Important on: Jobs Recession, Tesla, Cathie Wood, & AI+Nvidia.

요약 보기

노동시장 둔화 신호(Sahm rule 0.37, JOLTS 공급 축소)를 경계하며 Bull-Bear 스케일을 6.5~7로 유지, 금리인하 기대는 과도하다고 봄. 테슬라는 연준 매파 발언으로 단기 부진하나 6~7월 인도량과 금융 혜택 기대로 장기 낙관. 엔비디아는 하루 8% 하락과 블로우오프 탑 패턴으로 기술적 약세, 펀더멘털상 PEG 4.8로 고평가. 비트코인은 하락 추세. 연준 금리 인하 기대 축소 및 장기 저금리 전망 제시.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. In this video, we need to talk about the labor market collapse or not. We've also got to talk about Tesla. Is it actually going to go up or is it just going to continue in the same trajectory that Nvidia went today, which surprise was actually down over 3% on Nvidia today. Is this the blow off of the top moment for artificial intelligence and what does that mean for the rest of the market?

02. In addition to that, what is the market pricing in when it comes to interest rate probabilities? We had some Fed speak over the last few days. How do we reconcile all of this and what do we think about Kathy Wood and her Tesla prediction? All this and more in this video starting with a really cool announcement.

03. Tomorrow, I will be starting or beginning my Vegas event. It's a three-day event and Kathy Wood will actually be speaking at the event. This is a super big surprise. I've not told anybody this until really the last hour here and this video and it's really a way of thanking everybody who had faith in signing up for the Vegas event without having the most clear picture possible of exactly who is going to be there.

04. Uh and this is really exciting. So, it's a last minute surprise. We're super excited about having Kathy and hosting Kathy and we can't wait to have a wonderful event uh with her speaking uh with me at the event and uh joining in on our Q&A. So, that'll be really Uh you can learn more about that event uh over at meetkevin.com.

05. That's also where you'll see that our next coupon code for the Stocks and Site course does expire on the 28th. Uh the coupon code is debate because that's the day Donald Trump and Joe Biden will be debating each other. Now, I'm really excited for that day mostly because I have no idea what to expect other than it's going to be a must-see TV and probably an SH90 show.

06. But that might be okay because frankly the market has been a little boring the last few days. Am I the only one who kind of feels that after the Fed CPI Fed and CPI reports of last week, market's kind of been a little like catalyst free. So I've been searching and I want to start with the labor market and the Tesla and the other things we were going to talk about.

07. So the first thing is on the labor market. I found an argument this weekend that I really found incredibly compelling about the labor market and it probably moves me a little bit on the Kevin bull bear scale. Remember Kevin's bull bear scale is 10 I'm all in, I'm in margin, like let's go we're going to the moon, okay?

08. To the moon. In fact, I got some new sound effects here. Listen to this. Tell me tell me who this sounds like or whom this sounds like. Buy the dip. Or or how about this one? Coupon linked below. Here's another. Pricing power. Yeah. So anyway, so a little excited just because I have this bull bear scale and lately I've been at about a six and a half to a seven following the CPI and Fed reports.

09. But I've consistently been a little nervous that the labor market is going to roll over a little faster than people would anticipate. We've started to see some unemployment claims numbers start ticking up a little bit and we've started to see estimates from the Fed suggest they're okay with higher unemployment rate.

10. The problem though is once the unemployment rate goes up about 1% from a low, historically it always goes up another percent. This is how we trigger recessionary rules like the SAHM rule which is flaring that we might be going into a recession sooner than we think, which isn't great. I'll pull that rule up so you could see it.

11. It's a Sahm Rule indicator. I've talked about it on the channel before, but since I mentioned it here, I wanted to bring it up again. This is what it looks like. It's basically just as it goes up, you're more likely to be confirmed as in a recession. What you're going to notice though, it doesn't peak until after the recession is usually over or almost over.

12. Actually, in every case, the rule peaked at the end of the recession there. Here's a case in '82 where we're still technically a little bit in a recession. But usually when the number goes positive, it doesn't go negative again absent a a recession. It did over here in '86. So, keep that in mind. We got to get to about a 0.33 on the rule, but right now we sit over here at 0.37.

