저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
연준 금리인상 우려와 CLARITY Act 교착에도 불구하고 시장 공포는 바닥 신호이며, 비트코인은 10만달러 이상으로 간다는 낙관론. 8월 ETF 유입 35억달러, 기관 스테이블코인 프로젝트 등을 근거로 제시. 발언자 자신이 비트코인 장기 보유를 강조하며 투자 조언 성격의 주장이 많음.
다듬은 글
Here's something that has never been true during this entire cycle. For years, every crypto scare has boiled down to the same argument. How many times will the Fed cut rates and how quickly? This issue has been turned upside down . For the first time, the fear prevailing in this market is the opposite: that the Fed is done with cuts and the next step could be a hike.
The first real threat of rate hikes that the crypto market has had to face in many years, and it does n't come in a vacuum. Washington has been arguing for over a year over the Clarity Act, which would provide the American crypto industry with rules of the game, but the fight has been stalled rather than resolved.
Therefore, the market is required to prepare for tighter monetary policy and the absence of regulatory protection at the same time. The market, which has already been through hell, is now hearing that the hardest part is yet to come. If you've been staring at the screen, wondering if this is the moment when everything will finally break, think about this for a second.
It is this feeling, this terror, exhaustion, the desire to just give up—this is the most reliable indicator that appears right before the bottom, not after, but before. Two people will explain to you why. The first is Dan Geld. He bought his first Bitcoin in 2012, led development at Kraken, and survived four full market cycles, including three instances where his fortune shrank by 85%.
He doesn't know what surrender feels like. He has experienced it three times, and believes that the low point of this cycle is already behind him. The second is Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat and chairman of one of the largest Ethereum treasury companies on the market. Tom spent 15 years on Wall Street before this, and his message is straightforward .
People who try to outsmart the Fed and the vote by waiting for the “ all clear” signal usually miss the entire market movement. So, in this video, we're going to look at three things. Why panic itself is a signal of reaching bottom. Why trying to trade during a week like this is the surest way to lose money.
And why are the world's largest institutions buying up assets based on this fear, while small investors are giving them away. Now let's begin. You know, it's always funny, because the darkest night is before dawn. I mean, a month ago people were panicking, saying this was the end of the industry, that Bitcoin had failed, institutions hadn't come, everything was dead, and now, a month later, we see that the bullish winds have returned.
So, this is a classic reflection of how Bitcoin cycles work. Fear and despair, complete apathy—that's what "bottom" means, and I think we've passed it. There was widespread apathy , saying, "This is the end." I'm leaving." Many people dropped everything. This is usually a good signal of reaching the bottom.
So, overall, considering this is my fourth cycle, I think we've hit rock bottom. The strong rebound is now explained by the actions of the Ministry of Finance, which is considering the possibility of buying back bonds. Or , excuse me, the Fed's actions to buy back bonds to lower, you know, the effective rate on bonds.
So when we see this, it means the world is saying: we don't believe that governments will be able to pay their debts, and so inflation is going to become an increasing problem. Of course, Bitcoin was specifically created for such a moment. That's why we jumped so much from 60,000 all the way here, to 81,000 today.
Yes. I don't think it will stop. I don't think it will immediately skyrocket to 100, but that's what Bitcoin was created for, and I think that's why the market is behaving the way we see it. Let's start with what real bottoming actually feels like, because it never feels like it does in the movies. No bell rings.
It's a feeling of exhaustion. People who bought at the peak sold. The loud voices have fallen silent, and everyone who remains simply stops paying attention. But beneath this indifference, the money hasn't actually disappeared. While the price of Bitcoin was at its lowest, August was the strongest month for inflows into the US spot Bitcoin ETF in the last 10 months— $3.5 billion.
And on September 3 alone, these funds received $731 million. The highest tide in a single day since January. The graph looked dead. But buying was as active as ever. A short message from our sponsor Kalshi. And a free $25 is waiting for you . With Kalshi prediction markets, you are not limited to just cryptocurrency prices.
