저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 미국 증시는 연준 금리인상과 정책 실패로 장기 약세장에 들어가며, 금 관련주와 신흥국 저평가 주식으로 자금이 이동한다는 전망 [시장 전망] - 연준이 12월 금리를 인상하면 증시가 붕괴할 것이라고 주장 - 현재 약세장은 1987년처럼 빨리 끝나지 않고 1966~1982년처럼 16년간 신고가를 경신하지 못하는 장기 침체가 될 것이라고 전망 - 이 기간 중 생활비는 더 크게 오를 것이라고 예상 [정책 비판] - 트럼프와 파월 모두 책임이 있으며, 특히 그린스펀 시절부터 약세장마다 저금리로 주가를 되살리는 방식이 반복되어 문제가 시작됨 - 현재 정책은 더 이상 통하지 않을 것이라고 주장 [기업 실적 및 밸류에이션] - 실적 낙관론은 이미 주가에 반영되어 있으며, 실적 상당 부분은 감세 효과에서 나온 것이라고 지적 - 경기침체와 금리상승으로 부채 부담이 커져 실적이 급락할 수 있다고 봄 - 주가가 사상 최고치 부근이고 투자 심리가 과열되어 있어 시장이 고평가되었다고 판단 [채권·변동성] - 10년물 금리 상승은 시장의 공포를 반영한다고 해석 - 변동성 지수는 26~27 수준으로 역사적으로 보면 낮다고 언급(진행자 발언 중 TD Ameritrade 측 의견 포함) [TD Ameritrade 측 의견(Stephen Cortes 방향)] - 고객들은 실적이 양호하다고 보며, 하락 시 매수세가 강해지는 경향이 있었으나 최근 4개월간 매수와 매도가 비슷해짐 - 경기순환주, 유틸리티 등 방어주로 자금이 이동 중 - 급락을 낙관하지는 않지만 세상의 종말도 아니라는 중립적 입장 [출연자 투자 행동] - 현재 금 관련주가 저평가되어 매수 중이라고 밝힘 - 최근 여러 해외 가치주를 매수했으며 일부는 지난주 10~20% 상승 - 약세장 진입 시 모멘텀주에서 가치·방어주로, 그리고 미국 주식에서 신흥국 저평가 주식으로 대규모 이동이 있을 것이라고 전망 [조건·리스크] - 관세 등 무역 문제와 금리 인상이 주요 리스크 - 이익 감소 시 주가 급락 가능성 강조
다듬은 글
NOW IN DECEMBER. THAT WOULD BE THE FOURTH RATE HIKE THE FED HAS SAID IT WOULD GO FORWARD BUT AS WE JUST TEASED COMING INTO OUR FINAL COMMERCIAL BREAK THERE WERE TWO MYSTERY MAN WE SHOWED BEFORE WE TALK TO THE BREAK. LET US REVEAL THEIR FACES. PRESIDENT TRUMP OFTEN TAKES AIM AT THE FEDS TO ROME POWELL FOR THE MARKET'S RECENT DECLINE PETER SHIFT SAYS BOTH PARTIES WILL BE THE ONE TO BLAME WHEN THE RECESSION HE SAYS WE ARE ABOUT TO SEE TAKES FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2008 LOOK LIKE THE ROARING 20s BY COMPARISON.
HE IS HERE AND AUTHOR OF THE REAL CRASH HE JOINS US BUT IN THE SPIRIT OF FAIR AND BALANCED THE MAN IN CHARGE OF THE TRAINING GROUP AT TD AMERITRADE EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT STEPHEN CORTES OCTOBER VOLATILITIES AND ESPECIALLY WILL BE SEEN OUT IN NO WAY SIGNALS THE END OF THE WORLD. PETER, TO YOU FIRST.
WHY ARE YOU BLAMING BOTH PRESIDENT TRUMP AND JAY POWELL OF THE FED? I'M BLAMING BOTH CLINICAL PARTIES. THE REPUBLICANS WILL TAKE THE BLAME BECAUSE IT WILL BLOW UP ON THEIR WATCH BUT IF YOU WANT TO NAME NAMES GOT TO GO BACK TO ALAN GREENSPAN. HE'S WON THE ROAD THIS PLAYBOOK. EVERY TIME WE HAD A BEAR MARKET WHILE GREENSPAN WAS CHAIRMAN OF THE FEDS HE WOULD QUICKLY RESTART THE PARTY WITH CHEAP MONEY AND SO WE SET THIS PROCESS IN MOTION BUT IT WILL NOT WORK ANYMORE.
