저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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경제는 현재 역사상 가장 위험한 시기 중 하나이며, 팬데믹 이후 막대한 재정·통화 부양과 높은 금리, 우크라이나 전쟁·중동 분쟁 등 지정학 리스크가 겹쳐 있다는 진단. 경기 인식: 정부 지출과 연준의 약 4조달러 유동성 공급이 만든 '설탕 과잉(sugar high)' 상태로, 기업 이익 상승도 지출 덕분이며 소비 여력은 약화 중. 개인 저축률은 2020~21년 15~30%에서 현재 2~4%로 2008년 이후 최저 수준. 금리 전망: 시장의 '금리 인하' 기대는 틀리기 쉽고, 오히려 금리가 더 오를 가능성이 높다고 봄. 정부 적자·국채 발행 확대와 외국인 수요 감소, 그린에너지·에너지 전환·재무장(재군비)·무역 재편이 인플레이션 요인이라 장기금리(10년물)가 오를 수 있으며 이에 따라 경기침체 가능성도 대비해야 한다는 입장. 지정학: 우크라이나 전쟁(사상자 60만, 유럽 에너지·식량 비용 충격)과 이스라엘 테러 이후 공급 충격과 무역 블랙메일이 누적됨. 미·중 관계: 중국을 두려워하지 않으며 대화와 관여를 권고. 다만 대만 전쟁은 발생 시 대공황급 충격이 될 수 있는 최대 위험으로 꼽음. 투자 조언이나 특정 종목에 대한 직접 언급은 없음.
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you said this may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades why do you think it's the most dangerous time Jamie Diamond CEO of JP Morgan Chase is one of the most revered Bankers to have ever lived and while you might say well come on Brandon what are we really going to learn from the head honcho of America's largest bank I think it's important to remember the insights that a person like Jaimie gets that come along with the job he's got his hand in virtually everything going on here and abroad they have more than 60 million customers he employs more than 300,000 people around the world has business in the Middle East and China and heavily involved of course in policy in Washington and while I don't tend to get caught up with the political side of Jamie Diamond when he starts talking about the economy I tend to tune in especially when he sits down for 30 minutes to do a deep dive on why he believes we're in the most dangerous time period we've seen in decades and it's usually at this point in the video before I play your clip that I'd like to take the time to remind everyone that of course nobody can predict the economy and all of this is based on informed opinion however today we have a special guest delivering that message Jamie Diamond himself so first of the most important things the stuff we've already spoken about you I tell my own people that J more chase the economy is the weather you know and people are always trying to guess what the weather's going to be and you know what you're making a mistake it might snow it might rain it might be icy outside it goes up it goes down as a company we're prepared for all that so first things first we have to remember that nobody can truly predict where the economy is headed but I guess for Jamie in his position as CEO of JP Morgan he sees the pros he sees the cons and from that he still sees many headwinds approaching and in this talk he's trying to get some of those points across particularly to the people who look at say spending and unemployment and scream from the rooftop that everything is looking fantastic when people look at the current economy and things are going good stocks are up and we've had a little bit of of drugs injected directly into our system called fiscal stimulation the largest we've ever had in peacetime and Q the the largest monetary stimulation two different things different effects but they are drugs running through the system and they create this kind of sugar high and we're in a sugar high this is an extremely important point to remember we have to take a step back and ask what has caused the economy to run hot ever since March of 2020 the answer is because the government and the central bank has intervened in a massive way to assist Americans and somewhat Kick the Can down the road the Staggering statistic that I always reference is that the Federal Reserve has printed around $4 trillion since 2020 and that's money that for the most part has simply fallen into the lap of US citizens and businesses now don't get me wrong Co was a major economic crisis but because the government and the Central Bank wounded itself in order to help the average Joe what this means is that it's only now years down the track where we're finally starting to see all of that catch up it's only now that consumers have Whitted down their savings boost and that their household balance sheet is coming under pressure I don't know if it's going to end in a soft land in your or something like that but when people say well corporate profits are up this is up yeah corporate profits up because people are spending a lot of money where do they get the money the government gave it to them well of course profits are up you know when they stop spending money corporate profits will go down so I'm a little worried that we're in that little bit of a sugar height and we don't understand it so in Jamie's opinion we really need to be cautious we need to understand that the consumer will now start to struggle look at the personal savings rate during 20120 and 2021 Americans were able to save a lot around 15 to 30% of their income but now savings rates look pretty dire we're seeing the lowest savings rat since 2008 people are only able to tuck away around 2 to 4% of their income and why is that happening it's because of this interest rates going up this makes debts like mortgages more expensive so more of your income gets confiscated via interest payments this means less disposable income people thus buy less and businesses suffer so not quite as sugary sweet as what many may think which was exactly Jim's point now this squeeze on on consumers can be eased if interest rates start to fall and with inflation falling to more comfortable levels many are starting to predict this action from the Federal Reserve however the tough bit that jimie is seeing and this is something that Ray doio is seeing too is that there probably isn't going to be a major reprieve in interest rates anytime soon and you think that J Powell may still raise rates you don't think he's finished the prevailing view is he's done yeah and maybe we'll actually go the opposite way the prevailing view you know take a chart of The prevaling View before every major inflection point and it's always been wrong so like I don't look at the prevailing View and nor am I trying to guess so my view about the economy is I think there's a higher chance than other people that rates have to go up think of short rates and 10year rates the Federal Reserve sets short rates they simply dictate it through and can manage it through a bunch of means they do not set the 10year rate that is set by you supply demand inventory sentiment capital requirements around the world and those Capital requirements are huge governments have the biggest deficits ever and they have the biggest debt ever and as Rayo has been saying recently because the US government runs such a big deficit and thus it needs to sell a whole lot of bonds to foreign investors whose appetite for us treasuries is waning it's highly likely that the US will need to keep interest rates up higher so that they are still able to entice the buyers for the flood of bonds that will be sold by the treasury when vulka raise rates you know the deficit was small and the debt was small and now it's far bigger than that governments need more money the green economy is going to need more money uh the the European e energy situation requires money uh the restructuring of trade is going to be inflationary the remilitarization the world's inflationary so I look there are a lot of things out there that which are both dangerous and inflationary so I just say be