저자: 레이달리오 · 외국인
요약 보기
달리오는 과거 미국 재정·사회적 분열의 역사적 패턴을 강조하며, 재정 위기·내부 갈등·외부 갈등이 결합하면 위험하다고 본다. 기후 변화 정책과 관련해서는 청정에너지, 사회복지, 국방 등 전반적인 비용이 매우 크며, 재정 적자를 세금이나 화폐 발행으로 메워야 한다고 지적한다. 세금 인상에 대해서는 돈을 어떻게 생산적으로 쓰느냐가 핵심이라고 말한다. 그는 교육과 인프라 투자가 생산성과 경쟁력을 높인다고 강조하며, 돈 자체보다 생산성이 부(富)의 본질이라고 주장한다. 미국의 역사적 패턴을 보면 현재가 제국의 쇠퇴 국면과 유사하다는 우려를 표하지만, 운명이 정해져 있지는 않다고 말한다. 걱정이 행동을 이끌어 문제를 피하게 할 수 있다는 입장이다. 정치 양극화에 대해서는 극단주의 세력(우파 약 25~30%, 좌파 약 15%)이 정당을 주도하면서 중도가 떠나고 있다고 진단한다. 중도 지도자가 등장해 국가를 통합할 가능성에 대해서는 '가능하지만 확률은 높지 않다'고 답한다. 투자 종목이나 가격에 대한 구체적 예측은 언급되지 않았다. 세계 경제는 기술 발전(AI, 백신 등)으로 과거보다 풍요로워졌지만, 협력하지 않으면 위험이 커진다는 것이 전반적인 결론이다.
다듬은 글
all right ray dolly likes to say he is not a politician doesn't want to be a politician even though over the years a lot of people have asked him to run for office not only for his clarity and his smarts but the fact that he's very very good at making money even at a time when it's almost impossible to make money or so it would seem this crazy year for the markets keep in mind as bridgewater associates and the flagship fund at that hedge fund giant is up 32 percent for the first half of the year how is that possible well that's another story for another time we'll be online exploring that on our fox business website in the meantime uh to dalio's view on the push for climate change he's all in on that he's just not quite sure this latest attempt is the answer take a look i'm just a mechanic i'm not an ideal ideological i know you're not but you do when i look at what i'm describing here is the fact that there is um a limited amount of time and no an enormous cost the technologies have not been developed the the um not investing in uh oil development or or fossil fuels and so on creates a supply demand a lot has to be accomplished in order to create a change and i'm speaking scientifically you know the administration's approaches don't look at fossil fuels so you find that but i'm saying that's as you do that that's costly i'm just saying the bill how much money does each one i unders i'm just telling you what the costs are right okay what your preferences are are for a society as a whole to decide on its particular preferences but there is a i'm saying we're going to face a lot of cost we're going to the cost of a clean energy attempt is very costly the cost of social programs is very costly the cost of building the defense adequately is very costly the cost of um inefficiencies which come from the fact that there's independence and self-sufficiencies in all of these things is very costly okay and well the way it works is it's simple you will either you'll run a deficit and you will either tax it from people or you will print it because you got you have the money you have to get the money and taxing it is very difficult i'm just speaking mechanics because you're taking it away from somebody and nobody wants to have it taken but the administration wants to take it from the very wealthy i understand what i'm just saying i know that but what do you think of that again i'm a mechanic right um but you're a very wealthy mechanic yes i believe that people like us um if we're not um investing in the education of our children and we let the infrastructure go down and we continue to print money and we're living in a way which is a you know wasteful not productive kind of way we're going to pay a terrible cost for that so as far as i'm concerned the most important thing is are we investing in things that will make us productive and competitive i don't you can't give away money you can only invest and and that those are in those things education and we have money you're going to have to get it one place for another you're going to tax me yes tax me right tax me and so on but make it productive what do your fellow wall streeters say when you say something like that um well i i think most people would say um that it really depends how it's spent yeah if it's they don't understand a lot of people in private understand but is it going to be spent productively got it because you have to produce productivity you if you don't produce productivity you you can't eat money you can produce money but you can't eat money money isn't wealth what is wealth is productivity money let me step back if i can you talk about three big themes and and we're in a world right now where two sides aren't talking to their extreme differences debt is piling up here they're everywhere how do you look at the world right now what are the big things you look at that they're watching and looking at empires that have come and gone and what do you see i've seen this play out like watching a movie happen over and over again and there are three classic big things there's the financial are you on the sand financial footing spending more than you're earning um with do you have the internal conflict um is there the differences we're talking about the wealth difference is that or is it a country of equal opportunity you know i i was lucky i grew up in a country of equal opportunity um and that's historically where does the talent come from without bias and let everybody have that talent do you have that or do you