저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 부채한도 교착이 장기화되면 유동성이 더 줄어 시장에 부담이 될 수 있다는 경고가 핵심이다. [부채한도와 유동성] - 부채한도 교착으로 자본시장이 얼어붙고 유동성이 급격히 줄 수 있다. - 유동성은 이미 최근 18개월간 축소되어 왔으므로 상황이 더 나빠질 수 있다. [시장 전망 및 금리] - 향후 8주가 중요하며, 자본 배분자들이 금리·인플레이션 경로에 불확실성을 느끼는 것이 위험 요인이다. - 연방기금금리 인상은 시장이 고평가되어 있다는 신호일 수 있다. - 금리는 상당 기간 높게 유지될 가능성이 크다고 봤다. [정부 지출과 재정] - 신용평가사 등급 발표는 신뢰하기 어렵다고 주장했다. - 정부 지출의 약 절반이 낭비되며, 지출 감축보다 세수 축소가 더 효과적이라고 주장했다. - 부채를 장기 채권으로 차환하고 인플레이션으로 실질 부담을 줄이는 방안을 제시했다. [기업 실적] - 기업이 보고하는 이익과 실제 현금흐름 사이에 큰 괴리가 있다고 지적했다. [출연자 전망] - 시장이 일시적 장애물인지 경기침체의 초기 단계인지 불확실하다고 보았다. - 개별 종목·자산에 대한 구체적 가격 방향 예측은 없었다.
다듬은 글
the problem with that is that that probably really does tank the economy in the way that it creates enough uncertainty where Capital markets freeze up and liquidity just absolutely goes away and again liquidity has been shrinking for the last 18 months anyways so it get even worse in a recent episode of the all-in podcast John math engages in a discussion about the present market conditions and the growing concerns surrounding the anticipated developments in 2023 as the market prepares itself for potential shifts the prevailing sentiment is that the upcoming eight weeks will carry significant importance the recently passed Bill suspending the nation's debt until 2025 adds to the gravity of the situation John math highlights the criticality of capital allocators being uncertain about the trajectory of interest rates and inflation as such uncertainty can lead to a complete shutdown which would have detrimental effects on the economy moreover he predicts that an increase in the FED funds rate could indicate that the market is currently overvalued tune in to the latest interview with shamath as he provides his Market Outlook and sheds light on what we can anticipate in the upcoming months August 5th 2011 the SMP downgraded the United States from AAA to double A plus you know what happened absolutely nothing I think that these third-party credit rating agencies are not particularly that accurate and sophisticated they don't know anything that you don't know they're not getting access to Moody's gave sdbn a rating the week before it went into receivership this is my exact point well done this is my exact point none of these companies know what they're doing these companies are in the business of putting a letter on a document and then selling access to that document so if you're going to trust these guys to know what they're saying either right or wrong independent of what side you are Outsourcing your decision making to the wrong body so whether it's s p fit or Moody's I would tell you to ignore it and come to your own conclusion I think that this budget ceiling thing is happening now every couple of years so under under the 14th Amendment the president of the United States has in their discretion the ability to make sure that the United States can pay their debts and that wasn't necessarily thought of as a way to work around the debt ceiling impasse but because Congress refuses to pass any structural laws that allow the budget to ebb and flow with tax receipts we get in caught in this situation again roughly every handful of years so what Biden could do is he could say the 14th amendment gives me the right I'm going to pass a budget via executive order from a game theory perspective what that does is it forces Republicans to sue Biden take him to the Supreme Court and say this is unconstitutional the problem with that is that that probably really does tank the economy in the way that it creates enough uncertainty where Capital markets freeze up and liquidity just absolutely goes away and again liquidity has been shrinking for the last 18 months anyways so it'd get even worse so I think the brinksmanship right now between McCarthy and Biden is basically that Veiled Threat if Biden effectively isn't going to get something done I think he's going to test the 14th Amendment now if the 14th Amendment turns out to be a reasonable way in order to pass a budget the good news is not just for Biden but for any future president including Republican presidents will not have to be held hostage by Congress they will in the 11th Hour be able to pass a budget that works the implications of that though is that now you will not get consensus and whatever is happening in that moment you'll see more of so if you have a spending president they'll just continue to spend and if you have an austerity president they'll continue to cut and that'll have implications on either side I think it's too late to evoke the 14th Amendment they're going to have to raise the debt ceiling that being said I think they're going to be able to Reuters had a report this morning that they're only 70 72 billion apart now in their positions which is a relatively small