저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준의 매파적 태도와 고용 악화 신호로 위험자산 매도 압력이 커질 수 있다고 주장. 엔비디아와 지수 집중도, 프랑스 재정 우려, 장단기 금리 역전(2년 4.7%대, 10년 4.22% 부근)을 근거로 제시. 비트코인 숏이 유효한 헤지라고 언급하며 테슬라 콜은 청산했다고 밝힘. 서버 임대가격 하락 추세를 엔비디아 수요 둔화의 선행지표로 해석. 영상 후반부는 코인베이스·보험 등 제휴 홍보와 강좌 할인 쿠폰 안내가 주를 이룸.
다듬은 글
There's Something Brewing and I don't know exactly what it is but the market is behaving Strangely I have some opinions as to what's going on but some folks are saying that the market is crashing inside out kind of like this is maybe a weird analogy but kind of like if you ever gardened and had aphids suck the life out of your plants there apparently these like killer wasps that'll come Land by the aphid stab the aphid inject a baby into the aphid the baby wasp then grows inside of the aphid eating the aphid from the inside out until all of a sudden explosion sorry for the graphic descriptive visual there but somebody sent me a message and they're like Kevin there's this growing Divergence between the equal weighted S&P 500 and the market cap weighted S&P 500 basically this is a way of saying that like Nvidia is going up and everything else is going down there are two potential ways to look at this one you could say the true economic reaction to what happened this week datawise isn't actually broadly being seen instead we're just sort of writing it off as oh it's a it's a risk off selloff that's what we had in the market today now why would I say that mind you okay well mostly because bitcoin's down about 3,000 bucks over the last couple days so shorting Bitcoin made sense on a day like today uh we'll talk about that strategically in a moment uh and you look at the QQQ you actually see it ended up half a percentage point but look at the downs and they're pretty remarkable on the downside you've got sun power down 99.82% % you've got Embraer out of nowhere is down 5'7 enas is down almost 4% vertiv one of those derivatives of uh uh server installs down 4% AMC down four C3 AI is down four Sofi is down five redfin's down four Robin Hood's down three uh Tesla down two and a half after the shareholder approval vote all of these stocks are reminiscent of generally risk on positions so when everybody feels you for it and interest rates are falling usually risk on rallies well we had a great CPI report a great PPI report and quite frankly we should be assuming that the Federal Reserve is more interested in pricing in some more rate Cuts in fact markets right now for the first time that I've seen really since about January of this year have started to price in more than two rate cuts by December now that's really interesting because previously we went all the way down to like 1.14 at one point we were barely pricing in rate Cuts anymore uh and now we're back to over two this comes after the data we get but an oddly hawkish Fed so how do we put all of this together we've got this Divergence in the S&P we've got this Tesla uh weird activity we've got Bitcoin we've got the sovereign debt crisis in France we've got a lot of a mess going on and a lot of folks are legitimately wondering Kevin this is strange help us make sense of this and so while I don't know as uh you know an expert exactly what is going on I'm going to do my best I'm going to mention that uh we are doing a quick one day just because there's so many folks to process here one day extension on the coupon code uh that we expired this Friday or Wednesday on CPI fed day I didn't post yesterday I've been overwhelmed sorry there's a lot going on this is my p&l in the stocks and sight group for this week which is really exciting that's realiz p&l but it should have been higher and no guarantees obviously that my future trading results which I send alerts for to those of you in the stocks and sight group uh will will always be profitable I actually can guarantee that it won't be you could lose a lot of money but my goal is to provide perspectives and one of the reasons I bring this up is I didn't actually make as much money as I thought I would on Tesla this week and and so I'm very surprised by that because the shareholder meeting was supposed to be a giant negative Catalyst off of Tesla shareholders backs so let's break this down one by one first of all Tesla Catalyst supposed to be really positive stock down odd why margins have bottomed I think sales are bottoming for the company 2024 will be your flattening period and you'll be off to the races with growth again quite frankly look making Tesla's valuation ironically look cheap you can value them at a 1.67 Peg and as long as you deliver about 3 million Vehicles by 2026 you know a little more than two and a half years away you're at a $300 stock really just pricing in a solid margin and none of the other stuff Insurance FSD I just use a little bit of a higher margin to price it in Optimus you don't have to go that nitty-gritty and try to price in Elon saying we're going to go to a 3050 trillion company you don't even have to do that to get a nice return between now and 2026 hopefully though but why then if the negative catalyst is gone and I'll play my interview with Yahoo finance at the end of this where I talked about Tesla why then would Tesla sell off well it's a symptom not of Tesla but off of this