, 자동차 판매 호조를 근거로 소비 회복과 정부 지출 증가를 제시. GST 인하(28→18%, 12→5%)를 경기 부양 요인으로 보며 10월~12월 분기 호재 기대. FII 매도는 DI 매수 확대로 상쇄되며 밸류에이션 지지 전망. 중장기적으로 인터넷·기술 활용 기업의 성장 강조, AI는 사용 기업에 비용절감 효과. 주식시장은 장기 상승장 관점 유지, 단기 조정이 있어도 괜찮다는 입장.
다듬은 글
Let us now talk about the Motilal Oswal Animal Global Investor Conference which has started today. Ah, we are joined by Ramdev Agarwal, Chairman, Motilal Oswal Fashion Services to discuss this conference. Ramdev ji good afternoon. Tell me, was your conference lucky for the market today? Your conference started and there was such a big rally in the market.
Nifty is up by 200 points. So, did your investors say something like this in the conference that led to such a huge rise in the market? There are still 40-45 minutes left, Anuj, tomorrow is still left. 40-45 minutes left today. Tomorrow is still left. But Ramdev ji, on a serious note, please tell us a little about the mood and atmosphere.
Yes of course. About whom? Hi. How is your mood at the conference ? And now, after these current situations, how do you feel ? Yes, look, the headlines you have here in the newspapers are very different. And the atmosphere here, the companies that are presenting, I have seen the presentation of Charap Company.
They're not even mentioning anything about this Trump thing. So I think it is a bit overhyped and it is not that the problem is permanent forever. So, I think companies are taking it a little lightly and they are going about their plans as if these things are negotiable in the terms of this thing. But we have not met exactly the companies which are getting direct hits.
Which means if there is export of Rs 1000 crore and there is a huge impact there, then we have not met such companies. But generally the business environment optimism looks quite good. Ramdev ji, these GS, these economic figures that have come out, the economic figures of Q1 are 7.8%, today the auto sales numbers have come out and whenever you and I talk, you always say that we will watch out the auto sales numbers very closely.
Is this somewhere giving strength to your thesis that now the earnings growth is just going to pick up from here. The pen that was there in the more and less system is now going to end. Ah Anuj, time will tell but so many intelligent economists, I mean they are wrong in the quarter by so much you know there was not even an exception, what happens quickly is that in 15-20 economists, one or two say that brother, it will be 8%, if it comes to 7, this time the consensus was of 6.5 and on top of that it comes to 7.8, so I think there is something happening which ah these economists they are not able to capture and there is a lot of wealth effect, this is the study of the market and the money that has come into the hands of the people, the wealth effect of the change in the market cap, it is very difficult to measure it, but the confidence of the consumers, those who have the power of discretionary expenditure, I think, is playing out somewhere and the government expenditure which was very low last year, I mean because of the elections, it was very slow.
I think this time it has increased by about 25-30%. That's a huge delta in terms of growth enhancers, and economists may not be familiar with those numbers very well. So, but it is a message and if you see the quarterly results also, here the copper profit from the aggregate market, the aggregate copper profit growth expected was about 67% but it came to 9-10%, there is a gap of 2-3% but definitely on the positive side, so there has been no effect as of now.
Going forward, I think the worst time for earnings is over and I think acceleration will start from here. Rajiv Memani ji is coming to your house this evening. Now, what is your view on this exercise going on regarding GST cut, Ramdev ji, how big a reform can this be for the market? Anuj, you understand what your brother is going to do?
28 to 18 and 12 to five, so it's simple to say but it's not going to be that simple. Now we have to understand what hips and buds will be put in it. Like your cement is 28 and 18, I think it will be straight fast through your automotive, particularly the entry level, be it Maruti, Hero Motocop or TVS, all of them are talking about basically actually doing reforms, so doing it with love means like in wholesale that brother, okay, 80900 was invested, 1 lakh crore was invested, but the bounce that will come, this is your investment in the future, once you count lakh crore, but the bounce that will come from it, it will be a big bounce.
There will be a bounce in consumption in the future. I think complete recovery will happen within 12 months. And that too will come to you perpetually every year. This shocks you for a year. So I think the government is also in the mode to take the risk to accelerate the economy. Particularly when the back is on the wall.
So now see what comes, it depends on how simple it is and how loud it is. Ok. Okay Sir, this upcoming festival season of October, November, December, how important do you think this quarter is in terms of major turnaround and for which sector is it most impressive, see Anuj, continuous changes are coming here, like first positive and negative, see negative, so the one that is going on with Trump sir about 50 taka is one thing, but see positively, your credit flow is increasing, you are getting your fiscal benefits.
Your rates are being cut. Your liquid is being released. That is one part of it from the monetary side. On the fiscal side, your tax has reduced. And then after that you are going to do GST reform. Well, in GST it is like this, the day it happens, it gets implemented on the same day. For example, suppose on 12th or 30th September or any particular date, on which day you announce that it is 28th and 18th, then that excise duty gets applied on the same night itself.
So you are talking about October, November, December, then I think the whole quarter will be beneficial of multiple forces. So I think it will be very exciting. Okay Ramdev Agarwal ji, very good afternoon Shreya, I am talking to you, Sir, you sound optimistic about the market, but why is the selling from FI side not stopping, they are not able to see that the Indian market will boom in the long term, see their compulsions are different.
Their parts are different. Their motivations are very different. They have other markets where they can go, they might be feeling that those markets which have tariff, if tariff is one particular consideration apart from everything else in the short term, if tariff is the consideration in India is clearly headwinded in other countries are tailwinded, so they will definitely take the money from India and India is one beautiful market where you can sell, today you have to sell 1 billion, 2 billion, your money gets deposited in T+1, how many markets are there, small markets where you can sell 1 billion, 2 billion and create liquidity.
