저자: EverythingMoney진행자Mo/Moe및주발언자 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 액티비전 블리자드는 MS 인수 불확실성 속에서 차익거래(머저 아비트라지) 기회가 있으나, 발언자 본인은 주가 적정가를 약 21~29달러로 보고 현재가 74.5달러는 비싸다고 판단해 보유하지 않는다. 인수 진행 상황: 인수 규모는 약 690억 달러(주당 95달러 현금 인수)로 언급되며, 2022년 12월 초 기준 미국 FTC의 소송 가능성이 보도됐고, EU 양보안 제시 가능성도 거론됐다. 클로징은 6월로 전망됐다. 차익거래 논리: 현재가 약 74.5달러 대비 인수가 95달러로 약 20% 프리미엄이며, 거래 성사 시 수개월 내 약 20~30% 수익 가능. 다만 규제 불발 시 손실 리스크가 크다고 언급. 과거 사례: 일론 머스크의 트위터 인수 때 주가가 인수가 근처까지 올랐다가 인수 불확실성 시 하락한 사례를 들어 리스크를 강조. 기업 펀더멘털: 최근 5년 매출은 약 2억 달러 증가에 그쳤으나 영업이익·현금흐름은 크게 증가(매출원가 약 30% 감소가 주요 요인). ROIC는 낮지만 기준치 충족, 부채는 약 2년치 잉여현금흐름으로 상환 가능. 성장 전망: 애널리스트 추정상 향후 5년 EPS 성장은 연 5~7% 수준으로 고성장주는 아님. 다만 차기 GTA6(2024년 출시 언급) 등 히트작 가능성을 상단 시나리오로 반영. 밸류에이션: 10년 DCF 분석 도구로 발언자는 적정가 21~29달러(중간값), 발언자 Mo는 약 24~32달러 범위로 추정. 두 사람 모두 현재가 74.5달러는 과대평가로 판단. 발언자 본인 주식 보유 없음. 리스크: 규제 당국 소송·EU 조건 등 인수 불발 가능성, 높은 PER·FCF 배수, 과거 CEO 관련 논란으로 인한 주가 하락 이력. 출연자 전망: 주 발언자는 인수 성사를 바라지만 현재 가격에서는 매수에 부정적. 사회자 Mo는 게임 콘텐츠 기대감을 언급하나 밸류에이션에는 보수적.
다듬은 글
all right guys the Activision Microsoft merger is still in limbo Warren Buffett has a bet he has bought Activision shares betting that Microsoft will be able to buy them he is he is purely said listen I don't know if it's gonna go through or not however Microsoft's got a lot of money and they want this company and it's a cash deal but it has to pass the regulatory issues Mo what happened in the last few weeks last few weeks actually last few days having to do with EU yeah this was the day before this was the day before Thanksgiving the Politico reported that the FTC Federal Trade Commission is likely to follow a lawsuit in order to block the block the purchase of Microsoft going after uh Activision wow yeah so political Source try to make it clear that the lawsuit wasn't a foregone conclusion the member of the FTC hadn't yet taken formal action towards that and then I've seen a lot of whisperings out there Microsoft likely to offer EU concessions soon in the deal so there's a lot of this is the EU side now I I thought that the United States side was kind of clear and then that political story came out and which by the way it's still a back and forth so guys we have until we're gonna figure this out and I think June is the closing I don't remember what's the price they're purchasing at 59 billion yeah but what's the per share price 95 on the nose I believe is it really that much so Activision so if it's 69 billion dollars the company is currently at 58 yeah so that's you know quite the premium to today yeah almost a 20 premium today which adds up correctly so guys what is an Arbitrage plan Arbitrage play and this is what's important that I know that we're gonna use a lot of terms and there's a lot of terms used out there in the media that are confusing that's why I encourage you subscribe to the channel we do two three videos a day we have thousands of videos out there we try to explain things as simple as possible and Arbitrage play is there's an event that's going to occur in the future like Activision being bought out for 70 billion dollars to call it 90 a share I don't know the exact number and you can buy it now for 75.
