Earning Growth & GST Cut Impact: December Outlook Explained by MOFSL Chairman Raamdeo Agrawal

요약 보기

GST 인하와 정부·RBI의 성장 부양으로 소비·금융 신용 확대가 본격화될 것이며, 특히 은행과 자동차 분야가 유리하다고 주장. 12월 분기 실적이 좋을 것으로 전망하고 3개월 내 시장 반등을 기대. 나스닥 대비 국내 증시 상승 기대와 함께 Nifty 25,000 상단·1,000포인트 하단 시각을 제시. 생명보험 GST 0% 전환은 보험 수요 확대 요인으로 언급.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. You clearly sound very positive on banking. I mean, I think you've already said banking seven or eight times. And what you said about credit growth, the RBI Governor, when he came last time, had said that perhaps there would be only one rate cut in the rest of the system, but in the last policy he had clearly said that now our focus will be on growth and we will do whatever is needed.

02. From here you are feeling that the EMI of people will be reduced and all this will have a multiplier effect, so in the banks, which pocket are you most bullish on? Then, about the banks, or do you feel that the entire banking system, the entire financial system, the entire NBFC system, will all work or not?

03. Look at your lending, the moment credit expands, the magic starts and then the issue is which bank has good leadership in distribution, everyone has it, that is, big banks have more students, small banks have their own niche and all, but does the leadership have that strength, as you have given MNA banking, look at what the government's intention is, what the Governor is doing is releasing the pockets which we have never opened, yes, well, if they get suggestions and understand them, then they will also do that, when the government gets down to work and says that we want growth, absolutely, so they have a lot of tricks, brother, assume GST is 18%, reduce it to 12%, there will be a fire in the market, you know, there are many You know they have tricks.

04. So How Much Government Wants? Well, the government is there in every way, be it through SEBI, in terms of RBI, be it fiscal, tax cut, in every way you are going to add ghee to the havan. Now it will take some time to reverse it. So I think the December quarter should be a good quarter to judge. There was a window of 12-13 days in between for GST.

05. It was 20 days old. Because of those 20 days, it seems your equation has gone a bit wrong. It got very bad. Meaning it got a little unsettled. The September quarter was a disaster. Then everyone will come crying after the results. Isn't it ? And after that, when will the commentary commentary come? For example, suppose it is the end of October.

06. Then he will have post Dussehra working for four or five weeks. When I talk to the company, everyone is confused that whatever is going well now, right now everyone is doing very well. But they had shaken so much in 20 days that they are not able to speak out that brother, it means we are in a traffic time, particularly automotive, so I think I will be very optimistic on December results, okay consumption to pick up and let's hear the comments, you have reduced the insurance rate from 18% to 0%, life is a very last segment and very under penetrated insurance for all by 20047, although in the short term there is a challenge because input credit will not be available, so they will suffer a little loss, but one should understand that brother, see, you used to pay ₹100, out of that you used to use ₹80, ₹82, ₹83 for insurance and used to send 18% to Delhi, the work of sending that 18% daily is over, you pay ₹100, you will get an insurance policy for ₹100, yes, I have never got such a deal.

07. Yes, that's right. You're talking about almost 20% more us kind of a coverage and under penetrated under covered. Those who have taken it have also taken a small policy. Absolutely, but it will take six to eight months for all this to happen. Yes, it will take some time for the atmosphere to be created.

08. So I think it will start from December. And we should have a good time. There will be great times ahead. It seems like what Ramdev Sir is saying. Well, there was no prominent voice in the market with which we did not celebrate Diwali. You have discussed it with everyone. How is everyone's overall mood?

09. It's very good. Very very everyone is quite bullish. Ah, I spoke to the biggest fund manager. I spoke to Ramesh Tamani ji. There was a conversation with Madhukela and Singhania ji. Talked to Ramdev ji. Kedia sahib came yesterday. Yes, Vijay Gadiya ji had come. He is also very positive about the market.

10. Today we are talking to Chaukhani ji and there is another special surprise lined up on Monday. So, we have talked a lot about this and most of the people are now a little bullish about the market. A. Everyone's main belief is that Main Rivers will play out this year. Because you did not do anything last year and according to compounding, see Ramdev Sir has said that Nifty will double in 5 years.

11. He has said that from here he sees the downside to be 1000 points and the upside to be 25,000 points. If you have that kind of view then it is a different matter if you have a view from year to year. By the way, in the view from Samvat to Samvat also he is talking about 300. I think I said 300 in the podcast for next year.

12. So I was wondering if I had said too much. Then yesterday when Ramdev ji spoke, I felt a little comfortable. I said okay, there is someone else too. But if I read it wrong, I will not be the only one who will read it wrong. I mean I will read something wrong with a great man. Well then. Well, the mood is mostly positive.

13. Because look, people are not able to understand this GST cut. When the corporate tax cut happened, this previous bull market started with the corporate tax cut. What was the issue? Corporate tax cut directly increases your EPS. This is one thing that happens when you directly catch your ear. One thing is that you turn around and hold your ears, but keep holding your ears.

14. So this GST cut at this time is the multiplier effect. It will just come with a little lag. So it will come but it will definitely have an impact.