You can trade on anything that is in the news, such as whether the Clarity Act will be passed. And if your prediction turns out to be correct , you will receive a payout. Honestly , it's more enjoyable than writing the right things in the comments for free. To get your $25, simply make your first $25 elsi.com/r/cryptonutshell.
So the real question is whether this stagnation is just a manifestation of fear or whether the market is truly breaking down. Dan Held has had to answer this question four times since 2012, and he has earned the right to his own opinion. Determining the bottom is the easiest part. Surviving the days immediately after it is where it shakes almost everyone, because the market's next trick is to make you think that holding on to assets is the stupidest thing to do.
You know, I think there will be a lot of questions for those who don't have exposure right now; There is, of course, a tactical issue here. My answer to anyone who doesn't have cryptocurrency right now or doesn't have enough of it: if you look at past crypto cycles, you could buy it 4 weeks or 1 week after the low.
Would you do this every day? The answer is: everyone should obviously buy 4 weeks before the minimum or 1 week after it. So, if the low was last week, you buy 1 week after the low. at least 4 weeks in advance . I mean, in both cases, think if someone tries to guess the bottom and do what I call buying the middle of the we have published statistics—and it has been running for over a decade—that crypto makes all its moves in 10 days.
And if you miss the top 10 days, you will actually have a negative return. So, how many wonderful days were there in 2026? Somewhere alone. So I believe there is a lot of growth potential for cryptocurrency by the end of the year. The plan that almost everyone has now sounds sensible. Wait for the Fed's decision, see if the vote for clarity survives, get through the panic, make sure the path is clear, and then go in.
This seems reasonable. But historically, it's also a way to miss all the market movement. Cryptocurrency does not distribute its profits evenly. The gains are concentrated in a few days, and those days almost always fall at a time when the news is still bad. Tom Lee has spent a lot of time on the mathematics of this phenomenon, and for those who take a wait-and-see approach, it's brutal.
See how it actually looks on the calendar. The best days for this asset don't wait for permission. They work precisely on days when most people were too cautious to take a position, and by the time the “ clean” signal becomes apparent, the move has already been factored into the price, causing a natural objection.
Sure, but if professionals are now as scared as retail investors, who is left to buy? The answer is in the latest reports, and it is the opposite of frightening. A quick pause before we get to that. If you want to push aside the fear and noise and understand what stage of the cycle we are really in , that is why I am writing Crypto Nutshell.
This is my free 5- minute daily newsletter. No nonsense , no panic, just important alert with us. I'm just sharing, you know, my point of view. And so, uh, you know, a lot of this is opinion, not fact, and not a fact that things are going to happen that way . But I spent my entire career on traditional Wall Street.
So, I worked at Kidder, Peabody, Salomon Brothers, which became Citigroup, and then J.P. Morgan for 15 years before founding Fundstrat. So I spent most of my adult life and professional career in the traditional field, working in and understanding large financial institutions . And I think it's really important to have that perspective, because the crypto industry is a quantum leap in what can be done for financial systems, you know?
But the fact that it is a better solution does not mean that the traditional financial system will accept it. I think this is extremely important for anyone who builds anything to understand. You can build something lightning fast that works better for futures settlement, but that doesn't mean Wall Street will accept it.
And if they don't accept it, at least today, it won't be a source of future opportunities. And financial institutions have huge regulatory constraints. They have obligations to their customers. They have completely different pain points. And there is also a huge layer of people involved in these systems who cannot be changed overnight with a snap of the fingers.
These are incredibly complex systems. And in fact, the larger a financial institution, the more likely it is to have a history of many acquisitions. In fact, many of these acquisitions mean that internal systems are not integrated and interconnected. So, this means that financial institutions are forced to move very slowly.
And when something eventually finds practical application, you can see rapid adoption. This is an incredibly slow process. This wo n't happen overnight. So, I think these institutions want to work with organizations that understand their requirements. And I think these new structures fully understand this, whether it's Ethereum Institutional, Eth Labs, or Eth Systems.