now a lot of times when when these deals are offered if everybody thinks it's going to be easy the price goes right up to where it was but if you remember look at the Twitter deal with Elon right Elon was buying it for like 53.52.54 per share it's skyrocketed then when everybody thought he'd bailed it fell and then he ended up buying it anyhow yeah and it's 95 a year okay this is the whole point of an Arbitrage play do you think it's going to happen or not if you're like Warren Buffett and think Microsoft's going to get this company then you buy the company all day why because you can buy it for 74 today you'll get 20 in profit by June that's a that's almost a 30 return for a few months but the reason there's so much meat on the bonus it's a big question these these companies these countries and groups can really stop these plans from happening now what's the benefit to Microsoft devoniac division Mo well first off mo why are you excited for this why are you excited for Activision I don't care if this deal goes through something amazing happened that made this worth 69 billion dollars we found out in the documents that came out that in 2024 Grand Theft Auto 6 will be coming out I never played again in my entire life it's the greatest game ever invented yeah I'm not even a gamer it's awesome are you gonna buy a PS5 just for that if I have to that's what I did for PS4 I literally bought a PS4 to play Grand Theft Auto 5.
played it for like three hours and haven't played it since well then how could it be the best game ever if you only played of testing things you know that all right most rich so when it comes to this the question you have to ask yourself is in an Ideal World do I want to own Activision Blizzard even if Microsoft doesn't buy them at this price because in Ideal World you're like hey you know what I want Activision at 75 bucks anyhow because they make great games but the question is do you really want it this price right so the Capri prior to the deal I remember remember all of those things that were going on with their sexual allegations of their CEO and what yes and the price fell to what was it like 50.
by the way wasn't the CEO being accused of it I don't think I think it was he was just turning his head again okay okay and by the way their CEO played a part in the movie Moneyball he played the owner of the Oakland Athletics uh in Moneyball the movie so I remember when this was hovering around that 50 60 area and I was like oh this is getting very interesting as far as pricing goes so I'm excited to see what price we put on this today I haven't done it yet and it hit a low in in February of 20 2019 of 41 dollars a share wow where did it go for covid so covet it went to 50 somewhere around 52 bucks okay it's low so let's go look at the eight pillars on Activision Blizzard so a couple things very expensive PE ratio and price of free cash flow so you might be wondering why is Microsoft buying such an expensive company well they probably have some synergies Microsoft has a billion programmers can they merge it with their company can they eliminate a lot of costs a lot of overhead costs Etc that drive up this profit margin from 22.8 percent to 30 I don't know I'm just I'm just being I'm just randomly saying that but if they can get an extra eight percent that's a 33 increase on their profit margin and now they theoretically could say if you want to play Grand Theft Auto or any of these other games Activision makes Call of Duty especially Call of Duty you got to buy an Xbox you can't they haven't said they're gonna do that I think if they said that that would kill the deal yeah right so they should just stay quiet on that front which I think they've done now it's interesting remember Sony went out and bought tried to buy what was that gaming company that they tried to buy that was kind of in response to them I don't remember what it was but they did it no I'm kidding I could look it up for us yeah look it up so they've issued a couple of shares which I'm okay with because considering how expensive their stock price has been relative to the value but the other things reasonable debt they can pay off their debt with two years of free cash flow a decent roic I'm actually surprised with how low this return on invested capital is for a software business so this isn't a great roic but it's not awful it's it fits hits our threshold which is fine increase in Revenue increase in net income increase in cash flow now one of the things I want to point out the revenue is only up 200 million over the last five years but their profits up a billion one and their cash flows up 700 million bucks that leads to a question what happened there that Revenue can only be up so little but profit can be up a ton so Revenue okay 7.16 577 to 1.67 billion other income expenses are about the same oh yeah maybe just more efficiency gross profit yeah gross profit got better their gross profit really got a lot better look at this their cost of goods sold went from 2.5 billion to 1.73 billion on pretty much the same Revenue that's a 30 decrease almost is that 30 about 30 decrease in their cost of goods sold and that drives right to the bottom line and that's helped out a ton all right cash flow same thing it's gonna be the exact same thing now let's go look at the analyst estimates what are the analysts things the company's going to do if they stayed independent right I mean it's almost it's two and a half times EPS growth Big Time Revenue Big Time EPS growth numbers Revenue wise all right not huge not bad all right so it's about a 25 28 increase 30 increase in the next five years all right 30 increase next five years five six percent growth a year defined by us whatever six seven percent the point is it's not a huge grower no it's not hopefully it's a shower ah by the way that would not have been as good had you not said huh right afterwards all right so let's go look at our stock analyzer tool and remember guys the stock analyzer tool is the most popular part of our software that our community members pay for we look at the data 60 of our page views our stock analyzer tool because it allows somebody to make assumptions about the future to determine what price to pay for the stock today okay I think we'd all agree that Activision Blizzard's gonna be around for a long time if Microsoft doesn't buy them yeah they make great quality games so I'm putting a 10-year analysis here now Moe and I are going to separately make our assumptions on Revenue growth profit margin free cash flow margin PE price of free cash flow and finally our desired return because our goal here is to say hey Ideal World let's say hypothetically the company was selling for 30 bucks a share and Microsoft want to buy it for 95.