riskof attitude that's going on and it's an attitude that is amplifying central banks are about to break something see when we lose 695,000 full-time jobs and gain back 284,000 part-time jobs we start wondering maybe the FED has gone too far and they don't even realize it yet and I think that is the Crux of the problem we're facing now it's not the sovereign debt crisis in France though the sovereign debt crisis in France which quick explanation of that France has a lot of debt to GDP like over 130% I believe it's either 115 or over 130 the elections in France have led to the belief that the country is either going to default on some of its debt or it's going to take on a lot more debt and have a a less stable fiscal house basically you know cut taxes lower revenues increase expens what whatever the assumptions are you're seeing widening spreads in the French bond market for for these compared to other countries that's a problem because some people view that as Maybe creating a liquidity problem for an indebted country and if a country can't get access to money things start breaking you start getting all of a sudden maybe the European Union is going to have to do something dramatic to try to save France but then it Stokes inflation yet who knows all that like all these big words and noise aside the market is looking at things going hm cracks in the jobs Market cracks in people people's personal finance cracks in France H this is all symptomatic banking crisis right office real estate this is all symptomatic of a fed that's gone too far and the FED told us to our face hey you know we see the balance of risks between going too far and doing too little oh really you see those Balance risks as so clear that you would rather give us a hawkish SCP than revise your SCP incorporating the last amount of data so that you can actually prove your data dependent how can you possibly say your data dependent when you say yeah this new data came out but we generally just don't revise our opinion after the data comes out well which is it are you data dependent or are you not data dependent so what you end up with is a market that goes holy fuk we have a Fed that is so delusioned or or delusional or deluded that they think they're balancing risks when we're looking around going look at all of the problems we're seeing and so what you really have is a riskof selloff that's coming as a result of the federal reserve's summary of economic projection on Wednesday remember folks one of the most critical pieces of it was the FED telling us hey long-term we think rates are going to be higher oh and shortterm we think rates are going to be higher in two places they ignored data and said rates are going to be higher for longer what so you're telling us on one hand you're going to be data dependent but then when cracks are starting to form and data is coming in better you're not being data dependent you're sticking with that strategy so what sells off risk assets okay risk assets are interest rate sensitive stocks smaller cap stocks growth stocks where the growth is a little more speculative Nvidia let's be clear is a growth stock but at least right now the market values it as non speculative growth people like data centers uh uh based on gpus and Cuda will be the future all Nvidia right whereas with electric vehicles you have Elon badman eeve may not be the future China China China whatever right those are those are sort of countervailing factors that you don't actually have at Nvidia and you are still going through a growth bottoming process in Tesla it hasn't bottomed out yet growth so I think it has mind you but at least in the data we haven't seen it uh or in earnings we haven't seen it yet uh that's mostly because I think this interest rate offer is actually very good from Tesla and I think it's working very well but that's not going to eliminate the concerns that the broader Market has so it's much easier to go okay I want growth what am I going to invest in well Nvidia is going up so let's buy more Nvidia okay but what about Tesla the growth stock oh the growth stock that hasn't been growing its stock price for the last 3 years no thanks that's an overvalued car company that's sort of like your general like perspective of the market so and I don't align with that now I'm not always right but I personally think at some point I don't know when I haven't sold all my Nvidia I've certainly trimmed my Nvidia at these levels and I'm not actively increasing my allocation to Nvidia uh but at some point we are and we're already starting to see it mind you we actually talked to course M oh I haven't announced that here on the channel yet oo I might have to I I have to do a separate video on that but we did a course member uh live stream uh a couple days ago and what we did I think it was actually yesterday morning what we did is we looked at Invidia server availability for h100s at under $4 and the trend is straight up in English these servers are becoming more and more cheap which increases the break even costs if you're going to build a data center which makes it less desirable for you to buy data center chips which increases the chance that orders are going to slow for NVIDIA sooner so like let me rephrase that if Nvidia