저자: 짐크레이머 · 외국인
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연준 고용·물가 데이터 기반으로 소프트 랜딩 기대가 살아 있어 금리 동결 상태에서도 주식 상승 여력이 있다고 본다. 연준 발표 전후 과도한 금리 방향 추측 게임에 휘둘리지 말라는 메시지가 핵심이다. 11월 고용지표는 19.9만 명 증가, 실업률 3.7%로 예상보다 낮아 경기 견조·임금 안정으로 해석했다. 다우 30p, S&P500 0.41%, 나스닥 0.45% 상승 배경으로 제시됐다. 연준은 다음 주 수요일 회의에서 금리를 중립적으로 유지할 가능성이 크며, 이 중립 자세가 현재 주식 보유를 정당화한다고 봤다. 금리 인하 시점 예측 게임은 무의미하다는 입장이다. 오라클은 월요일 실적 발표 예정으로, 장기 AI 전환 기대가 있어 자신의 트러스트 포트에 보유 중이며 AI 강세론이 맞을 것으로 봤다. 캐리어는 독일 히트펌프 인수 우려가 있으나 CEO를 신뢰한다고 밝혔다. 트레인 테크놀로지스(TT)는 성장성 부재로 회피해 왔으나 주가가 올해 12% 이상 하락해 저평가 매력이 생겨 검토 중이다. 어도비는 실적 후 피그마 인수 관련 반독점 리스크가 있으나 기업 가치 판단은 긍정적이다. 코스트코는 장기 보유 중이며 단기 매매 대상이 아니라고 했다. 아마존과 코스트코는 도난 리스크가 낮은 회원제·온라인 모델로 프리미엄을 지불할 가치가 있다고 평가했다. 토월브라더스의 호실적을 언급했고, 레나르(Lennar)는 주택 건설 기업으로 긍정적으로 보며 연준 입장에 따라 상승 여력이 있다고 전망했다. 달든 레스토랑은 소비자 가치 추구 흐름 속 실적 확인 대상으로 언급했다. 페어아이색(FICO)은 신용평가 서비스로 금리 하락 시 대출 활동 증가 수혜가 기대되며, 고평가이지만 장기 보유할 만한 기업으로 긍정적으로 언급됐다.
다듬은 글
Now hey I'm Kramer welcome to May put it all in context so call me at 1800 743 CNBC or tweet at Jim Kramer oh we dodged a bat today when the big monthly unemployment number came in Fairly hot with big job creation numbers 199,000 November causing the unemployment rate to fall to a lower than expected 3.7% just enough for us to say the economy remains healthy with without much inflation as wages didn't rise too much that means the soft Landing thesis is Alive and Well giving the averages another reason to Rally with the Dow gting 30 points S&B advancing 41% nasda Club 45% because we're just not that all worried about the FED right now which brings me to the game plan for next week because on Wednesday the Federal Reserve tells us its next move couple with J Pal's press conference now anyone who's watched this show knows where I stand on pal I said it wasn't his fault that things got overheated in America because it happened everywhere else too he took the tough action he needed rapidly jacking up interest rates and now almost brought back inflation to the fed's 2% Target right now there's one thing that rankles me about all of this though no matter what happens there are plenty of traders who love to play this ridiculous guessing game about the fed's next move you cannot pay attention to these shorttime blow hearts for example at this moment they're frantically trying to figure out if this morning's job numbers will keep the FED on hold not eager to cut rates anytime soon which is the prevailing wisdom the prevailing wisdom people is wrong I don't want you to get caught up in this ridiculous sideshow right now good news about the economy is good news for the stock market because the FED doesn't need to do anything pal is winning the war against inflation and that's all that matters as long as Pal's winning meaning the economy is still creating jobs relatively low wage inflation he's fulfilling his mandate he doesn't need to cut rates he doesn't need to raise rates that neutral position is enough to justify sticking with our stocks here how about these individual stocks now on Monday Oracle reports uh after the close now normally this wouldn't be all that controversial it's a solid software business that trades at a reasonably low price dur bable and almost never misses it its earnings but last time Oracle disappointed and the stock started a sickening plunge from 126 to $100 a real tug-of war ens sued here between those who think that the company massively overpaid when it bought Cerner and kind of second tier electronic records company for $28 billion just two years ago and a second group of Voters who think that this Oracle is going to leverage this huge data center group into a generative artificial intelligence Powerhouse in the end the day the company reported the naysayers won but ever since then the whole Market bottom in late October the stocks been working its way higher because wall Street's Fallen back in love with AI including their AI now we've taken a position in the stock for my charal trust and we think that the AI Bulls this time will be proven right especially because legendary founder Larry ellon means very involved in the gend of AI transition last Thursday last Thursday I got a call was in the lighting round about carrier and I said I thought it was a darn good company but people are worried about its German heat pump acquisition a big acquisition 12 B I have faith that CEO Dave gitlin can work it all out especially now that he sold a security division to honey this morning for about5 billion but I also said you might want to take a cleaner story a similar business training Technologies TT the other major climate control trolls play though it's these guys John get trolls which reports on Tuesday I've avoided this one maybe even like the plague because it doesn't have any growth that said the stocks down more than 12% for the year and it's much much cheaper than carrier or train I don't know I'm going to take a look at it Wednesday as I mentioned of course is the Fed day then after the close we hear from one of my favorite companies Adobe which is on a mission to make G of AI work for everybody democratization not just for the big Enterprises CEO shant Orion has consistently delivered amazing returns I don't think that's going to change I think it' be the same