have the conflict when you have the two combined it's a combustible combination because when you have a financial challenge and at the same time like a bad stagflation and at the same time you have a lot of conflict with gif differences you see the dynamic that's at odds you see the polarity you see it in the french revolution the russian revolution chinese revolution cuban revolution and so on that you see that dynamic that worries me and if you are not strong relative to the outside opponents outside competitors that is a dangerous situation and so i see those three things the financial the internal conflict and the external conflict as risky things and yet we have the power let me tell you then the goods part of this please we are um more inventive than we have ever been we have more together than we've ever think world is richer the world is more inventive technologies artificial intelligence the ability to come up with um vaccines and so on if you can work well together to deal with this together and you avoid the conflict but and then you're responsible probably like your parents raised you are you going to earn more than yours right then you spend are you going to save the basics of those things are going to be well educated if you do those things you will have the world can have a better than ever life but we do have these risks the financial risk the internal conflict and the external conflict risk does it make you worry though about the world like i by the end of your book and looking at the sweeping history you pointed out the one big thing i worried about is we're repeating some bad history here we're in that phase that makes me think we're at the end of the run the sort of like the british empire but nothing's predestined i know i have no but it does seem to be a pain i have a principle if you worry you don't have to worry and if you don't worry you need to worry because if you worry if i can help people think is this logical um should we worry about it then the worrying about us will let us make sure that those things don't happen can we work together as a country in a bipartisan way can we overcome that and we look at the consequences of not doing that can we handle our finances in a productive way of investing in things like education and infrastructure in a way that makes us stronger their investments can we not go to war externally can we do those things because if we really know what those are like and what the worry is like that and we'll avoid those things we will have a better future but we sometimes get lucky right a good leader comes along when you least expect it winston churchill right in our country abraham lincoln you could argue you know you were nobody growing up you know a caddie and so you became a multi-billionaire of course with you know big dream and all but we do seem to find the right people at the time we most need it i think can we find that now here because there's doubts here looking at the list of presidents i don't say i don't someone out there you see um i think that i think that there's a possibility of it do you see anyone who gets let me explain what i mean by the possibility um and no i don't but but i don't you know i'm no no but i'm not that doesn't mean i understand okay let the question is can our population elect a president of the united states a president that represents the majority of people and and so let's look at that analytically um depending on how you define extremism um 25 or 30 percent of the population is fairly extreme of the right and 15 percent or so is fairly extreme of the left they're dominant they they're very forceful within their parties we see that um the in the parties we're getting a tendency for more extremism right moderates are leaving and um that what we each side wants is fighters for them that will win at all cost so that dynamic is producing that can we get a strong leader of the middle who will bring the country together i'll ask you that question i don't have any unique insight we could just reverse the question okay but i'm saying whatever it is would have to win by a landslide right the middle the what the constitutes the middle let's take those percentages right so that means that you know um 40 of the population would be fairly extreme 60 percent of the population is still relatively moderate and so as we think that but there's no platform for the middle there's no candidate in the middle in a sense and so i think that analytically that's our question can you get first do we agree and we need somebody to bring our country together and to be strong second that we are together and then do the right things and those will be difficult things people that won't like those things can we have somebody in the middle do that now you're asking me the probability i think you can assess the probability as well as i can but that's what the mechanics are like right so what would you say it's probable it's not probable but it's possible i hope we do brad elliot thank you very much very good seeing you good good luck with this money thing see how it works out okay thank you again thank you
Comments 0