amount so my guess is they're gonna they're gonna work this out now what should the fate of the dot limit be moving forward I mean we spend the money and then argue about whether we're going to pay the credit card bill I just think that you guys don't psychologically understand how to get what you want I think the best way to get what you want which I would want too which is a healthy economy where there's accountability for spending is to not look at expenses and all of this talk is always about expenses but to look at revenue and limit Revenue more drastically and I think the best way to limit Revenue dramatically at the federal and state level is to just minimize taxation as much as possible and I think that is something that Democrats and Republicans have a hard time fighting nobody wants to raise their hand and say I want new taxes nobody says that right and I think that if you attach that to some sort of spending guidelines like what David says with a sensible foreign policy you just end up spending a lot less you want to fight a foreign war okay great well you know what it's part of the existing budget let's go figure out why we want to do it we want to have more accountability and defense spending okay well look the defense budget is a half of what it used to be because we just have half the revenue if you're a homeowner and you got a mortgage in the 80s you were paying 12 14 15 16 if when rates kept going down you or the people around you didn't have the common sense to refinance that that was negligence similarly we're in a position today to Reef Finance our debt wall and push out these maturities past 100 plus years we are the only country that has a viable stable economy that looks like it can still continue to thrive at scale take advantage of that you lose Nothing by giving us the optionality generating some Hundred Year debt refinancing a bunch of this short-term stuff and then second inflation helps us and it helps us because it allows us to inflate the value of these dollars that allows us to pay off our short-term maturities so these are two practical simple things that are uncontroversial that should happen today and then separately I think you need to look at minimizing revenue and then you can cut expenses but if you flip them around I'm just telling you it's not like I want any of this to happen but I'm telling you nothing will change and you guys will still be crying wolf in five years it'll still be the same it'll just be a different debt to GDP number that gives you anxiety I think what you're saying is inaccurate this is my point I think it's important to get the facts right what you are saying is not true they do do an accounting that accounting sucks it shows that there's tons of waste nothing changes so now what do you want to do David is the real question what do you want to do knowing that we shouldn't spend on things that don't have a positive return this is my point that's why we're now in this very difficult situation that's not happening now what would you like to do well the reason it doesn't happen is because the way that politics decides things has nothing to do with the merits of it it has to do with special interests debating that I agree I'm just saying a lot of you guys want to do now just reality for a second because that's what you guys want our education system is like fundamentally betrayed the country because we just keep teaching people that somehow the government's going to solve all these problems when really it's just a product of special interest lobbying for things and that's why we perpetuate these programs that don't work I think the best way to think about government spending is that in every dollar there's probably 15 or 20 cents that actually does some good there's probably 15 to 20 cents that's like on the margins break even and then the rest of it which is half of it is wasted child math emphasizes that taxpayers bear the ultimate responsibility for the escalating spending that is currently unfolding he holds the belief that interest rates will undoubtedly rise and remain elevated for an extended period the market is still uncertain about whether this represents a temporary obstacle or the initial stages of a recession additionally cha math draws attention to the disparity between cash flow and earnings reported by companies suggesting a significant Gap exists between reported earnings and actual funds in their bank accounts this observation implies that things may not be as they appear in the broader economic landscape what are your thoughts on kamatha's economic outlook for this year furthermore how will the recent passage of the debt ceiling Bill impact the stock cryptocurrency and housing markets in 2023 share your opin
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