although there's often a battle among Traders the moment the numbers come out some of that's because there are so many artificially unintelligent headlines that immediately cause computer-driven trading to take place and stock goes up or down even though you can't make a serious judgment about the company because you haven't even listed the conference call this time though this time there may be more to the company than the quarter see more than a year ago Doby decided to buy a design platform company called figma there would be a terrific albe it expensive fit under its roof now I actually think the Fig deal is worth A2 billion price tag because its tools are so beloved oh but the antitrust Regulators both here in Europe they can't resist they seem to be digging their heels against the deal arguing that adobe should be competing against f figma for the good of the marketplace but we may learn whether Adobe walks away could it happen maybe how about Thursday oh yeah two best of breed operators Costco and lonard now Costco's quarters are actually pretty anti-climatic you see they report monthly numbers too I tend to listen more to what they have to say about demand and inflation in the economy we own Costco for the trust and while I'm aware that it could go down the Stock's been a rocket on any given quarter I don't think it's worth it trading in and out and in now stock just doesn't Dodge and er in C don't worry about IR in a couple of months here now I much rather give them the benefit of the doubt because they deserve it when I went to Amazon earlier in the week I was conscious that Seattle house is not one but two companies that I quick quite willingly pay more for Amazon with Prime and Costa with my club membership oh and neither of them has a problem with shrinkage you can't steal from an online company and Costco is a club where you need to pay to join what kind of thief pays a membership fee when they could just steal from practically anywhere else for free last night I told you about how Toll Brothers is doing incredibly well but while I was praising them you know what I did I realized I might be giving another home build a short shrift I'm talking about lenar these guys have been building High Quality Homes and making the shareholders fortunes for ages I expect lenar to do maybe even better this time the stocks run it had another leg up after hlls blow out but if the FED takes a SW of line on it fight against inflation on Wednesday then maybe lenar on Thursday could have another big leg up hey finally on Friday we get results from dord uh now there are a few companies that have a better hand on what people are doing with their discretionary dollars than the these guys we keep hearing from retailers and restaurant chains one after another that the consumer wants value and D's Olive Garden sure offers that plus they get very granular in their conference call so you can learn a lot about the price of Labor food construction all sorts of inputs rolls you know C you can take them home you just have to file away as for the stock the going I don't know the cross Curren right now have gotten very tough after that dust up with the American Express talking about a more cautious consumer in the month of October and then that stock took a real hit so when it comes to Darden I got an idea let's put the conference call on mute and just listen here's the bottom line you need to remember that we're in one of those moments where where If the Fed doesn't even get the message out perfectly the actual headlines today box them into continuing their Holdem strategy and that that my friends is just fine for the Bulls I feel like taking some calls you know that I S we go to Tom in Massachusetts Tom booah Jim boyah Tom Jim thank you for all you do for us home game is you're the best oh man are you kind you just started my weekend well how can I help you all right Jim I'm calling about a company that provides an essential service this company has 16 consecutive quarters of year-over-year growth exceeding 40% and now with interest rates falling again this should spur more lending activity which will provide a catalyst for their business Jim my company is FICO Fair your company is fantastic I should be recommending I probably should own it for the trust but you know what it is expensive at all times but I think you've got to beat on I like your thinking about FICO all right please don't fall for that parlor game or trying to predict when the feds going to cut rates or not right now pal is winning the war against inflation while the economy is still creating good jobs which is a recipe to keep let's say him on hold and stocks going higher man money t earlier this week I had a chance to sit down with Amazon CPO Andy jasse in a rare and exclusive interview so don't miss an oncore presentation of my time with the man behind the company that is changing the world then while out west I got a chance to really experience the future of AI and no it wasn't in silon Valley I'm recapping my trip to Seattle sharing the very important take ways from being on the ground with some of the biggest Minds in artificial intelligence and of course all your calls rapid fire in
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