if they're selling for 30 bucks right now I'd probably buy them go and listen it's a 10pe if they don't buy it I still get a great company to low price if they do buy it but at some point in between 30 and 95 it doesn't make sense anymore right and you should assign some value to the deal happening so Mo let's go ahead and do this through my Revenue growth first I make low assumptions on the low side middle assumptions being about where I think it should be at high assumptions being hey they kill it uh so profit margin was pretty consistent oh free cash flow is significantly higher than profit margin Mo do you see that yeah okay PE okay and they do have a good brand my desired return all right let me know when you're done Mo because I've made my inputs here okay most still several lines behind me all right yeah because I I did the profit like four times did you I just kept toying with it in my head I'm like I don't know what to do here all right well that's good I went high and then I went low and then I went back to LA okay all right let's do it all right so here are my Mo what's your Revenue assumptions one three and five okay I did two five and eight okay now the reason I did two five and eight is because I thought on the high side let's say they find another Banger of a of a video game hey is there a chance they do absolutely they find another series like Call of Duty they do Call of Duty Call of Duty that's a big thing and game not Game of Thrones Grand Theft Auto yeah and they're able to hit another home run there all right profit margin what'd you do 19 21 and 23.
okay I did 20 21 and a half and 23. because I did 20 thinking to myself it's still lower than a 10-year number yeah but I don't think Moses bad I'm like okay it's probably better than mine free cash flow 27 29 31 okay 26 28 30. okay so we're hover you see what's going on here guys we're making assumptions and everyone in our community the thousands of people they always share this screen for exactly that reason because they ask people are my assumptions reasonable now PE and price of free cash flow I did 13 15 17 for both of them so I did 1460 18 and mo we probably should have signed a different metric because exactly because of how big they're but listen it's all fine for right now what was your day return 12 and a half 15 17 and a half you know it's funny I wanted to put that in there I bet 12 14 16 only because of how low that thing was yeah all right so hit the analyze button the Stock's currently at 74.50 Mo what are your prices whoa yeah big time difference low end 18 to 20 26 high end 24 to 32 and my middle ground's about 21 to 29.
I'm in the low part of like low to mid 20s high side of 40. hey yeah guys this is expensive I was expecting this stock price to be somewhere like 45 bucks so honestly so to me my personal opinion for me I am not the roic isn't high enough to assign a bigger multiple to me yes is there a chance the deal goes through sure but I look at this 45 and say okay whenever you want to pay 50 for it because I have a chance of a deal going through sure but guess what who disagrees with me Warren Buffett so guys analyze it yourself but here's the key just because Warren Buffett did it doesn't mean we're not going to do it I own zero Activision shares I hope the deal goes through for Microsoft purposes but I own zero shares of it remember watch these videos this will make a lot more sense as you repeat these videos over and over don't forget to subscribe to the channel thanks guys foreign
Comments 0