LIZ: WHY IS PRESIDENT TRUMP TO BLAME? WHY IS JAY POWELL TO BLAKE? THEY WILL GET BLAMED BECAUSE THEY ARE THE ALL DIE. THE PROBLEM STARTED LONG BEFORE TRUMP WAS ELECTED. HE CALLED THIS A BIG FAT, UGLY BUBBLE WHEN HE WAS RUNNING. LIZ: BUT NOW HE'S THE ONE ASKING FOR GRACE TO STAY LOW. ARE YOU SAYING THE FEDERAL RESERVE SHOULD NOT RAISE IN DECEMBER, PETER?
OR THEY THEIR CUT RATES? IT SHOULD RAISE RATES FOR THE MARKETS WILL COLLAPSE AS A RESULT. THEY HAVE NOT FIGURED THIS OUT BUT GIGANTIC - THIS BEAR MARKET IS NOT GOING TO END QUICKLY LIKE THE ONE IN 1987. THIS WILL BE A PROTRACTED BEAR LIKE THE ONE WE HAD FROM 1966 19661982, 16 YEARS WITHOUT A NEW HIGH IN MEANWHILE THE COST OF LIVING WENT UP DRAMATICALLY AND THE COST OF LIVING WILL RISE EVEN MORE DRAMATICALLY DURING THIS SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN LOOK, THERE'S NOTHING THAT CAN BE DONE TO STOP THIS BUT UNFORTUNATELY FOR AMERICA I THINK THE RHETORIC OF THE REPUBLICANS AND TRUMP TAX CUTS WILL GET BLAMED .
LIZ: WERE HEADING TO - WE ARE NOW HEADING TO MORE SESSION LOWS. NOW DOWN ABOUT 411-POINT STEVE, YOU HAVE THE BENEFIT OF THE TD AMERICAN TRADE AND YOU CAN CHECK IN ON THAT HERD AND SEE WHAT THEY ARE OR NOT DOING? MASSIVE $1.3 TRILLION AND HOW IS THE HERD BEHAVING AND ARE YOU WORRIED ABOUT IS PETER'S?
WHAT I WILL DO IS GIVE YOU A AFFECTION BECAUSE THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME. THE VALUE I BRING IS TELLING YOU WHAT ARE CLIENTS ARE DOING. LAST TIME I WAS ON, TWO WEEKS AGO, I TOLD YOU THERE QUITE CONTRARY AND AS A GROUP SO WHEN WE SEE SELLOFFS TYPICALLY WE SEE STRONGER BUYING AND WE NOTICED IN THE LAST FOUR MONTHS THAT THAT SENTIMENT HAS DONE BACK IN OTHER WORDS, THE BUYS AND SELLS ARE ALMOST EVENLY BALANCED AND WE ARE SEEING MORE ROTATION INTO WHAT WE WOULD CALL THE CYCLICALS, UTILITY, THINGS THEY THINK LOWER BETA STOCKS THAT WILL PROTECT THEM SHOULD THEY CONTINUE TO SEE THIS DOWN MOVE.
I WOULD SAY THEY ARE NOT OPTIMISTICALLY SAYING THIS WILL BOUNCE RIGHT BACK BUT THEY ARE ALSO NOT SAYING IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD. LIZ: CORPORATE EARNINGS FOR THE S&P WE SAW THEM UPGRADED FOR THE THIRD QUARTER THAT THEY LOOK TO BE UP ABOUT 25.2% AND WE GOT A LOT OF BIG NAMES COMING OUT AND IS THERE AT THE CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE NAMES COULD ENGENDER POSITIVE FEELINGS ABOUT AND FOR INVESTORS?
I KNOW YOU WERE BEARISH ON THE US BUT NOT ELSEWHERE. THERE IS A LOT OF OPTIMISM ABOUT EARNINGS. UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS PRICED INTO THE STOCKS. A LOT OF THE EARNINGS CAME FROM LOWER TAXES AND A THIRD OF IT BUT A LOT OF THESE EARNINGS WILL GO AWAY DURING THIS RECESSION AND ESPECIALLY AS INTEREST RATES KEEP RISING BECAUSE COMPANIES TOOK OUT A LOT OF DEBT DURING THE BOOM AND NOW HAVE TO SERVICE THE DEBT OR IN THE BUST AND THE REVENUES WILL GO DOWN SO EARNINGS COULD COLLAPSE VERY QUICKLY AND AS STOCKS GO ALONG WAY TO FAULT THE MARKET IS OVERVALUED AND I THINK THERE IS SO MUCH COMPLACENCY OUT THERE.
