저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
Motilal Oswal Financial Services(MOFSL) 1분기 실적에 대한 회장 Raamdeo Agrawal 인터뷰다. 한 줄 결론: 1분기 실적은 영업 기반 14% 성장과 평가손익 반전이 겹친 양호한 수치이나, 시장 전반은 이란·유가 리스크와 박스권 흐름에 묶여 있다는 것이 핵심 시각이다. [회사 실적] 적자에서 흑자로 전환했고 매출은 28% 증가했다. 영업 수익은 600억 원대로 전년 대비 14% 늘었다. 지난 분기에 약 1000억 원 마이너스였던 시가평가(mark to market) 손익이 플러스로 돌아서 분기 순이익이 약 1500억 원으로 크게 나왔다. 다만 이는 평가손익 효과가 커서 일회성 성격이 있다고 설명했다. 트레저리(자기자본 운용) 이익을 제외한 기준으로도 전년 대비 약 14% 성장했다고 강조했다. 최근 4분기 합산(TTM) 이익은 약 2000억 원 수준이다. [사업부문] 자산운용(AMC, 펀드·사모/사모신용)과 자산관리(WM)는 AUM 증가로 잘 성장 중이다. 브로킹은 규제 영향으로 부진, IB(IPO·QIP 등 딜)는 분기별 편차가 커서 1분기는 지난해 대비 둔화했다. 주택금융은 잘 되고 있다. 2분기는 IB 딜이 다시 살아나는 흐름이라고 봤다. [시장 전망] 이란 리스크는 핵이 아니라 유가 문제로 성격이 바뀌었고, 호르무즈 해협 봉쇄 가능성 등으로 유가가 120~150달러까지 갈 수 있다는 우려가 제기됐다. 회장은 이 충격의 크기를 자신 있게 말할 수 없다고 했으나 지난번보다 전략비축유 완충력이 작아 피해가 더 깊어질 수 있다고 봤다. 인도 시장은 AI 테마 고점(220→120 수준 하락 언급)과 금 조정으로 주도 재료가 줄었고, 유가만 남은 상황이라고 정리했다. 니프티는 2024년 9월 이후 2만 2000~2만 6000 박스권에서 움직였고 현재 약 2만 4000로 박스 중간에 있다. 니프티가 움직이지 않으면 중소형주 수익도 제한된다는 입장이다. [은행주] HDFC은행은 52주 저점 근처이며, 신용성장(12~14%)에 비해 이익 성장(약 5%)이 낮아 리더 은행의 사업모델 회복이 확인되기 전까지 은행 섹터 전체가 밸류에이션 압박을 받을 것이라고 봤다. [중장기 예측] 2년 내 니프티 3만~3만 2000 도달을 예상했다. 시점은 확신하지 못한다고 했다. 연 이익 성장률은 향후 2~3년간 15~20% 수준을 전망했다. 기업 이익 성장은 매출 약 20%, 순이익 18~20% 수준으로 봤다. 경제 성장(신용 확대, GST·자동차·소비 지표 호조)은 긍정적이라고 평가했다. [종합] 회사 실적과 중장기 성장에는 긍정적이나, 단기 시장은 유가 리스크와 박스권에 갇혀 있다는 시각이다. 특정 개별 종목 매수·매도 추천은 없었다.
다듬은 글
Let's now talk about the results of Motilal Oswal Financial Services. The company has presented good results in Q1. If you look at the quarter on quarter comparison of the previous quarters, the company has turned profitable from losses. Ah revenue has also jumped by 28%. And there are many factors to discuss.
Although there is a lot of pressure on the stock today, Ramdev Agarwal, Chairman of Motilal Financial Services, has joined us to talk. Ramdev ji good morning. When I was talking to you after the last quarter's numbers, you said that because that market was quite bad in the last quarter and why you saw a reversal of a lot of mark to market in April.
So is the market feeling that today's numbers are largely a reversal of this? Have your operating numbers been a bit weak this quarter? No, the operating numbers are great. Above 600 crore means 14 taka means year on year is 14% up we you know I mean operating itself is up. However, the mark to market of Rs 900-950, which was negative by Rs 1000 crore in the last quarter, has become positive.
So for that reason, Number for the Quarter It Looks Very Large. 1500 ₹150 crore 1500 22 crore something like that. So that's very big. But see in a way that also shows what are the What is the potential of a company? In a quarter you can make Rs 1500 profit. It is not going but be fee fee fee fee fee fee fee fee four quarters into 1500 * 4 so the question does not arise.
