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Howard Marks는 금융시장이 저금리 시대에서 고금리 장기화로 넘어가는 '대전환(sea change)'의 초입에 있다고 주장한다. 금리 전망: 연준이 중립금리로 돌아가야 하며, 인플레이션이 2%로 내려와도 금리는 0~2%가 아니라 2~4% 수준에 머물 것으로 본다. 배경: 2009~2021년 대부분 제로금리였던 시기는 비정상적 부양이었고, 1980년 금리 20%대에서 2020년대 초 제로금리까지의 긴 하락 추세를 정상으로 착각하면 안 된다고 강조한다. 자산 배분: 고정수익(채권성 신용자산) 비중이 늘어날 것이며, 사모대출·기업대출 등 신용상품이 주식 수준의 수익률을 더 안전하게 제공한다고 본다. 연금 등 기관은 7% 목표수익률 때문에 단기 국채 5%만으로는 부족하다고 지적한다. 주식 관련: S&P500의 100년 연평균 약 10% 수익률을 언급하지만, 금리 환경 변화로 주식 중심 포트폴리오가 달라져야 한다는 취지다. 특정 종목 언급은 없다. 출연자 견해: 예측은 잘 하지 않으며 자주 틀린다고 말한다. 다만 금리가 내년부터 2~4%로 점차 내려올 것으로 본다. 리스크: 금리가 높게 유지되는 환경 자체가 차입자·자산 보유자에게 부담이며, 실버밸리은행 붕괴 등 저금리 종료 충격을 언급한다. 결론: 과거의 쉬운 돈 시대를 전제한 투자 방식을 버리고 현재의 금리 환경을 인정해야 한다는 메시지다.
다듬은 글
in a recent interview legendary value investor Howard Marx said we never know where we're going but we sure as hell better know where we are and this is what he lays out in the interview he talks about the massive sea change he sees happening in financial markets right now and he talks about what he thinks people should do and what he's doing hi everyone JJ here with the out of value welcome well let's get into more of what Howard Mark said during this interview with David Rubenstein Mark said that he thinks investors are on the precipice of a massive sea change in financial markets and we are no longer in an easy money environment Mark says he expects interest rates to stay relatively high for the foreseeable future but he does want the Federal Reserve to get to a more neutral position Mark says that if it's the sea change that he thinks it is what we should have in our portfolios can be quite different than what it has been however what we also have to keep in mind is that Marx is the founder of his company called oak tree Capital Management and they now run about a 100 8 billion of funds under management so that's quite different from retail investing they can invest in things that we can't quite different sort of investing generally about the massive sea change he sees happening in financial markets he says that anyone who's been investing since about 1980 and that's pretty much everybody investing today has only seen declining interest rates in ultra low interest rates and people think that's normal and that we're going back to that over time but he says he doesn't necessarily think that's the case he says we have to recognize it and that's why he called it a sea change cuz it doesn't happen very often and it's a very important pivot in financial markets in the interview they also talk about his famous public memo that he writes periodically consistently he says it's not data driven he writes it from his own experience but he's not a futurist and he's not a forecaster he tries not to forecast things he just looks at what's happening now and talks about that from his own experience this is when he says we never know where we're going but we sure as hell better know where we are right now so he writes about right now what he sees in financial markets what's happening and of course he says that has implications for what happens tomorrow what happens next and further down the line now David asked him about this important memo that he wrote called sea change I've made one video on that already I'll link to that in the description if you haven't seen that already but it's where Marx talks about this higher race environment that he sees this important change to higher rates for longer which the FED is mentioning right now too but that's what he says going forward and the environment around that how does the interest rates affect the financial markets and the economic environment now Marx points out that back in 1980 when rates were 20% he had a bank loan that was 22% and he said that 40 years later when rates were zero and he had a bank loan that was just over 2% he says that's a monument mental change over that time and that it's underrated he thinks it's the single most important event in financial markets and it doesn't get the credit that it deserves it's a Monumental event the sea change it's a huge difference in rates and it has a big effect now Mark says that there have been three SE changes throughout his investing career which spans over 50 years and he says this third one follows on from the second one which spanned from 09 obviously that 2009 date is the bottom of the financial markets during the global financial crisis March 2009 the S&P 500 bottom then and he said the FED lowered rates to zero to fight the financial crisis and didn't have much luck raising it through the years after that it stayed very low and never Rose to what one might call normal rates it stayed at emergency levels for all that time after the financial crisis and he says in that very low rates environment for all that time it was very easy for borrowers for asset owners for businesses it was easier to run a business it was the longest bull market run and the longest economic recovery in history because of these low rates and the Easy Money environment now if you're getting value out of this video so far and you're watching on YouTube or on X please remember to hit that like button to help the algorithm to