저자: MarkYusko · 외국인
요약 보기
한줄결론: 연준의 금리인상은 아직 부족하며 장기적으로 비트코인은 디지털 금이 될 수 있다. 연준 정책: 연준이 2013년 경기회복기에 금리를 3~4% 수준으로 올렸어야 했고 지금도 명목GDP(약 4~5%) 수준까지 단기금리를 올려야 한다고 주장한다. CPI는 실제 물가를 잘 반영하지 못한다고 본다. 경기침체 전망: 단기금리가 계속 올라 수익률곡선 역전과 경기침체가 와도 좋은 '정화 과정'이라고 본다. S&P500 기업 14%가 향후 3년 EBIT로 채무이자를 감당하지 못한다고 언급했다. 수익률곡선: 곡선이 매우 평평하며 장기금리가 단기만큼 오르지 않아 시장이 연준의 정책 오류를 우려하는 신호라고 해석한다. 연준이 금리를 올리면 장기 구간은 하락한다. 연준의 여력: 경기침체 시 연준이 대응할 수단이 부족하므로 경기 사이클 후반에는 금리 수준을 높여 둬야 한다는 입장이다. 주식시장: 주식 시장은 약세장 초입이라고 본다. 암호화폐: 비트코인은 법정화폐 체계 대안이자 강세장 초입의 자산으로 보며, 디지털 금이라고 주장한다. 기관 투자자 자금이 유입되고 있고 피델리티 등의 디지털 자산 사업이 큰 발전이라고 평가한다. 장기적으로 프로토콜형 '가치의 인터넷(trust net)'이 될 수 있다고 본다. 리스크: 경기침체와 수익률곡선 역전 가능성, 연준의 정책 오류 가능성이 제시된다.
다듬은 글
so what do you have to say about the Fed because here we are with all of the metrics that you're bringing up you know they do not support a Federal Reserve that's going to raise interest rates four times this year and that's why the president has been so upset about this Janet Yellen meanwhile the former chairman of the Fed is speaking out against the president's comments about the central bank she says that they're counterproductive that don't call the Fed crazy and Loco it's counterproductive and yeah you're saying they are actually no I don't think they're crazy I think I think the Fed has been behind the curve for a long time I said a couple years ago that they were far behind in 2013 when the economy started to recover they should have raised rates back up into three four percent range short-term interest rates for a hundred years have been equal to nominal GDP okay nominal GDP today is somewhere around four or five percent so short-term rates should be there now John yeah what's going to tilt us into recession what's the catalyst I think it's in inverted Yoker I think the short-term rate should keep coming up we should go ahead and have a nice cleansing recession there's a lot of zombie companies 14 percent of companies in the S&P couldn't pay their debt service with their next three years EBIT up those companies need to go away and the strong company to survive so far if people are selling longer-term Treasuries that's a sign that the economy looks ok does it not because we're not saying we've seen a kind of stability in the yield curve and it's not anywhere near even flat at this point oh no it's very flat it's just a flat finish to work late but not in year it's not the flattest it's been in years is it Wednesday oh absolutely yeah I mean it came up a couple of bases yeah but it's it's almost inverted and the threes and thirty-year is not rising as much as the short-term is people believe that the Fed is making a policy err that's what the markets telling the Fed is the Fed raises rates the long end falls and if it does invert that would be the market saying we don't believe what the growth is they keep raising when inflation is right in 2% and lately as we all agree the Fed is shouldn't keep raising well I look at it is I actually don't think that its CPI is a very good measure of inflation I think there's a lot of cost that we all spend money on that are significantly higher than that I think that nominal interest rates are a little bit too low I don't think they should be five or six percent but I think they could be a little higher the other issue is when you're late in a cycle you need to have a little bit higher rate so that when the cycle turns and when things start to get negative the Fed can cut again they really are out of tools if we do go into recession you want to raise rate so much that you cause a recession that you have the ability to to fight because you've raised rate so much I'm a big believer that recessions are natural part of the business cycle that we shouldn't have attempted to abolish them in the first place I would have thought that the Loko part of the Fed was keeping zero interest rates first and that was that was that's what I was up there with local I grew real quick cryptocurrency you like it love it yeah I wear my crypto tie today look we think that the the equity markets are the beginnings of a bear market we the crypto markets the beginning of a bull market okay I'm a big believer that sound money right what but non fiat currency since 71 you know currencies all around the world have started to explode look what happened in Zimbabwe Venezuela and when when you issue too much debt and the government can't support that debt currencies have to devalue and fidelity is gonna store and trade digital currencies for hedge huge that is big and that is a huge development and what it says is a great wall of money the institutional investors are coming for this asset and it is the first alternative asset really in my career that delivers on the promise it actually gives you better return something else love Bitcoin we think that is digital gold ultimately maybe a reserve currency a not the a reserve currency but there are some other things the theorem is more of a protocol like a platform it's like the www dot internet of value or what I want to dub the trust net so we went from the Internet to the mobile net now the trust net all right we'll leave with Denmark gradients are just good to see you know thanks so much Marquess go
Comments 0