저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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미국 경기 침체 가능성을 강조하며 정부지출 과다와 GDP 적자를 문제로 지적. 저소득층 소비 약화, 제조·산업·농업 부문 어려움을 언급하고 소프트웨어·서비스 부문은 상대적으로 양호하다고 봄. 반도체 전반은 세일 구간으로 보며 퀄컴·어플라이드머티리얼즈 보유 의사 표명, 엔비디아는 언급 비중이 낮음. 자막 기준 2024년 11월 방송 내용이며 특정 시점 가격 방향 예측은 제한적.
다듬은 글
and we'll discuss the NASDAQ and particular firms before I head to us let me pull up this final chart the market has had a great year as of Thursday morning the SN p and NASDAQ are both up 11% so far this year however clearly a huge I suppose we should termine a correction when indeed 20% is the area that needs repair what do you think of the selloff and the broader US market chaff we're likely to experience a few really challenging revision of historical data because I believe we're in a mild recession when it comes to non-farm payrolls it's more important to consider how frequently the statistic is updated than the actual quantity in actuality these things are continually revised and at the moment we are overestimating and revising less that also applied to GDP sack said I believe that we are in a difficult position then in very straightforward English people who manage highly cyclical Industries tell us that there is no demand this last week was an intriguing one Jason you brought up Millennials but there was a huge warning on demand for eron which makes you assume that all these young people are noo whatever money they had as a result you're beginning to witness the effects of the Surplus Capital whether it's the hot check or something else entirely in these cyclical Enterprises I believe that we are in a recession and that there is no demand Powell will have to make a cut as it likely gets more apparent in Q3 and key4 will the overreact to the pressure that is the question this year what's more popular than Nvidia stock in the near future The Uncommon limited edition Nvidia keychain souvenir might be valued hundreds or perhaps thousands of dollars in a matter of seconds our original stock was gone cut 75 to 100 instead of 25 and go slowly you can get yours right now by clicking the link below all right Freebird two consecutive quarters with negative GDP are the technical definition of a recession we're bouncing along but we haven't had that is the recession inevitable or do you think we'll see a beautiful recovery if they lower rates as much as the prediction markets are indicating what are your thoughts on the US economy as a whole of course government spending and inflation must be taken into consideration how much of today's economic growth is being driven by government spending the US federal government is expected to spend almost 30% of GDP or $7.3 trillion out of a $25 trillion GDP in the upcoming year and it's clear that we're still dealing with inflation the true question is how much of the economy is expanding due to productivity gains in Industries where people are producing goods and Performing tasks as opposed to the government using its borrowing and taxing power to Spur growth by inflating figures forcing money onto companies putting putting Capital into the markets and generating leveraged trades in the markets that's why I'm still worried about it as I stated last week I continue to have serious concerns about a number of the economy's severely troubled sectors including the manufacturing industrial and agricultural sectors however you can continue to develop and look good in the software and services sectors where you can raise pricing and have a wonderful high margin business however there are numerous aspects of the US and worldwide economy that are currently facing difficulties let's discuss this soft to bumpy Landing sack low-end consumers are undoubtedly becoming weaker examples of people searching for deals who wish to save money using those services are those who use arum and Amazon the consumer is robust according to higher-end services with higher price tags such as Uber and some upscale Merchants which are actually growing this earning season was A Tale of Two Cities with many high-end people claiming that that high-end consumers are robust while low-end consumers are weak How likely is it that we will see a recession and to answer your second Point Alon appeared on Lex Freeman for around 8 days or so lately the length of his appearance was unprecedented for the podcast however he also discussed his conversations with Trump and VC who has been vocal about this on our show and elsewhere he was a major candidate for vice president and advocated for drastically reducing government spending and increasing efficiency however there would be a response so does the prospective Republican Administration have a plan to drastically reduce spending and as a presidential candidate in either party do you believe that could have been too unpopular to announce as a strat in historical measures 4.3% is still a relatively low percentage but it represents a significant increase to LEAP thus far in a single month naturally it is also higher than the 3.5 % it was a year ago therefore the increases we're witnessing 10% year over-year 5% month over month are really noteworthy consumer weakness is clearly evident and I believe that professional investors are becoming increasingly concerned about the possibility of a recession last but not least it's very obvious that the private sector is experiencing a recession if the effects of government expenditure are taken out of the picture I mean as we have been discussing the government has been spending excessively resulting in a 6% GDP deficit the most recent Q2 growth figure was approximately 2% therefore we would undoubtedly be in a recession our growth rate would be negative if you made the government live within its means and cut its way back to balance therefore I do believe that the economy is suddenly looking really precarious I'm not sure if we will truly enter a recession in the next months okay listen I want to ask the question to everyone in this room you cannot Dodge the difficult questions on the Allen Podcast you must respond to them which is more likely chith sitting here a year from now a market rise or a recession which is defined as two qus of negative GDP a recession or a market upswing indicate which is more likely either as a percentage or simply your next freeberg those are not mutually exclusive you're suggesting that in a year to be honest I have no idea the length and meaning of the original content are preserved in this version only grammatical and Clarity Corrections have been made a safe haven or a high growth potential get your Nvidia keychain quickly for less than $10 only the first 100 orders will qualify for our huge discount currently alphabet meta and Microsoft are all relatively inexpensive but their valuations will increase therefore I haven't done anything in the past several days as I indicated on the air I did purchase a small amount of Facebook or meta sorry during the major collapse however it hasn't mattered because the market is trading as a single entity just like during previous volatile times they failed to discern between exceptional management entrenched growth and Fortress balance sheets they are eliminating them all therefore I am unsure of the Catalyst as we said I believe that the economic data that will be released this week will be the catalysts for the future because if the data is poor or indicates a struggling economy it will bring them all to the ground and that's when you come in I have nothing to do on such days which is the reason I dislike the market return at current levels I don't buy the momentum and I don't sell my core names to fill my positions which are rather filled and to find others I need a true wash out of the market Jimmy the Semus look after the selloff Keith learner at truest has upgraded the tech to overweight now this is one of the places that comes to mind while discussing what individuals find more appealing and we're going to let's just take Nvidia if you look at the performance of semi name brands this week Taiwan semi is up 10.5% this week while Cadence and tlaa asnl lamb applied on semi pteridine and Qualcomm have all had respectable weeks Nvidia doesn't need to be brought up in every semi conversation they're on sale you see I don't care which we can discuss Qualcomm if you don't want to discuss inidia they're on sale so I don't care not that long ago Qualcomm was worth $230 now it is about $165 and the company's prospects haven't really changed in the last 2 months to be honest I love it even more here you know if you loved it as much as I did when it surpassed $200 i' don't care if you get into Qualcomm with me or not you said Steve however this isn't your day hold off for a week or a few days this this is simply where the markets are at the moment returning to what I said earlier though if you enjoy Qualcomm applied material which I own as
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