spread it to more people thanks now if you want to go the extra M to support the channel you can now go here to buy me a coffee I'll put a link in the description as you understand it takes quite a lot of time and effort each week to put these videos together so I'd really appreciate that support if you feel like it thanks Marx points out that if you read articles about the recent Silicon Valley Bank collapse they talk about this easy money environment how that's ending and he says that's what his sea change memo was really about that's what the sea change is about this ending of the Easy Money environment now David rubinson here says to Marx that the conventional wisdom in Washington with the FED is that once they hit that 2% Mark target range with inflation and inflation has been coming down doesn't he think that they will lower interest rates again and we'll have another say 20e period of relatively low interest rates that is the conventional wisdom out there a lot of people think that's going to happen as inflation comes down that we'll have low rates for a long time again he asked why doesn't Marx think that as well Marx says that he agrees that rates will come down he thinks that they'll be between two and four eventually as inflation comes down but they just won't be between 0er and two like they have says that was an emergency measure after the global financial crisis and we won't see that again he says rates were at zero or near zero for the majority of the time between 2009 and 2021 and that's inappropriate he says it stimulates and it's like having a shot of adrenaline every morning for 13 years and you can't have that it's too much stimulation for the economy he said says that kind of very low rate subsidizes borrowers and penalizes Savers and lenders and he would like to see the FED get back to a more neutral rate which is neither restrictive nor stimulative this is why he describes his desired rate as between two and four he says if inflation comes down to 2% then the Fed rate needs to be higher than that to have a positive real funds rate Mark says if it's the sea change that he thinks it is what you should have in your portfolio can be quite different than what it has been he also said that he hasn't found resounding support for his position on this now he did talk about this in a follow-up memo further thoughts on sea change where he said there's going to be a sea change in the kinds of assets people are going to want to own he thinks people are going to want to own more fixed income assets because rates are higher for a longer time and there'll be a better return on those assets than there has been Marx points out that the S&P 500 stock index has returned just over 10% for about a 100 years that's a great return enough to turn $1 into $115,000 over time but today he said you can get Equity type returns for what we call Credit instruments so he's really talking about in his professional environment big money institutional money environment because he's talking about loans corporate loans for buyouts or low double digits on private loans for buyouts he says the best buyout the biggest buyout is doubl digigit returns isn't that enough he said and he says that Returns on credit instruments are much safer than Equity markets he says they have a good level of safety and they're now fully competitive with returns from Equity markets David asked why not just buy treasury bills because you can get about 5% on treasury bills and just go to the beach isn't that enough Mark says maybe so but not for his clients for instance Pension funds need about 7% so they can't put much into five he also points out that with treasury bills that's the rate for the next 30 days but after that you have to reinvest and the rate might be lower 3 or 4% so you never know you're not tying your money up for long enough to get that return over a longer period so David asks if he's forecasting that say Pension funds and endowments who have been putting money into private equity and the equity markets and Venture Capital will be putting their money into fixed interest assets instead and Mark says that he doesn't know if that's what they're going to do but he thinks that's what they should do Marx does say that he thinks interest rates will come down to about 2 and 4% starting next year as inflation starts to come down more but he says that he doesn't often make predictions and that he's quite often wrong he says you shouldn't go into investing unless you're prepared to be wrong he says the greatest investors are right about 60 70 sometimes 80% of the time and if you're the kind of person that doesn't like to be wrong any of the time and you shouldn't go into investing that's his advice for younger people now if you're watching this on YouTube I'm going to put a link here to one of my previous popular Howard marks videos about how he has managed to predict crashes and recoveries in financial markets I'll put that in the description as well and here I'll put a link to what YouTube thinks that you should watch next thanks for watching all listening and I'll see you in the next one
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