You can see last TTM so TTM makes it about 2000 crore and something like that. So but that is in all subdued market. Where Treasury doesn't I mean if the market is flat and 5% plus minus Treasury can only do that much. Absolutely. But long term potential 14% 15% my long term IR right now 12 to 13 year IR of this portfolio treasury is about 60 and half% if treasury gains are removed then like to like then your numbers means 14% higher right?
14% year on year it is higher. Ok. And you feel that those trends can make extra plates for the full year. You or him I think it should be like this. Because it is now two years market is rearing to go. I mean you can see the earnings momentum is also building up. I mean we have this problem of Iran.
Now I think before it moves out clearly now we are into the final kind of settlement there. I mean whatever it goes to 125 150 wherever it goes. It's all about the oil. So how does it get settled? Because momentum is too much. It ca n't go on like this for a very long time? No, but this Ramdev Sir, because you raised this question.
I was thinking of asking you this. That March risk will not come back to the market. Many people have this question. I do n't know Anuj ji. Absolutely no idea because what is it this time? One is that it's not about nuclear. Now it's only about oil in the sense that Gulf of Homs and Sea Iran has Iran has realized that the only bargaining power they have is blocking the oil exports of the countries.
So they are also expanding on the Red Sea side and here. So now it's a global economy ah in threat. So how they are very locally very well interested very large country so the risk looks to be pr noting so and the buffer of the inventory which was there last time when the first time it got stock all the strategic reserves have full billions of balance of oil even now there is some strategic reserve left but on a much smaller reserve you are going up ah and ah so I think ah ah what could be the short term impact of this is not with in my capability it goes to 120 and even higher.
So I have more prolong it is I think the damage will be deeper. No, but Ram ji, one thing is clear that even in this earnings season, we saw that the biggest sector of the market, private banks, are not ready to move. HDFC Bank is back at 52 week low. ICICI Bank's numbers were good, yet the stock did not move and there were a couple of accidents like Bandhan Bank, so what is the problem with this sector?
Bond yields appear to be rising going forward. Credit costs appear to be rising. This is all the impact. What is macro negative ? I think simply what I see from outside is the at least banking leader is HDFC Bank. Good. Ah and it it it it kind of a it resulted in one of the most brilliant investment performances in the last 25 years.
Starting in 95 till 200 from I would from 2024 and 23 ah it was one of the most brilliant stocks and people ended up buying a lot. I mean HDFC Bank, HDFC LED, HDFC AMC, everything was bought by people. So the share of HDFC group itself used to be 20-25% of the entire AMC. So that was the kind of over ownership we had at one point in time.
And now as under the new what you call dispensation I would say one era is over and the new dispensation has come there I think there are still pence of leadership successful leadership transition and that you can see it in you know when the this quarter result when your credit growth is 12 13 14% but your profit growth is only 5% so clearly the business model is still not found it's a what you call strength ah so and once the leader bank ah prices come down to a 50 low.
It is very unlikely that all the other contributors, despite their performance, will be very good. That can have significant you know can have different outlook. So my sense is the banking segment despite they are doing very well. Ah ah they wood they wood remain under a cloud in terms of valuation ah if so long as the leader doesn't get sorted.
Hmm. Ok. Another thing that is hurting the market a bit right now is that last time when you and I were talking, a good rally had started in the big group. Mid cap, small cap, a good rally had started here. The last week that has passed has caused a slight dent back here. People's portfolios have taken a hit back.
The market is getting worse every day. So, whatever sense was made somewhere, it's okay. Nifty will keep moving here and there due to the war. But at least there was money being made in mid-cap and small-cap. There's been a bit of a hit there. I don't think one can make serious amounts of money if the Nifty doesn't move very unlikely.
So Nifty will have to move. Meaning that's the only way. I mean C Nifty represents some of 70-80% of the market cap. So if that doesn't make a move. So it is very tough. I mean there can be one lucky guy here and there. Who has one stock which has gone up 60%. Some defense and power and some stock which he has.
So that is a very different thing. But across the portfolio of people it is very tough to make serious amount of money if the broader market does not move and the broader market since September 24 has remained range bound where I mean from March to March 26300 it is moving at 24000 plus minus 2000 meaning 22000 on the bottom 26000 on the top so right now we are 24000 so we are at the middle of ah what you call this transaction face so and but then the good thing positive aspect of the market is that credit growth has picked up economy is booming your all the high frequency data whether it is GST collection whether it is auto auto sales whether even consumer sales number of tickets sold everything is doing very well and now it is finally it is going to show up in the ah aggregate earnings.
