저자: JustinCaron · 외국인
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S&P500이 4일 연속 하락을 끊고 반등 마감했으나 이를 기술적 반등(relief rally)으로 규정. 400 부근 공급·수요 구간이 핵심이며 400 위 회복 시 412, 아래로 닫으면 405 이하 약세 전환 우려. 50일선 이탈과 주간 종가 405 이하를 약세 신호로 제시. 달러·금리 급등이 악재였고, 발표 지표(ISM 등) 강세에도 저점 방어는 매수세 신호로 해석. 장기적으로는 2008년 유사 하락 가능성을 언급.
다듬은 글
hello youtube today the s p is closing out with a hammer it is closing higher than it opened and this is snapping a four day losing streak one of the worst ones we've had so far this year we can also note that we are now inside a huge supply in demand zone we note that we are back to the area where we were having the most uh again the historic shorts were coming in from starting at about 411 down here to about 370.
this is going to be the most important area for me right now i have now revised my daily chart and i think it's really important for us to understand how markets move because yesterday we hit a low of 395.04 today we hit a low of 390.04 that .04 area is exactly where we bounced for the last two days and we can note that we also made it all the way back to uh the low from august 30th here at 396 which is basically where we closed this is also really notable because we opened up a new month that's right so there was actually a gap on the monthly chart which is extremely unusual we almost never see gaps on the monthly the last time we actually saw one of these goes all the way back to uh november which was when we had that gap above the 400 actually no this is a gap here at uh 360.
we left a really small gap here on the monthly chart we did fill it and then went higher so although we are now green is this going to signal more downside like it did again on the opposite side when we were back here in november in december of 2020 i don't know but for today we're gonna rejoice because these bulls got some relief yes this is a relief rally this is not a reversal for us to reverse we can't be pointing down we can't be below the short-term average but there is some pressure building up and there were some very clear signs today that we were going to get a little bit of relief i don't want to look over here at qqq and qqq is going to show us kind of the same thing where we can note that we closed green by 13 cents we'll see if it holds on the mlc into the next nine minutes here but um that's a massive hammer and the low here is two nine to two point nine five the key area that i saw as battling for for a large part of the day was going back to our gap here at two ninety four eighty seven so here we're looking at the uh the pink box um the pink box on spy has now been expanded but it's important to note that uh qqq has now made it back up here to the high the high from the gap is now going to be 299 23 where we close 299.4 which means we saved it yay balls whoop we saved it if we now go back to spy we can note that ah so that means if we were tracking here s p would be at 401.44 we're not quite there yet again we're looking at the the gap from june 9.
so this level is so important because if we think about this um how was the bottom of the year created it was created by this overwhelming desire to want to start shorting the hell out of the market on june 9 all the way down to june 17 or roughly over a week and a half then after the pressure is done everyone shorted it what happens we start to fade back up so everyone who shorted it started to go a little bit less green again more green less green and then startly eventually we get over it all the way up which means everyone who shorted inside of this area lost and now as we re-enter the gap what is going to be so important for me is how we act around these gap areas because it's pretty much going to signify our p and l or our profit and loss another way to look at this is actually by going here adding in the volume profile and then just noting where the supply is ah if we hide all the trend lines and just look here purely at the volume profile going back to early june again when we formed the uh the low of the year what happens oh here we go so if we can actually make it back above roughly 400 we can probably snap back up to 412 which is a really important area as we've gone over on the monthly on the weekly and again also on the daily here so that's the level i'll be watching for we're now at the top end of the supply and demand if we can make it over 398 we're probably gonna squeeze up to 408 if not higher so it's really important for us to keep that in mind today um second thing i want to look at here or the next thing i want to look at sorry we looked at qqq we looked at spy but what is actually driving this well i actually want to give a shout out to mason who actually called us out on our pre-market stream and i went over we went over a lot of these notes on our our stream this morning but also i laid a lot of this out on slack i actually made a very nice trade today and uh there was really good signs here so if we notice what's happening here at the 50 dma we noted that spy and qqq have now closed below the 50 edma for two consecutive days that is almost always gonna lead to more downside so this is not looking really good but there could be some short term relief or a trap again qqq now closing below for those two days also signaling that it's now getting some fresh bare momentum what is missing well the last generals the last generals are the trillion dollar companies nvidia definitely provided a very sour note today however what's closing green apple google amazon tesla meta all closing up and it's notable that apple is actually back above its 50 dma with a hammer opening up almost perfectly on that area so if we now go back to apple we can note that yes apple is still above its 50 dma is this enough i do not know but it's a good start next one we're going to look at here is going to be amazon amazon exact same thing open on the 50 put in a tail and rallied up last one tesla open on the 50 push down rallied up closing at the high of the session is this enough to offset all this right here i do not know i don't know what i want to look at next is going to be what we're going to be looking for in terms of whether or not we're getting again relief or a reversal attempt so for apple amazon a tesla i'm looking really close here to i'm actually going to remove all the lines and then we'll put them back i'm looking right here to the day where we took a day to pause where we get close to the 50 we actually go below on overnight meaning on es and on nq and then we just uh fade it the next day so what i'll be watching for is whether we get a gap up into tomorrow and if we do how do we react to it it could be just a fresh uh again fresh liquidity for them to sell into it could also be a short-term reversal where um the broader market meaning the s p might want to close out here at about 400 tomorrow so if we close at 400 tomorrow there is a level on the options chain what tells us that that's really important and if we go here to our weekly chart actually do i want to show this uh this is the area where i identified the reversal and i showed this in our chat room so i was looking here at uh this image and this is pretty much when we reverse so i'll go over this for one or two minutes and i'll explain the reason why i think this happened so this was shot here at uh i don't know what time this was uh roughly one o'clock just after lunch we were forming a reversal pattern here and now if we look back oh goodness when we got over the v-wap and we reclaimed the opening of the bar meaning the opening opening of the day that's when