is going to crash the first thing you would see is more available server time separately we are starting to see more available server time at lower prices okay see where I'm going with that okay now with that uh I suppose it should I really should just pull up that screeny really quick let me pull it up because this is the kind of stuff I always like to give a sort of early perspective on uh to course members and and again I I'm I'm sorry I don't want to seem flippant with like the expiration the net price after a coupon code goes up over time that's very very simple we're just doing a quick thing today to catch up on people who still want in before we remove the coupon code uh completely uh and and then all of a sudden it's substantially more expensive to get it so if you want lifetime access get in before 11:59 tonight okay uh and then everybody's off for the weekend which is great but take a look at this uh this is the chart that I posted in Discord ignore all this red Oh wrong thing uh H okay hold on a sec uh I'm going to post in just a moment this chart in Discord or that I posted in Discord I want you to ignore for a moment all of the red that's all like sort of my note-taking and theorizing but just know percent of minutes an hour an hour with on demand availability for h100s and and the trend is is clearly up I added the red line but you can see the trend is clearly clearly up all the other stuff is more like course member notes and stuff I talked about uh now this is just one data point and obviously the plural of you know one is not uh like a guaranteed Trend so I I could think of a more eloquent way to say that but let's just make this very simple the market is showing frustration over the Federal Reserve reaction to really good data the Market's flushing out that wait a minute you said you're going to be data dependent and you're not being data dependent that pisses a lot of people off okay so what happens you sell off interest rates sensitive in Risk Assets Now what is one of the easiest risk assets to short Bitcoin just buy something like biti that does not make me anti- crypto that doesn't make me anti Bitcoin it makes me look and say if risk assets are going to sell off what is also going to sell off and is immune to the fluctuations of company earnings calls or company announcements or Nvidia going up right like if I shorted the cues I'd lose money today because N Video went up so much and and the cues are up obviously shorting Nvidia is very very difficult I've lost money shorting Nvidia before it's a bad idea and I've I've told people regularly that even though it's desirable to short it's a very very hard stock to short until the downtrend starts you're more likely to get burned before you actually start making money and that makes it a really really hard short which is probably also why the stock isn't going down because nobody wants to short it because nobody wants to get hosed but fundamentally it should be going down at some point I just don't know what that is so I'm not going to touch it so instead of shorting Nvidia I just go short Bitcoin because it's immune to Nvidia it's immune to individual company idiosyncratic issues at companies or announcements earnings surprises whatever and it goes down when risk assets go down if you look at the 1hour chart of BTC we are on a pretty solid downtrend right here we keep hitting lower lows and we're getting lower highs pretty consistently the trend is here this is just on the hour chart we got a double top at 71 so uh I I I you know I don't know that there's a hurry but if a we're going to have a risk selloff shorting Bitcoin and shorting coinbase could prove profitable could not guarantees not a guarantee not personalized Financial advice you could lose money I know some people ask me that Kevin weren't you buying a bunch of Tesla calls I was uh on Wednesday pretty sure it was the answer Wednesday on Wednesday it was either Wednesday morning or Thursday morning I can't remember it may have been Thursday morning we did a course member live stream and I'm like I need to get out of my Tesla calls not because I don't believe in Tesla and believe that this is a good Catalyst but because the momentum that we're seeing after the vote has been approved is not what we are expecting so something broader is happening so we're going to take profits and when I say we I mean me I should just say I'm going to take profits I don't TR for you if you lose money it's your right I just provide perspective that's all I do uh and so I closed I don't have any Tesla calls right now which I want Tesla calls but I'm grateful today I didn't have any Tesla calls cuz the darn thing crashed right at the open like I went into this morning with zero Tesla calls and look at this I mean look at the lines we're in no man's land we just crashed down to my 82 to 183 range you know these lines have been here for a while I didn't add these today to be like haha see look I have L like these lines have been here for a while then it crashes guess to where oh wow 178 bounce and plays literally within this trading range I'm actually just noticing this right now because I didn't pay attention to it too much today because I didn't have calls on it today so I'm like oh how