They understand this precisely because they have interacted with these companies for many years. But they also understand that a financial institution will only implement something if it is 10 times better than what they have today. Cryptoassets are definitely a tenfold improvement. But they need to see financial returns or profits that are 10 times greater right away.
See what the world's largest capitals have done over the past 2 weeks. While retail investors panicked over the rate decision, on September 1, 21 of the world's largest banks, including Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Fidelity, announced the joint development of a New Genius Act-compliant dollar stablecoin with the goal of launching in 2027.
This is the third banking project to create a stablecoin in 90 days . And that's not the million-dollar position in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF —a stake that grew by over 250% in a single quarter. None of these institutions acted simply because the Fed meeting looked favorable . They acted because they decided it was inevitable, and they are positioning themselves years ahead of the crowd.
Tom Lee spent 15 years in those very offices, and he knows exactly how such decisions are made and why, once the process is started, it never stops. But understanding that the tanker is turning won't help you at 2 a.m., when your portfolio is bleeding and your instincts are screaming, "Sell!" To do this, you need something that no bank statement can give you.
Did I understand Bitcoin perfectly when I entered it? No. But after the purchase, I quickly realized it, because that's all I was thinking about . And I knew a lot about the existing financial system. I studied finance during the 2008 crisis. And so, you know, when you go down this rabbit hole, you really have to understand everything.
And when you do that, you don't panic when the price drops. Yes. My faith is unwavering. You can check out all the evidence on Twitter. Yes. Starting from 2015. I started writing on Twitter sometime in 2014-2015 . Yes. But yes, you can check my records. You can ask Brock. Ask, "Hey, has Dan written anything bearish?" My faith is unwavering because I understand the point.
Yes. So, you hold a significant portion of your portfolio in long-term assets that you strongly believe in, and you manage your psychology through, say, covered call options, satisfying your urge to trade perpetual futures or short-term speculation—whatever it takes to stay on top of the asset; Be in the 1% who best understand the largest positions in your portfolio.
The reason most people sell on the "bottom" has almost nothing to do with price. And the fact is that they never really understood what they were holding . So the first serious fall seems like proof that they were wrong. Understanding is the main game, and the macroeconomic background confirms your position.
On September 9, the Treasury tripled the amount of long-term bond purchases to $6 billion per transaction, openly putting pressure on long-term yields to make government borrowing affordable. This is a government that publicly states that it will manage the debt by managing the money. If you understand that Bitcoin was created precisely as a way out of this game, a “ red” week stops looking like a threat and starts looking like a sell-off.
Dan Geld puts it as simply as possible, and that's the only reason he doesn't flinch. Such calmness is not a character trait that one is born with. Dan got it the hard way, going through the worst-case scenarios of it over and over again, emerging richer each time. I mean, on paper, my equity has fallen 85% three times.
Because I was 99% into Bitcoin. So I didn't sell, but it was, uh , not fun at all. Um, yeah, well, you know, two things. First: go back to your investment thesis. You should literally write it down before you buy anything. Yes. Has the new information changed my investment thesis? Well , for example, if the Bitcoin community decided to change the 21 million limit , it would be a pretty serious violation of the concept of rare digital gold.
M-hm. In that case, my initial investment thesis would be refuted. Therefore, I could make the decision to exit the position. M-hm. So if your initial thesis—and remember, you should write it down so that it is binding on you—if new information refutes it, you may want to reconsider owning the asset.
Well , and one more thing: it's more of a game against yourself . Of course. In the end, it's just you. It's you against yourself. So, you know, if the price has dropped that much, would you be able to hold out if it went to zero? But you had to go into the position knowing it was possible. Another important point is the position size.
Yes. When I got into Bitcoin in 2012—that's when I first bought Bitcoin. But when I started saving, I was in my early twenties. Mhm. So, for me, I didn't have much money. Yes. Um, that's why I regret not being 10 years older, because I would have had a lot more free money. However, it also meant that I had no obligations.
