저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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대화자들은 경기침체 가능성을 언급하며, 엔화 캐리트레이드 등 예상치 못한 블랙스완 리스크를 강조함. 버크셔해서웨이가 애플 지분을 대거 매도(연초 이후 약 55%)한 이유를 규제·중국 의존도·현금 비축 관점에서 분석하며, 애플은 규제 리스크(구글 검색 계약, 앱스토어 수수료, 중국 관계)에 노출돼 있다고 봄. 버핏이 현금을 쌓아 방어적 태세라는 해석도 제시됨.
다듬은 글
regarding the recession Jason yes I have been forecasting the same recession but I believe that a major shift in Market mood has caused many to suddenly worry about it which is one of the reasons it may finally happen now the other issue in my opinion is that we may not yet be aware of all the negative information the unknown unknowns indeed none of us was keeping tabs on the carry trade in Yen although we may have heard of it it wasn't until this past week that we really gave it much thought how many more items like that are there in the world additionally I believe that this Administration has a history of keeping things under wraps to avoid getting political they kept the B facility hidden for years for those who are unaware we are discussing the idea of black swans it must be something you are unaware of and have a significant effect in order to have a Black Swan this wouldn't apply to the Yen trade because it didn't have a significant impact and people were aware of it even if it wasn't from Page News however black swans might be seated there of course the subprime mortgage catastrophe during the great financial catastrophe is the most recent example of a Black Swan that really had a huge influence but no one knew about it it was well known and had a significant influence to characterize a Black Swan you need both of those qualities SX you do realize that there might be black swans you're implying that the bank of Japan's Retreat meant that the yen carry trade had little effect we don't know what the consequences would have been if they had continued do we however they didn't thus the more you know the better off those who are following the Black Swan tracker sha let's discuss Apple I'll give you your flowers immediately they're on their way to you just glance to your left a huge bokade appears because as you anticipated I didn't send you any real flowers instead he looked to his left however these are your virt ual flowers I believe you were entirely right when you said that birkshire halfway and Buffett would become less interested in a trade the less they discussed it in their Publications letters and events as far as I'm aware birkshire Hathaway has sold half of Apple their biggest stake some claim it's because they don't trust the company some claim it's because they're overweight and still others claim it's because Freebird wants to increase the amount of money on the books so V can make more Acquisitions perhaps you could do your victory lap chamoth and then wheel I believe freeberg double clicked on this and took a plunge I'm at a loss for words he stops mentioning the corporation in his letters because he is selling which it is I believe a tendency in their correspondence it's a terrific great great read yes and this is what took place okay so let's go over this freeberg it appears that they have liquidated 55% of their apple Holdings since the year began and here is what what birkar stock Holdings were in their non-majority owned businesses that is companies that they do not directly own at the end of the year Nick if you can bring up this picture with the pie chart additionally Apple accounted for $174 billion or 50% of their portfolio just a few days ago Apple's stock price undoubtedly reached its highest point ever but it has since declined as it was revealed that Burkshire had sold 55% of this holding since the year began accordingly some people contend that they have an opinion regarding the competitive environment and the company's strategy with the valuation multiple trading at almost 30 times earnings some have claimed that it has risen too high since Burkshire purchased the stock in 2016 it has increased 900% a nine bagger well done yes and as you can see here at the beginning of the year some might contend that the portfolio's percentage is excessively high at over % however i' will offer some counterarguments you know when Warren Buffett evaluates the stocks he has chosen he rarely conducts analysis on corporate strategy he frequently talks about identifying outstanding managers who produce High returns and sticking with them for many many years since he invested money the company's management has remained the same and the return profile for both invested and returned funds has only increased he's content to be concentrated since their producing more cash flow paying out more dividends and repurchasing more stock he has placed significant Wagers on individual businesses throughout the years to the extent that occasionally he simply purchases the whole business as he did with Geico in 1996 he frequently discusses the need of identifying a business with excellent management a high-end product we locked in distribution and fix prices the same is true in the insurance industry where State Regulators ESS Ally authorize and set Geico's pricing because the government sets the rates publicly and Burkshire has the largest Capital base and a cash generating engine the company has a moat however apple is unregulated and it is evident that the regulatory bodies who are in charge of the company are putting a great deal of financial pressure on it because Google pays Apple $0 billion annually to be the default search engine there is a real regulatory danger in the Google antitrust case we'll talk about the Google arrangement in a moment additionally apple has a close relationship with China where they sell a majority of their products and conduct a large portion of their manufacturing Apple faces a serious danger as authorities begin to scrutinize business ties with China users are tracked by advertising and customers are also charged membership fees most significantly we have discussed Apple's 30% VI on its App Store and how authorities are now intervening to examine this Apple may experience financial hardship as a result of this shift because the company is not yet a regulated Monopoly even if it may be one in many ways when they reach the opposite side it begins to resemble a massive birkshire style company much more that concludes my overview of Apple's current situation I'm not sure whether you guys yes I believe it's pretty deaf but I'm not sure sock what do you think about this huge cash boost and what Warren Buffett and Burkshire halfway are thinking is it that he gained weight at Apple or is he hoarding money because he wants to make inexpensive purchases as the recession approaches or to put free Bird's Point regulation buffi was sitting on the largest cash pile he had ever sat on according to this chart that many people shared online during the global sell-off that occurred on Sunday and Monday people aren't really discussing this because of the market recovery that followed but it makes sense that Buffett is accumulating a war chest here and is in a relatively defensive posture as you can see he began making a lot of investments in 2021 to 2022 which caused the cash pile to decrease given the size of his cash pile it would seem reasonable to assume that he believes that public stocks currently provide a poor risk reward ratio and that he is once more slightly more riskof chamoth how do you feel about the regulatory risk argument that freeberg is putting forward here since he also sold a a lot of buid which they have owned since 2008 I believe David is correct when freeberg says that the China issue might have had an effect you know there's a Chinese Electric Vehicle Manufacturer so that might have contributed to tell the truth I have no idea hold on you're implying Reliance on China he might have thought that the portfolio as a whole had too much Reliance on China because both of those depend on it perhaps yes that's some I could purchase that makes a fair amount of sense however it's important to keep in mind that these choices have been considered for at least a few quarters recall that the letter he sends was drafted months and months ago it wasn't written yesterday therefore I believe that these choices were made some time ago if we're going to play conspiracy theorists another reason is that you know Charlie muner maybe beginning to compile the book in preparation for the smooth transition to Greg AEL following Buffett's death you're implying that he wants to transfer it with less risk when you say that therefore there would be a risk associated with relying solely on one stock or China in order to facilitate a smoother handoff he wants to make it extremely tidy he wishes to pass down a well structured book or perhaps
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