RECORD HIGHS, AND SENTIMENT IN CONSUMER INVESTMENT SENTIMENT AND SMALL BUSINESS SENTIMENT AND NO ONE EXPECTED THE RECESSION. BUT WHEN IT HITS, EVERYONE IS SURPRISED AND THIS TIME THEY WILL BE EVEN MORE SURPRISED AND I THINK IT WILL MAKE THE RECESSION THAT MUCH WORSE THAN IT STARTS AND HOW ILL-PREPARED PEOPLE ARE.
LIZ: I NEED TO POINT OUT SOMETHING THAT TEN YEAR YIELD. I'VE BEEN KEEPING MY EYE ON IT FOR THE LAST 35 MINUTES WHEN WE CAME INTO THE SHOW WE WERE AT 3.09%, UP TWO BASIS POINTS TO 3.07%. I ARTICULATE THIS I KNOW IT'S ON THE LOWER TICKER FOR WE HAVE FOLKS IN THE CAR LISTENING ON XM113 OR ON FOXBUSINESS AND THAT MEANS THERE'S A FEAR IN THE MARKET AT THE MOMENT AND I'M PRETTY SURE IT IS MOVING HIGHER RIGHT NOW PRETTY MUCH SESSION-THE FEAR COMING IN SPURS A LIGHT TO QUALITY OR FLIGHT TO A SAFE HAVEN BUT TALK ABOUT THINGS THAT PETER MAYBE DOESN'T SEE.
DECENT GDP NUMBER JUST BE SILLY FOR THE FIRST PRINT ON THE RECORDER AND ARE ON THE PLANET IS LOW AND PETER WAS A ON A PLANET WAS LOW AND 2007 BEFORE THE CRASH - YEAH, I WOULD SAY LOOK, I WILL GIVE YOU IT TO THE EYES OF OUR CLIENTS. THEY ARE SAYING EARNINGS ARE PRETTY GOOD AND HALF THE S&P 500 IS A QUARTER WILL REPORT THIS WEEK AND ECONOMY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.
OBVIOUSLY THERE ARE A LOT OF CONCERNS WITH TARIFFS AND SO MANY THINGS GOING ON BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE VOLATILITY LEVELS TODAY IT IS 26, 27 - IF I GO BACK HISTORICALLY IT WOULD LOSE LIKE THIS WOULD BE IN THE 30s AND I'M NOT SAYING IT'S A PERFECT INDICATOR BUT WHAT OUR CLIENTS ARE TRAINED TO DO IS ASSESS WHETHER IT'S AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THEM TO DIP THEIR FEET BACK INTO THE WATER AND GET MORE EXPOSURE OR JUST TO SIT TIGHT.
LIZ: PETER, WHAT ARE YOU BUYING OR PUTTING MONEY? EARNINGS ARE ALWAYS GOOD AT THE BEGINNING OF THEIR MARKETS. NUMBERS ALWAYS LOOK GOOD. LIZ: NOW MY QUESTION. ANSWER MY QUESTION. LOOK, YOU TALK ABOUT FEAR AND GOAL IS NOT UP-TO-DATE. GOLD STOCKS ARE ON SALE AND THAT IS WHERE THE SEALS ARE RIGHT NOW AND THE GOLD STOCKS ARE - A LOT OF THE INTERNATIONAL VALUE STOCKS I'VE BEEN BUYING MANY STOCKS ARE UP TEN, 20% LAST WEEK A LOT OF PEOPLE DID NOT NOTICE THAT BUT AS THIS BEAR MARKET IS STARTING PEOPLE ARE SHIFTING AND RELOCATING OUT OF THAT MOMENTUM TYPE STOCKS IN THE VALUE DEFENSE NAMES IN THAT BIG A SHIFT WILL BE OUT OF US STOCKS WHICH ARE THE BIGGEST BUBBLE INTO THESE UNDERVALUED FOREIGN STOCKS IN EMERGING MARKETS AND THAT IS WHERE THE REAL BUYING
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