My sense is that turnover is growing at about 20% for the quarter aggregate I am saying and profit is growing at about 18 to 20%. So I think I mean nothing better can happen just that ah environment of FI selling than that comes to the market problems you know whatever challenges are there in the market so but then I think economy is doing well and I think it's just a matter of time we have to pass one or two more months see longer you take the blast will be bigger hmm market will go where it has to go but but how what it will do we know but when it will do that we don't know at least I am very clear that weather the market will be in 2013-31 or may be even in next two years also but will it happen now and will it happen after six months and one year we don't know what happened in 2 years where will your market be right now I think yes so I think it should be more like 30 32 thousand Nifty in two years yes 2 years It will happen for sure and I am telling you this in 2031-32, that is why I don't want to get into this one year to year five year cycle of doubling six year doubling, you will definitely get 12%, this is very sure that you will get 12%.
I would think more like 14 15% you will get. But a lot of things will change. Six months ago we did not know that Iran 's problem was so big. I tell you, risk is something about which no one knows. Six months ago no one said that Iran is a big risk. Yes. Someone was talking about Taiwan, someone was talking about this , someone was talking about that, there was talk about Ukraine, there was talk about Hamas.
Nobody Was Knowing Iran. And Now Everything Else Is Nobody Knows That Ukraine War Is On. Everything Is Now About Iran. According to you, oil is the biggest risk for the market. Right now the biggest risk is oil. Ours is complicated, isn't it? The story of India is very complicated. I think there are four or five variables.
One is oil and second is gold. Third is Third is AI. Fourth is monsoon. So all this good stuff came together. All the problems that came together. Even after that he was suppressed. Its yes. For the same reason, the last monsoon also brought about inflationary pressure. So now the monsoon has subsided a bit.
Hmm. Your AI story is also the top is taken away. Meaning the space of 220 became 120. So, that also means I think the top is out. Google also got a bit washed out yesterday. So, I think the steam has gone out from there. Now save it, sorry one gold is left, even the gold has been washed a little. Nobody Talks About Gold Now.
Now the only thing left is oil. And we it's a drama is on right now. Absolutely. The drama is on in Oil. Let's get back to your numbers. [Sound of clearing throat] Wealth AUM and mutual fund AUM. We saw decent growth in both. Yes, this was good growth. So will these two segments deliver going forward ?
That's why I am asking you because now this space is becoming bigger. Many listed companies have come here. I can't believe I mean in 2015 my total profit was ₹100 crore ₹130 crore. Today my quarterly profit two it is buffered by munk to market. But still it is my profit. That is 1500 crores. So that shows a potential what it can be.
Hmm. Profit 2020 to 18 was all time high profit covid. There was about 600 crores. Okay, from there my quarterly profit has gone to Rs 1500 crore. So obviously, the capital market has scaled up big time. Particularly after 2,000, the capital market has scaled up and I think the best is ahead. You know we had one round of 22 24 post covid till 24 and then you know from ₹500 earning in Nifty it went to 1000 now it is stuck at 1100 1150 for last two years I think we are getting ready for again not 25% but 15 to 20% kind of growth for next two three years again so markets will move ah so my but because the participation is increasing every day I mean your SIP flow whether it is demat accounts opening still that is on.
So we are looking at a very exciting thing. So Your AMC Is Scaling Up Very Fast. My private equity is scaling west alt which is your private credit private equity that is doing very well. And so all the asset management is doing very well and buffed by even wealth management. That is also a UM base business.
The challenge is on the broking side which is you know what was the regulator does and second is the I banking where the deals last quarter last year first quarter was bumper IPO this now we are among the largest number of IPOs and QIPs ah what you call bankers so last year first quarter was ah bumper this year first quarter was dull.
Now the second quarter started off well. So, uh I'm that's a nature of the business. It's Lumpy in character. So but then my housing finance so of the four segments my asset management is doing very well it has done well broking has subdued my I banking is subdued but my housing finance is done very well so to our from both up to down I have 14% operating profit growth of 600 crores and mark to market is anybody's call absolutely absolutely let's go Ramdev ji thank you very much and all the best to you for this entire financial year thank you so much for joining me let's stay connected with this special conversation that's all with this voice.
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