저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
2017년 글로벌 관점에서 Marc Faber는 단기적으로 주식시장이 일시 반등할 수 있으나 2016년처럼 큰 폭의 상승이 반복되긴 어렵다고 본다. 러시아(+56%), 브라질(+66%) 등 신흥국 급등은 풍부한 유동성 덕분이었으며, 자금은 시장 간 이동한다고 설명한다. 인도는 장기적으로 기회가 크다고 보지만, 지수 전체 투자보다 개별 섹터 선택이 중요하다고 강조한다. 2016년 미국에서는 에너지 섹터가 가장 좋았고 고평가 성장주는 부진했다. 농업·식품 관련 기업(설탕 가격 거의 2배 상승, 플랜테이션)이 매력적이라고 제시한다. 2017년 최대 리스크는 지정학적 사건이며, 미·중 무역전쟁은 미국 소비자에게 더 불리하다고 본다(중국의 대미 수출 비중 18%, 대미 철강 수입 3% 수준). 또 다른 리스크는 과열된 자산시장이다. 선진국 채권 금리가 역사적 저점 근처이고, 10년물 금리가 1.34%에서 2.5%로 올랐으나 1.5~1.7%로 되돌아갈 수 있다고 봤다. 주식시장 시가총액/GDP 비중은 특히 미국에서 매우 높으며, 2011년 이후 미국 증시가 크게 초과수익을 내 조정 가능성이 있다고 경고한다. 조정 시 미국이 다른 시장보다 더 떨어질 수 있다는 것이 그의 견해다. 인도 시장은 2016년 신흥국 대비 부진했으나 장기 관점에서 긍정적이다.
다듬은 글
broader picture now what's the outlook for 2017 from a Global Perspective Mark Faber the editor and publisher of the Gloom boom and doom report joins us now Mark good afternoon Happy New Year to you it's great speaking to you at the start of a new year U happy New Year thank you we have big events lined up in India this month I mean you know there's there's earnings there's the budget and of course we're still reeling under the the aftermath of the demonetization impact something that you spoke about earlier where you said that you don't support it uh what's your view on India now for at least the next 6 months well I think the market became oversold uh a week ago and uh we can rebound somewhat here I don't think that the global markets will go up strongly uh we had actually last year some very strong rebounds in Russia up 56% in dollar terms Brazil up 66% in dollar terms and then we had in Asia many markets that were up between 15 and 30% I don't think this will be repeated next year but obviously we have this huge liquidity in the world and whenever somebody will sell something he will buy something else in other words if people sell the US dollars if people people sell the US Stock Market they can reinvest the proceeds somewhere else okay Mark High good afternoon so uh in Emerging Markets where would India rank right now because uh 2016 was one of the you know few years where Indian market actually underperformed the Emerging Market Universe by quite a margin yes it's not the first time that India has underperformed but I think the Outlook longer term and I'm a long-term investor I look ahead at 5 10 years I think that there are great opportunities but I'd like to point out one thing about markets in the last few years there has been a trend to index indexation in other words you just buy the index in a market and uh you hope that the index will go up and the instit utions by the indcs because the costs are low associated with ETFs that follow an index uh whereas active management the fees are higher and in the last few years the active managers have by and large underperformed the market but I think this is going to change if I look at last year some sectors and as I just pointed out some markets have performed very very well and I think in India it's a case of not necessarily owning the index but owning individual sectors as was the case in other markets last year in the US Energy was the best performing sector and other SE sectors didn't perform very well say the High Flyers the Netflix Facebook uh Amazon and so forth in the second half of the year they underperformed or even went down so I believe it's more a question rather than to worry about where will the market go but the question is what sectors will do best and before you had someone on your station that uh talked about agriculture and food stocks I think this is a sector that is actually attractive because agricultural commodity prices are depressed they've been going down since 2011 2012 and started to move up last year we say sugar almost doubling so I think that there is a play in agricultural companies plantations okay that's interesting I mean it comes at a right time because today in our own markets we have lot of sugar stocks Rising rice stocks are doing very well so I guess your point is well taken but you know to slightly come back to the bigger picture then um what is according to you the biggest risk for Global markets in 2017 the biggest risk in my view are geopolitical events you know I think it would be really a bad idea for the us to pick a trade war with China I think that China has much more endurance in terms of enduring hardship than the US and I think that the US consumer would suffer more from a trade War than China uh the us only accounts for 18% of Chinese exports and in the case of Steel uh the Imports in to the US from China are only 3% so you you can see that actually China doesn't depend on steel exports to the US for its well-being and they could easily divert part of the exports that go to the US today to other countries now the second risk which is frequently overlooked when Mr Reagan became president in 1981 he was elected in November 1980 asset markets were very depressed and interest rates at a very elevated level the treasury yield in America on the fif on the 20 years 30y year bonds was over 15% so he inherited a huge Tailwind of diminishing inflation falling interest rates and depressed assets that had a huge upside potential in the 1980s uh Trump he inherits and that's the biggest risk hugely inflated asset markets the bond markets in the developed countries as you know have the lowest yield they ever had in the history of mankind H the bond yields will not go much lower now can the 10 years yield that has gone from 1.34% to 2 and a half% can go back to 1.7% or one and a half% yes possible it won't go much below zero and number two when you look at stock markets as a percent of the economy the stock markets around the world as a percent of the economy are at a very high level especially in the US in other countries less so but in the US they are furthermore the US Stock Market has significantly and I repeat significantly outperformed other markets in the world since 2011 and it leaves it vulnerable to an adjustment the adjustment may happen with the US not going up a lot but other markets like India emerging markets in general Europe outperforming the us or it could happen with everything coming down and then the US underperforming going down more than other markets which actually would be my view what will happen
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