convenient you know now in hset I'm like it's perfect bounce bounce bounce bounce over here bounce bounce B these are some pretty gnarly lines uh this purple one I think I did some random day trade with it usually you want to pay attention to my yellows which are like these are pretty decent and my Blues are usually the strongest sometimes if I like see something intraday I'll throw a purple down but I I need to just get rid of those and just stick to these two colors otherwise we're going to start looking like the rainbow but this is crazy and then when we fell out of that range we couldn't get it back up we kept getting rejected there so ta is not fugazi it's it's pretty straight up uh like this is what happens the reason this happens is because a lot of people look for similar Trends and it's sort of self-fulfilling in that sense uh anyway okay so so fed being pissed off is getting priced in obviously consumer sentiment was like poopy D doopy this morning on the consumer sentiment numbers and the inflation expectations were higher but they shouldn't be because inflation is falling unless of course this one inflation report was just an outlier and we're not going to go back to bad like good inflation reports I don't believe that but that it is a possibility and then you have stagflation but overall my point of view and I'm going to play my Yahoo finance interview here but overall there's something going on too many things are starting to crack and you're starting to see the vix go up that's your volatility index uh in fact look at the day chart here uh yeah but you're barely going up so this is the weak chart on the volatility index it's been straight down on VA on the day chart you're pretty dang low on volatility still but but something is starting this is the non- average Candlestick let me go to the 1 hour something's starting to brew I I one hour still it's it's too hard to really see uh that there's anything yet I mean all I know is the vix was up 6% today but I wouldn't be surprised to see this have another little leg up I mean certainly before the election you know stocks almost always sell off before the election but anyway I don't know exactly what's going on I know risk assets are most at risk of a sell-off here there's some weirdness going on where Nvidia and probably honestly indexation is just propping up the market indexation is a problem indexation is a problem because you just continue to allocate to stocks that are going up um you know without much in my opinion fundamental thought actually zero fundamental thought in indexation but whatever uh Apple's doing well but not as well as I thought I thought we're going to go over 250 pretty soon the trends started dying within the last uh you know couple days here now I made money on Apple but I also had some trades that were red on Apple uh but my net net up so look if you want all my Buy sell alerts I send them in my stocks and site group I send you my thesis if my thesis is wrong I show you like here's how I'm flipping on it or whatever like yesterday I was shorting coin if I didn't get stopped out on it it would have been really good today so I did take a little bit of it I think I I was down like 6K or whatever uh which is a big deal but uh you know it would have paid out really nice ly today but my stop loss triggered and usually I don't set stop losses but I was playing with this new feature on Weeble stupid because if I kept it I would have been up quite a good chunk today um but that's okay would have could have should have don't do what it could have should have so again fed pissed off because of the FED a lot of cracks in the economy that the FED may not be paying attention to therefore uh you are getting this environment where interest rate sensitive stocks are going down at the same time as bond yields are going down you're at 422 on the 10year so it's like oh that's weird usually when yields go down risk assets go up uh yeah exactly and then I'm just pulling here if we're at 422 on the 10 year and on the 2year we are at 47 oh wow we just inverted more wow 48 basis points inverted we just went up another eight basis points we're going deeper into inversion well that sort of corroborates what we're saying here uh greater risk of recession that's what's being priced in this this is why I haven't gone full bull you know a couple days on Wednesday after the FED meeting I'm like okay these CPI numbers take me from like a 4 and 1 half to a 6 and A2 along with PPI and and the other numbers that we're getting but 6 and 1/2 even to seven is still a d or C on the bull scale like low uh so these cracks it's just G be a matter of time to see how bad they end up being anyway if any of this makes you nervous get yourself up to 200 fre by signing up for an account with coinbase go to metkevin.com coinbase paid promotion get yourself life insurance in as little as 5 minutes go to metkevin.com sign up for Weeble also pay promotion sign up for Weeble get up to $3,000 when you open account at Weeble metkevin.com Weeble also pay promotion and check out the coupon code over at kevin.com thank you so much and that coupon code is dotplot plot is what we're calling that right now and u
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