we started to shoot up and it was a pretty nice rally so after we reclaimed uh right the gap area we bounced up we started going higher and uh that's how we went from roughly uh 391 up here to about 397 or roughly a one and a half two percent rep and what that really led to was um us reclaiming the v web and then printing an hourly higher high so hourly higher high got formed here at uh 12 1 o'clock and then boom that was the release we were unable to form a higher high ever since 6 a.m this morning so momentum goes to the downside we start building up steam it starts releasing and then it gets released so the reason why this is so important is because going into tomorrow um we're gonna be getting a really big data point so i was looking for a reversal um again i think my target was already hit actually so i made a nice little scalp uh bought it at 39 uh 20s exited my last one at 3960s and we'll see where we go from here but the reason why this is important is because we're now noticing we have a short-term trend change however there's a big caveat here and the caveat is that at least on the e-mini futures or es every previous time you form a small uptrend and we're over the v web but then uh reject off the blue line or the 50ma there's our stomp small uptrend touch the blue line not even quite make it there's our stop now we're flattening out we got a reversal attempt here so what's happening well um we're trying to change the trend and our first key relative low also aligns with our 50ma so how we open tomorrow and how we get prepared going into payroll friday will be really important so now we want to talk about what happened today fear and greed went down to 43 now back up into neutral which means the market's not convinced we're really bearish yet for me if we get a weekly close below 405 on spy uh for me that's uh that's bearish that's what i said on the weekend so i gotta respect my notes anyways uh looking at what happened today healthcare is up and honestly i don't really know the reason why um it kind of seems like uh we heard a poll today that uh the democrats are now um actually looking uh pretty good joe biden's now what i think 45 approval so i think again not that i know i think if i'm trying to understand what's happening here people are getting ahead of the uh joe biden midterm move which might be healthcare it might be some green stocks god forbid and uh that's that's what it seems like i don't see any other reason why healthcare should really be going up when we got uh the virus pretty much behind us um so now looking at uh why today was notable well uh we got a crush on the ism number this came in strong came in the same as a previous reading and this just shows that um again we got less jobless claims we got strong manufacturing good data should be negative and the fact that we came all the way down to 390 but then bounced tells me that good data was was interpreted in a bullish manner and this is so important because the low going back to june 10th is 389.75 our low of the day 390.04 so these bears were motivated they had the they had the catalyst they had nvidia they had everything going for them but they could not crack or break the chart so if they can't crack or break the chart at a key area the question is why and that's the big question so why couldn't they do it um i believe it's because uh we're already down by i don't know like 9.5 off the high 9.7 that's basically a correction so 10 off the highs that's a correction it's a natural spot to be taking some profit off the table it also goes back to where this pink error points to or again where people were shorting the hell out of the market so if all they want is their money back they're like oh man i went from green to really big green to red to redder and then i want out if this is going to be the theme we're not going to really see us test the lower bound if we do it means that big nasty short couple hundred billion on es including other other markets is likely not going to come to fruition so now what i want to look at is again even before we had this move i was looking at a technical level yesterday we looked at the options train for motivation and now today can you see a reason why we didn't really go lower yeah there's open interest down to 385 but there's 400 000 puts at 390.
so uh if they let it below like that that like really stings we got open interest at 395 at 400 and there's volume really only starting at about 393. so all these today meaning all the puts smoked and on the call side this is where things are going to get interesting so again i have a theory on where we're going to go for tomorrow which i'll share in a moment but uh where's the fat stack today well the fat stack today is at 395 however the open interest is really muted so for a clue for us even before we get the payroll number tomorrow was going to be are we actually seeing conversion from volume into open interest or was this was it just a trade if it was just a day trade we will not see these numbers get bigger they'll stay the same there's going to be almost nothing over 10 000 on the put side if they've been closing these out these numbers will reduce so for tomorrow again if these numbers convert to open interest and we also get a positive reaction to the payroll friday i could see us going back up to about 400 but it's not going to be a straight line there either so for me what i would expect again expect not that i know um would be a gap down pump up and i say that because if now the goal is to see if these bears are going to try to stomp a depth back down fresh we got to give them a chance got to give him a chance to do it and if these calls over here are too deep in the money then they try to gap it down and then pump it up tomorrow to let it close at about 400 and the reason i say that is because when i do the math here i look at uh 395.
so these 395s again up until about the the last uh roughly 10 minutes these are worth about two bucks so two dollars plus 395 is equal to what ah it's equal to 397. it's almost like they're buying the lower strike to protect what they've sold out of the money i think so and then if we look at the 397s which is the other really big volume here um these are worth about two bucks what's the break even on that ah 3.99 so i think this is also then protecting this level here at about 400.
so if we're able to start going back up tomorrow to finish off the story here let me go back here to our weekly chart because again now we're getting a lot closer to the end of the week now um let's delete that tiny little line on there let's ask ourselves what would a 402 close or 400 mean for the s p well we're opening at 402 closing at 400 or right around max payne and the 50 dma means that we're gonna be closing down by half a percent on the week and that is really notable because the big culprit today was the dollar oh my goodness it's nearly at a hundred it is up by .8 on the week the 10-year note is also rocking higher dramatically so with that said if you want to know more about my thoughts in terms of how we got here i encourage you to watch the video the video that will queue up in a moment which walks you through my weekend prep and the reasons why i am again why i was looking for a potential repeat of 2008 and if we're gonna get that we cannot claim reclaim the 50 dma it has to be down down down from here with that said thank you for watching thank you for always commenting and smashing the thumbs up and i'll see you guys tomorrow thank you
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