prepared you know it's rational if you work work on a risk rate that the rates may go up both the short rate and the 10year rate and be prepared that that might lead to a recession So Jamie is still seeing a lot of government projects in the world that require a lot of money and thus require a lot of bonds to be sold and he's also seeing a lot of inflationary factors in the future that may dictate a higher interest rate environment to keep inflation under control so his main message is to ensure that we don't go off into La La Land I like this talk from Jamie because he's not really being as alarm as to say the economic hurricane incident but he's instead taking more time to reason through the points and yeah just War warning us that we need to be prepared for whatever the economy throws at us and that's very much a theme of his management of JP Morgan just being prepared for any eventuality so that's the broader economic stuff but then on top of that Jamie also sees additional complicating factors and this is really why he thinks we're facing the most dangerous economic time period in a few decades you said this may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades why do you think it's the most dangerous time you know if you look at history and you open a newspaper of any month of any year and of course there's always tough stuff going on Wars and depressions and recessions and but if you look at this time and what's happening in Ukraine a 600 mile front free and Democratic European nation 600,000 casualties huge humanitarian crisis NATO on the border of NATO nuclear blackmail uh and it's affecting you know all oil and gas migration food costs and all International military and econ e omic relationships that's pretty tough and that was before the terrorist attack in Israel so on top of that Baseline economic condition of the world in the post pandemic era we've now also got many complicated geopolitical issues that stack on top Jam's obvious example is the Russia Ukraine conflict as this has had a very large economic impact on the world of course it's affected the energy Commodities going to Europe and particularly the UK but it's also had a major impact on the flow of oil and oil prices around the world and also food particularly grains so on on top of the pandemic induced inflation and high interest rates you also get these Supply shocks hitting different parts of the world and on the political side you also have much more trade related blackmail than what we saw previously now there's also a lot of military relationships being negotiated and formed so it's not that Jamie is saying the world is going to fall apart it's just that right now there are a lot of potential economic trigger points which naturally makes it a more dangerous environment because any one of them could escalate and cause that little Chain Reaction but my view is when you have this kind of risk you better deal with it very seriously because the chance of something going wrong is high and if it goes wrong the the cost of that will be enormous so that's that's just how I look at it and so I look at those things as kind of it's dangerous and you know we need we need to get through it now hopefully it'll all go away but if you look at the history of battles like this they're unpredictable you don't know the full effect and so this is really complex and obviously it's affecting America and China and that was the last topic that Jamie spoke about in this interview the relationship between the US and China of course as Ray Doo would say at the present time we've got an established power being the United States butting heads with the rising power in China so does Jamie Diamond who by the way conducts a lot of business in China does Jamie Diamond see a future conflict brewing with the US and China I'm not afraid of China okay we have all the food War energy we have the Atlantic and the Pacific we we are have not pissed off our neighbors we got great relationship with Mexico and Canada you know they have a very complex neighborhood they've done a pretty good job angering their all the people around them and who are all REM militarizing Japan the koreas Philippine Indonesia Vietnam Afghanistan Pakistan and India and whatever you think about Russia they're not great friends you know like in like mere 30 or 40 years ago there were armies on both sides between Russia and China so and they have to import 10 million barrels of oil a day they've got terrible demographics so I'm not afraid of China I think we should engage exactly the way the administration's doing it today the complexity of China will will work that we want to be at the table and I think it's good for an American Bank to be there to help America you know multinationals around the world and China with their own development if it makes sense so Jamie definitely doesn't see a major conflict coming between the two great Powers as many people are predicting at the end of the day as he says America wants a seat at China's table in the same way that China wants a seat at America's table this was always one of Charlie munga's great points he would say it makes absolutely no sense to go to war with China because then you destroy a mutually beneficial relationship now of course it's not saying there won't be hiccups that's to be expected but all the bumps in the road generally equate to the powers acting in a defensive manner securing their own National Security interests every nation has National Security interests you know ours is semiconductors and and uh you maybe some data but you know for Europe it's energy they are completely reliant on outside parties for their energy you know even for China they import I think nine or 10 million barrels of oil a day so every country is going to be look at its own National Security interest and so it's a very complicated subject so at the end of the day countries can be expected to act in their own interests and close their own security risks but he doesn't anticipate this to escalate into anything further than what we're seeing the one thing that diamond does consider a potential problem however is what China does with Taiwan if there's a war in Taiwan you can take all bets off that will be a major depression a major America will better off than China it would be really tough no one thinks that's going to happen it may happen so as a risk manager JP Mor can handle that but that would be really bad for the world and really bad for China really bad for the people of China so I don't think it's going to happen but you know I you can't say it won't so you you know have to be prepared for it and uh but I think the best thing to do is to help the American government figure out what we need to do to protect our national security protect our allies keep the Western alliances together and make it clear to people who are adversaries or potentially average SE what the cost to them will be of bad actions that's what we should do and with that they are Jamie Diamond's updated thoughts on the global economic situation as it stands today I'd love to hear your thoughts too do you agree do you disagree let me know that stuff down in the comments below uh also if you're interested in getting started investing of course check out new money education in the links below but guys apart from that I'll see you all in the next video
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