No family, no children, no mortgage. So if everything depreciated to zero and I was working, I would be fine. It would be unpleasant, but I would manage. Um, so you know, I think that's an important part about position sizing, and it's also important to know— and this is about exiting a position—what is life-changing money?
Yes. I know a guy, a very close friend of mine, he sold all his bitcoin for a thousand dollars apiece . This is his path. He was buying bitcoin for about ten dollars a piece. In 2020 ...oh, in 2013 the price went from ten to 1200 dollars. A hundredfold return. Wow. So, suddenly he had a million dollars.
He was in his early twenties at the time, and he thought, "This is just incredible ." A million bucks. And again, that was a long time ago, so today it would be about $1.5 million. So he's like, "You know what?" "I think he'll grow even bigger." And then the price dropped from 1200 all the way to 170.
Yes. This was at the bottom in 2015 . Then he promised himself: "As soon as the price reaches a thousand again, I will sell everything." And he did it. And he could have had 20 million, because he missed the increase from a thousand to twenty thousand. Twenty thousand. He never understood this asset.
A thousand dollars worth of Bitcoin is a tiny market capitalization. If you thought Bitcoin was digital gold, why sell anywhere near that level ? Yes. At a hundred thousand dollars per bitcoin, which is about one and a half trillion, bitcoin is starting to sparkle like digital gold. But it hasn't even become digital gold yet.
At ten or twenty trillion, Bitcoin will truly compete with gold as digital gold or an alternative to it. So he never understood that, and, you know, when you're thinking about exiting a position, you don't have to say, "I'll sell when it doubles." Why? Why sell when the price has doubled if you are buying a hugely undervalued asset with long-term potential?
You shouldn't focus on " double" or "triple". Don't think about it in those categories. Think about it: if my investment thesis comes true, how much will it cost? And what would then be the market capitalization or valuation of this asset? Yes. And then you can calculate: okay, if we get close to this, I want to sell a little , etc.
Or by then I'll be in my 30s , I'll want to buy a house, so it would be worth selling something because my wife is asking for a house. We have two children on the way. There are all kinds of life circumstances, but that's how I would think about it . It's one thing to say " hold on despite your fear.
" It's another thing to actually do it when your fortune evaporates in real time. Dan has been almost entirely invested in Bitcoin since his mid-20s, which means he didn't just sit by and watch three separate 85% declines. He survived them without selling assets. The discipline that allowed him to do this is not about showing off.
This is a thesis he wrote down in advance, and one clear rule about the only reason that should force him out of the game. And from a growth perspective, one number changes the perspective on the entire panic. Even at a six-figure price, the total value of Bitcoin is only a small fraction of the value of gold, an asset that many are preparing to sell out of fear.
He hasn't even finished his first job yet. When you combine Dan's experience with Tom's calculations, the situation begins to look very different. So, let's systematize everything. Bitcoin is trading at around $79,000, about 37% below the high of $126,080 set last October. The Fed may raise rates. The Clarity Act may stall in the Senate.
Market sentiment is also at a low. And each of these things is already known, already factored into the price, this is exactly what everyone is preparing for. This is not the peak of the market. This is a market that is moving from the hands of people who trade on news headlines to those who don't .
Tom Lee's calculations suggest that profits are concentrated in a few days that you can't afford to miss. And the fact that Wall Street's move into this asset only has one direction once it starts. Dan Geld's decade of experience says that the apathy you're feeling right now is a sign of a bottom, and those who simply refuse to be afraid of an asset that has barely begun its journey will win.
This does not mean at all that the near future will be cloudless. It could be pretty bad. And anyone who promises you otherwise is just trying to sell you something. But if you look at the situation globally, beyond the meetings and votes, you will see the same scenario that has rewarded the patient every time.
And if this analysis helps you stay calm, that's exactly what you'll receive in your mail every morning at Crypto Nutshell. Free, 5 minutes, no frills, just what's really important that day. . So .
Comments 0