13. So, usually when we run up like this, we're getting ready for something like what we saw here in '08, where you kind of keep going up, the dot-com bubble, where you sort of keep going up, over here in '74, where you keep going up until you're actually committed to being in a recession. And so, that's one of the things that's concerned me a little bit about, okay, well, if we do end up having a labor market weakening that is sudden and uh faster than expected, usually it comes all at once.

14. You keep this in mind as a tangent here. A lot of people are so concerned about what the consumer is doing. I think they forget that it doesn't matter what the consumer is doing. Even though the consumer is 70% of the economy, understand that. It matters what jobs are doing. Because as long as jobs are plentiful, the consumer is going to have buying power.

15. They're going to have pricing power. If they don't have a job, guess what happens to their ability to consume. I'm just going to let you think about that while I take a sip. Mhm. They'll look like that face. Not good. In fact, I probably have a sound effect for that. Uh how about reamed? Double reamed.

16. So, the jobs market matters a lot. And I've been a little nervous about it. We've talked about this for a while. There's this data that came out uh or a compilation of data that came out from this particular group called uh I don't know how to pronounce this. I'm just going to call them Dbank. Dbank is what we're going to call them.

17. Uh and what they do is they talk jolts. Not only do they talk jolts, but they talk about prime age labor force, labor force force participation, tightening of the labor market, uh the percentage of household employment versus establishment surveys, immigration. And when I first started reading this, I'm like, "Bro, how am I going to put all of this data together?

18. How am I going to consolidate this into one thought?" And that's exactly what they gave us, which was I was actually really impressed by. Take a look at this. Now, this is really difficult to understand at first, so I'm going to make this as easy as possible. US labor market in one chart. So, it's a spider web.

19. Now, to understand it, you want to think of the labor market as being good or like a decent roughly around this sort of blue line in the middle. This blue line in the middle that I've just sort of made red is the pre-COVID employment market. This line right here, this red in the center, this is your immediately after COVID market.

20. Like, everybody's like, "Oh my gosh, we're in a recession. This is horrible. This is really bad." And then the orange line is where we are today. And so, what's incredible is we've had so much data, and it's felt like so much freaking noise. I've been trying I've been trying to put together this data and find just how am I going to make sense of all this.

21. And this chart does it nicely. This chart basically shows that yeah, we have some gyrations. I'm going to fill in the gyrations over here. We have weaker hiring plans and slightly weaker hiring and slightly weaker jobs availability. But we have a lot more job openings uh which uh this is uh you know, job openings are the opposite of availability.

22. That's how many people are available to work, right? Uh and then unable to fill job openings and temporary help wanted, you know, these sort of offset each other over here. So, you can see the red is really what's different between pre-COVID and now. And we know that job openings via JOLTS are shrinking.

23. So, think of that as like the rubber band that's been stretched really far and now it's a saggy rubber band. And you kind of just have to like shape it again. That's roughly what it seems like is happening right now. Whereas consider when we were in a recession, when we were in COVID, look at how big of a difference the purple section here is uh that I'm drawing right now versus the red.

24. The purple shows you how tight it was then. The red is the only thing that's different now compared to pre-COVID. So, this very interesting. It It in my opinion, I'm going to remove some of the drawings here, gives a very good outline of uh what we're dealing with in the labor market. And this actually made me think as an investor I go, "Maybe I'm being too bearish on the labor market.

25. Maybe I'm not giving the devil uh the it's due so to speak." I added the blue, mind you. Okay, I translated it's still very loose, basically only portion tightening so far. I added the blue. Just want to make that clear. Um but it it made me a little bit more confident that this economy can still actually hold up because remember, one of the reasons I'm on the seven six and a half to seven scale on the bull bear is the reason I'm not on like eight, nine, or 10 is because partly because of AI, partly because of how long Bed might risk overcorrecting here, uh, and hiring, basically having a jobs recession.

