저자: VijayKedia/인터뷰어AnujSinghal · 외국인
요약 보기
최근 1년 주식시장 수익률 저조 대비 금(60%)·은 수익률이 높아 투자 질문이 많지만, 금·은은 생산성·활동성이 없어 비중은 10% 이내로 소액만 권장. 은은 1983년 $50 고점 후 $6까지 하락했다가 현재 약 $52로, 40년간 역사적 고점을 넘지 못했다고 설명. 향후 6~9개월 횡보(조정) 국면이 이어질 것으로 전망. 시장 전반의 큰 폭락은 예상하지 않으나 고평가 주식 대신 저평가 은행주 등에서 완만한 성장(연 12~14%)을 기대. 수익이 크지 않더라도 1년 정도는 무난히 지나갈 것이라는 견해.
다듬은 글
At present, wherever I go, I am asked the same question that the market gave zero return in the last 1 year and gold gave me 60% return. Silver gave even higher returns and is also an asset to me. There is also a physical asset. So why shouldn't I invest in gold or silver at this time? If the momentum is there then why not invest there?
What would be your view on this? So this is nothing new. So gold and silver have been around for 5000 years. This is not a new question today as to why I should invest in it. Ok? Understand this, since the stock market has been in existence for the last 30-40 years, if you compare it with gold in rupee terms, then of course gold may have given better returns.
But there is neither productivity nor activity within him. Now I think that I also have investment in gold and silver but consider it to be minor. The maximum amount of both combined will be 10%. Once I invest in gold and silver, what is left for me to do in my past life? If you invest in stocks, you are living an active life.
Your thinking is going on. Your mind is working. Your mind is wandering. Everything is going on. I speak according to my own opinion. Yes. So once you have invested, if you are not active in life then what will you do with the idle money? What is your generation going to do? For empty money? If that thinking does not develop in them.
If that mentality of creativity and productivity is not there in your mind then what will you do with the money? The money will be finished like this. So by saying this, what is the comparison, right now FOMO is going on, right now gold has increased so much in the market, so everyone wants to invest in it.
So this euphoria will also be cool. As the market cooled down, as other things cooled down. Commodities cooled down and freight rates increased. This is the cycle of life. For silver, I would like to tell you that silver was sold for $50 in 198345. Let's talk in dollar terms. It was the time of the Hunt Brothers.
There was a lot of manipulation. Silver was sold at $50 and from there it came down to $6 and the silver which was at $6 has come back to $52 today. So, silver has not yet broken even the history of 40 years, if we look at it now, it is possible that it may be inside it and there may be some more inside it, but I do not think that everything will happen in a single day.
All these will keep falling, keep rising and keep consolidating. We are absolutely right, you said that the consolidation phase in the market will continue for a longer period and the consolidation phase will continue for another six to nine months. In such a situation, the importance of Vijay ji stock selection increases because if you see, it is not the case that everything has remained flat in this market.
There have been very good returns too. Your portfolio is quite well known. But any recent additions that you have made to your portfolio where you feel there is a lot of good potential. No, I do n't think there is any huge potential in the market. Because now I have got into the habit of what Anuj Bhai says, whatever a man says, whatever a man hears, those echoes follow him throughout his life.
So now we have got used to saying and hearing that my 40 has increased, 50 has increased, 100 has increased, 200, oh is it all halwa brother, it does not happen like this all the time, so to ask me the truth, in the next one year, six- eight months, there is no such big expectation that there will be any destruction in the market because the shares are very expensive and everyone has to work in the expensive shares only, there are such bank shares which are available at such cheap rates that no one has to work in them because of course the growth in them is also slow, but you will get a growth rate of 12, 13, 14 taka in such banks.
None of them are working because there is no news about them every day. I got this much order, I got this much, this much is opening, that much is opening. So, I feel that those 6-8 months, 9 months, the whole year should pass comfortably. Whether you get a profit of 101 taka or even 20 taka, both things can happen.
So I am mentally prepared for that, yes brother, if this year goes like this then it will go. This is also a chapter of life.
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