Will not done. So India is a funding market for other markets. So the motivations of FIs are different from domestic ones. Domestic people cannot go out, right? Even if it is expensive they can't go out. So and the domestic flow is so big. You see, in the last month, the buying interest of DI was almost Rs 1 lakh crore.
It's a history. You are not seeing this. There is empty DI bye of Rs 95000 crore. In the secondary market. I don't know how much more there will be in the primary. So I think this F is increasing month on month. I won't be surprised that this means that after two to four months, minimum Rs 1 lakh crore will come every month.
So this buying trend definitely brings resilience in the valuation. Now the question is that this price will increase only when the earnings come. So earnings are also starting to come in and buying is continuous. So I think this is a very interesting situation where FI has a negative view and DI has an absolute positive view and earnings are looking up, it has become a paradox situation, Agarwal ji sir, one question is that companies like Paytm and ZPO are coming to your conference.
We saw a significant rally in new age stocks. What is your view on this entire space ? What is your take sir? Look, I have a long term view. Who will win in that? Whoever is coming will tell. Eight out of 10 companies in America are technology companies. In India also, in the next 10-12 years, five to seven companies which will be very big companies will all be internet companies.
So, big technology based companies with market cap of Rs 5 lakh, 10 lakh, 15 lakh crore will come. They wo n't be technology like your NBEDIA type but they will be technology users. So, in their business model, those companies which will use AI intensely or use the internet, I think those companies which are internet based commerce companies, all these companies will come and all these companies like Paytm or Zomato or this is your SWGI, Policy Bazaar, all these companies, now out of these 10 companies, which five companies will become very big and which ones will not be that big, will not be that successful, it is very difficult to say, that is your choice and for that reason investors should know that this is a huge force.
In this, wherever you are investing in digital funds, the fund managers who are investing in these types of companies, should invest a little more money in that fund only. Absolutely. Okay Ram ji, what is your view on this AI? AI as an opportunity or AI as a threat because there is going to be a dedicated discussion on AI in your conference.
That is tomorrow. What would be your view on this? Just now Sharma ji from Paytm was here. So he was talking about very nice things about AI. Meaning theirs is an AI driven company. It is an AI first company. This is what Paytm is called. So he was telling all the places where he was getting advantage.
So clearly AI is a force to be reckoned with. I mean globally people would not be so stupid that they would spend so much without any impact. So there is impact. Now AI users who are clearly in the corporates, if you are using it successfully then your cost structure will definitely go down. So, for the user companies, I mean I would say ah leave aside the ah so called services companies for them it might be a little bit of a challenge but for everybody else, they are the user user companies.
So they will definitely benefit. So I think on the hole for the industry as a whole I think it's a it's a cost buster and profit enhancer. Okay sir, I had asked my previous question also. This is Virendra speaking. Ramdev Sir. I will ask you one more question. The industry to which you and I belong.
The industry creates wealth for people. We had a lot of instruments. Weekly expiries should be abolished or further restricted. Go straight from weekly to monthly. How do you see the coming year for exchanges or houses ? How challenging will it be and what damage has been done so far Sir? I will tell you something about it.
Look, SFS, the business is concerned clearly, the revenue explosion of broking happened last year till September when daily expiry came in, everyday one contract or expiring on weekly, so the revenue increased a lot due to that. So clearly, if you reduce the expiry from there, then its revenue concentration definitely reduces.
So you can see its effect. The brokerage side of revenue and profit has definitely reduced here and the impact of the digital side, which depends on the number of orders, is a little more pronounced. So, whatever setback has happened till the March quarter, that has become the base. So I think this year will look a little bad in year on year comparison for two-three quarters.
But I think if nothing much happens in this year then 26-27 will have a 30-40% growth starting again. Ramdev Sir, in the GDP data that came, one shocking number was regarding manufacturing. Now I think case is in your conference , there is Aber. These are some of the companies which have been flag bearers of PLI and manufacturing.
In this space you still feel like Joe has become a 100 bagger. Even after this, what opportunities are there here? Look, there are many opportunities Anuj. I mean company wise speaking is a different thing. But the story has also started in manufacturing. We have C looking a little bigger in the scale here.
But if you look at the global scale, it means there is nothing, we have nothing. So, growth opportunity is where the company is competent, actually the big companies which are successful, they have a bigger opportunity as compared to the new companies, small companies which do not have dominance. So this is what is happening in every business that big companies which have scale, people and talent have more opportunities compared to the companies which are starting up.
Ramdev Sir, one thing you always say is that whenever I have talked to you for the last 20 years, you have always said one thing that we are in a long term bull market. We never have to ask what is the top of the market ? All we have to ask is how much the market can fall. Just how much is the bottom?
If we know that then we are safe after that. Now, given the pain the market has endured in the last one year, should we assume that we are close to the worst ? Anuj, I don't understand all this. I am good even in bad. There is bad even in good. Meaning it made no difference to me. Even if the market falls by 10-20 from here.
I mean, I made so much money, friend. I have made a lot of money in the last 5 years. Unpressed money was made. So if there is some correction then it will be good, right? So I am not saying that there will be a correction, but if the market remains at 24-25000 for say four to six months, then also it is okay, meaning someday you are not going to get the reward without earning, so if my earnings will not increase, if suppose it takes 6 months for the earnings to increase, then I will have to wait for 6 months, on multiple side I do not have space, on aggregate I am saying, rest of the company specific, the program will continue, right, okay Ramdev ji, thank you very much for joining us today and again all the best to you for this conference, for the rest of today's part and for tomorrow. Thank you so much. Thank you. Thank you.
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