26. This makes me less concerned about a jobs recession. Now, here's the problem though. We know that this is a very lagging indicator. So, I don't love that. Now, I personally think that consumer sent it like consumer sentiment, retail sales data is even more lagging because you lose your job, then you can't spend anymore, right?

27. So, I think this leads that, but initial claims, we would expect to start seeing some movement over here. We'd expect to see job openings. Like, for me to really get concerned about a recession, I'll kind of draw you what I think this should look like. Let's go ahead and use an orange color and uh, once we go with an orange color, we're going to go Well, that's sort of the line they have now.

28. That's maybe that's not the best color. Okay, how about then I'll go with a pinkish purple color. Okay, perfect. So, I would expect this dot to be here. So, job openings, right? Uh, employment claims, I know will come later. So, I'm going to leave claims roughly here or although I would expect them to start spiking a bit.

29. I would expect unable to fill job openings to actually uh, I mean, this is uh, this probably is a little bit more of a lagging indicator. Uh, that's that's a little bit more of a complicated one because this sort of implies that businesses can't find workers. I think it'll actually be really easy to find workers.

30. So, I don't know that that one would be so much of a negative. That one might actually end up staying somewhere over here. Uh part-time for economic reason, marginally attached unemployment. Some of these are just really going to lag. Quits, I would really expect quits to stay stable where they are.

31. People don't really want to quit in that sort of environment. Hiring plans, I would expect tank even more and it already has started to. And then hires would start shrinking in. So, you're actually starting to see where some of the elements uh are are starting to weaken where you would expect them to weaken.

32. So, like my line, if I kept payrolls unemployment like this, my spidey web would probably look a little bit more like this if I were to get concerned. So, I'd really need to see this move down very, very rapidly as a leading indicator in addition to these hiring surveys remaining weak. And then I'll start seeing a movement and a trend up in initial claims.

33. So, we'll see. Right now, what we're having happening here at job openings might still be part of a normalization. Okay. Obviously, this is interesting. Does it really move me off the 6.5 to 7? Maybe. It pushes me like to like 6.8 to 7. But, I'm going to probably wait before like I'm not making any changes just based on this yet.

34. A little too early. So, I just wanted to give that on labor. Now, let's talk uh Tesla and market. So, look. First of all, Bitcoin, I don't know what its problem is, but it continues to trend down. It did bounce off the 64 level pretty nicely. Yes, I have a li- a lot of lines drawn. I know. That's That's cuz I trade a lot.

35. I'm sorry. When I'm at home and I'm in the office and I got trading to do, I do my trading. We did have a good day trading mind you today. We were up in the stocks and psych group. We were up about 94, 96,000 today. So these were my This was my trading realized P&L today. There we go. I don't know why that was blurry there for a second.

36. 620 to 620. Oh, that's a little messy. And there we go. 96K. So it's pretty good. Just for transparency, I traded today with probably an average of about $70,000 at a time. And then I would just sort of go in and out of positions. Shorts, longs, you name it. Most of the money I made today was actually on AMD.

37. Actually lost money on Tesla today. So it's worth bringing that up. Remember I send all my buy . They're not guaranteed to make money. And look, I even have a sound effect for this now. Past performance does not guarantee, promise, or imply future returns. This is not personalized financial advice. Don't sue me, bro.

38. Coupon code expiring soon. I'm sorry. I'm going to I I love the sound effects. Sound boards are so cool. AI's gotten really good these days. So have So have um sound boards. So okay. With that, let's now talk Tesla. So Bitcoin's been falling. I think Bitcoin is a little bit of a hedge for the market.

39. But my Tesla thesis has not been playing out the way I thought. I thought after the vote passed that we would be getting some form of larger movement here and we just didn't get it. In fact, we're still in this nasty consolidation on Tesla. We have a really hard time staying above the 182 level and it's very frustrating.

40. Because we had a catalyst come out of the way. We had a great move in price here, which the volatility charts we talked about predicted this movement right here. So, it happened. It just we just didn't get a lot. I mean, we went from 173 to what? A high of like 187 intraday? Big freaking deal. 187 173 8% nominal for the volatility movement we got in Tesla.

41. And unfortunately, the problem here, I think, is that you had a Federal Reserve that stepped on the Tesla thesis. So, I don't have Tesla calls anymore. I had Tesla calls last week, but as soon as it stopped working, uh I closed the calls and I sent an alert to everybody in the stock market. I go I literally sent a Discord message.

42. I'm like, I don't think the momentum is there for the Tesla trade. That this isn't working. Bye, basically. Uh I like to try to send my thesis all the time. So, so that way you know what I'm doing. Um so, the issue with this is the hot Fed, whether this is Kashkari or some new member speaking on behalf of the Fed, Kashkari talking about it's likely to take a year or two to get back to 2% inflation, other members talking about it's going to take quarters of more data to bring rates down, uh the Federal Reserve revising up the terminal rate.

43. All of these things are heavily weighing on Tesla. And unfortunately, I think the next catalyst for Tesla has moved to Tesla's delivering numbers, which come out in about 11 days. Beginning of July is when we'll see them. So, the my enthusiasm for Tesla hasn't changed. It's just the way I'm trading it has changed.

44. You almost have to wait until either the first or second when we get our Tesla delivery numbers. Because in July we'll get the April, May, June numbers. And I'm somewhat convinced and enthusiastic about, although I could be wrong, not only now all of a sudden the Model 3 having the $7,500 tax credit, but I'm also enthused by the lower APR offerings that we're seeing from Tesla because they're implying that the sale that they did in May worked.

45. Now, you have to be careful because if you go to the Tesla website, you're going to find that not all of the vehicles have that offer. For example, rear-wheel drive Model 3s have the 2.99%. The all-wheel drive does not, the long-range, nor does the performance. And that's because there's a difference in where the tax credit is eligible versus where it's not.

46. No tax credit, they're giving you that 2.99%. And I believe if you jump over to the Model Ys, which I am curious to see how this financing is going to affect their margins, but I think it'll be okay. And if you go to the Model Ys, we're back to 6.39. These were offered at 0.99. So, you're kind of starting to see those numbers move up again a little bit in terms of the interest rate offers.

47. So, probably expensive for Tesla, but point is I think the market is trading the Federal Reserve here, and that's not a good thing for Tesla. It's certainly not a good thing for the solar industry right now, either, as we saw with solar stocks today. That said, there's also this question over did Nvidia today signal a blow-off the top?

48. Now, to understand this, we have to get off the average candlesticks. This is a very large magnitude candle over here. I know large sticks when I see large sticks. And a blow off the top is not good. Usually you would have a lot more momentum to the upside, but the fact that we closed for 135 uh, then we literally hit an intraday high of 140, only to go down to 130 is a huge shift because 14076 versus what we are at right now in post market is a move of 7 and 1/2%.

49. That's not good. And if you Google what a blow off the top chart looks like, you could just do this very simply. I just want you to be able to see it fact check it yourself. You get this. Rapid ascent, rapid decline. Now, it may not look that way in the chart that I showed you just there because I was zoomed in quite a bit, but I'm going to zoom out a little bit.

50. I'm going to go to the average candlesticks. I'm going to show it to you again. Do you see what I mean? That's a very rapid ascent. A blow off the top is a chart pattern that shows a steep and rapid increase in a security's price and trading volume followed by a steep and rapid drop in price usually on significant or high volume as well.

51. Right. Well, we're certainly elevated on volume. We've been elevated on volume quite frankly since about February. Not exactly sure why we've been so elevated on volume, but but look at the volume measures here. Volume, volume, all of a sudden right here, this moment around March is when that volume exploded and all these volume candlesticks look teeny compared to the amount of volume that's moving in on Nvidia.

52. I mean this it the volume moved by a factor of 10x. Now I know they did a 10 for one split, but the split was right here. And volume has actually declined since the split. So it's almost like whatever happened here led Nvidia volume to explode. Uh and that has potentially led to this creation of a blow-off top chart pattern.

53. And the fact that we've moved basically 8% in one day is bearish for AI. Now these are technicals. I uh people get mad at me all the time when I talk about fundamentals. I we can be very clear about this. If Nvidia can sustain more than 10, actually call it 20% growth every year for the next four years.

54. So we get to the end of this year which is their January 31st. And then we get 20% 20% 20% 20%. If we could do that four years in a row Nvidia's valuation is fine. However, if Nvidia gets to the end of this year, we end up at $2.70 of EPS, which puts us at 48 times earnings. And then after that, we have the Wall Street projected earnings which are 32.6% 9.85% 0.94% and -3.05%.

55. All that averages out to 10% per year. Well now you take 48 divided by 10, you're a 4.8 PEG. That is a ridiculously overvalued stock. Now this takes a crystal ball of looking into the future. Okay, well what's going to happen with AI demand? I don't know. Is Apple and or on device chips built by companies like ARM going to take Nvidia in France computer away.

56. Do we really need to keep training new GPTs or safe super intelligences as Ilya from open AI is now creating? Or people just starting to waste their money and have we done the training we need and now it's kind of like great until there's a new innovation. Maybe we don't actually need this much computer.

57. I don't know. That is ultimately for you individually as an investor to determine. The chart pattern doesn't look good. The Bitcoin is situation doesn't look good. What the Fed is doing to Tesla and Nphase and the interest rate sensitive does not look good. And they always say don't fight the Fed. Unfortunately, what all of that collectively could mean for this jobs information, which we could flip back over to the jobs chart.

58. Oh, sorry. That's just the P&L again for the coupon expiring next week on the stocks and site group. Sorry. Sorry. Uh Okay. Here we go. I'm actually really excited about that. I mean 96k trading on average like 70k today is a good day. I'm pretty happy about it. I think I think I might have myself a My Thai.

59. Maybe not. I got an event to prep for tomorrow. But anyway, there is a concern that this uh could happen. In other words, my purple version could happen. Right now markets are implying 1.85 rate cuts by December and where we are pricing in a full rate cut for immediately after the election. I don't think the debates are really going to change anything uh for quite frankly the um trajectory of this economy.

60. And then I don't think that you know, commentary like Barkin. I'm just reading this right here. My personal view is to let's get more conviction on inflation before moving forward. I mean, they're just going to say the same stuff and still like it feels like the most boring job. Like let's just do nothing until something breaks is what it feels like.

61. Obviously, they've been asked about this. Jerome Powell himself said, "No, we we are acutely aware that we do not want to go break something and we don't want to get to a situation like that." But if you end up breaking something, which quite frankly could very well happen, you will probably have rates that are in line with my thesis from a very long time ago.

62. And by very long time ago, I mean about 2 years ago. When I said that, I think you should mark your calendar for the early 2030s. I don't remember exactly what I said either, 33 or 32. Uh and by then, I think we will have a 30-year mortgage that is under 2%. Probably like 1.75%. A lot of people like, "Kevin, no way in hell you're smoking the dopies." And I'm like, "No, I'm not.

63. And I think I'm going to be right. Hence why I want to get my hands on as many assets as possible, namely more stocks in an ETF I can tax trade in, more real estate, more companies I can be involved in, startups, HouseHack, my you know, brokerage company, SuitHack, uh obviously, you know, the channel here.

64. I know I haven't posted as regularly. I got to get back into that. The event has taken a lot out of me just prepping for it and content and that. Um but anyway, hey, should be a fun weekend. We'll have uh Cathie Wood, Ben Mallah. Uh it's going to be a great group. Uh you can learn more about that at meetkevin.com.

65. I'm pretty sure we're pretty much out of tickets. There might be a few left. I'm not sure. There's a counter on there. Uh very limited tickets available. Yeah, whatever. You take a peek at that. So, um there you have it. Thank you so very much for watching. Go to meetkevin.com to learn more. Uh and uh make sure to subscribe.

66. Subscribe to meetkevin. Go to meetkevin.com. And if you have questions, email staff at meetkevin.com. I love this stuff. Where's stars and stripes? Uh this is how you got to do it. You got to have stars and stripes in there. We're going to have so much fun in the market open live streams. If you're not there yet, make sure you .

67. I'm there like every day the market's open at 5:25 a.m. But you got to you got to do it together like this. See you in the next one. Can you k.com.