저자: 서대리 · 한국인
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11월 4일 미국 기술주 급락(QQQ -2.03%)과 11월 5일 코스피 6% 급락 후 AI 버블 우려가 커지며, 기술주 비중이 낮은 SCHD가 방어력을 보였다고 설명. 2022년 MDD 구간에서 SCHD는 -24%, QQQ는 -35%였다는 과거 데이터를 근거로 제시. 다만 SCHD도 주식이라 닷컴버블·금융위기 때 크게 하락했다고 경고하며, 본인은 배당 안정성 관점에서 장기 적립을 이어가고 S&P500 ETF 적립을 유지하겠다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
hello. I will stand by you. It seems that cracks are gradually appearing in the stock market, which had been only rising, starting in November . US stocks closed at 6% on November 4, with QQQ down 2.03% and the rest down 1.16%, as they fell, centered on tech stocks that had risen wildly . It is early November, and various factors are intertwined, including concerns over massive corporate issuances resulting from Big Tech's ruthless AI investments, the overvaluation and controversy surrounding tech stocks, and even Michael Burry, the protagonist of *The Big Short*, betting on the decline of Palantir and Nvidia .
As Bitcoin, often called digital gold, has also recently fallen, talk of an AI bubble is gaining traction again. Given the situation, Korean stocks could not avoid a decline on the following day, November 5. With the KOSPI falling more than 6% during trading, it is reported that the sell-side card was activated for the first time since the tariff war in April .
As the market has been falling with the decline centered around hot assets like tech stocks, growth stocks, and cryptocurrencies, I naturally thought of SCHD, which has been forgotten lately . On November 4, SCHD's stock price fell by only 0.11% to 1%, showing a good performance for the first time in a while .
In fact, looking at returns by major sectors, the technology sector ETF XLK fell by nearly 3%, but representative defensive ETFs such as healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities were positive or, even if negative, saw very small declines. With talk of the tech bubble, AI bubble, and growth stock bubble coming up so frequently these days, it seems like an opportunity for SCHD, which has a low weighting in tech and growth stocks, to shine again .
Arguments are also gradually resurfacing that now is the time to start accumulating. Given that SCD became a popular ETF due to its tremendous stock price defense during the 2022 market downturn, the situation looks similar to that time. The time when SCD became popular in Korea was around the time the bear market of 2022 was ending.
If you look at the search volume trends for SCD on Naver Data Lab, it gradually increased from 2021, then gained momentum in earnest in 2022, and from July 2023, it received the love of many investors due to its tremendous popularity. This is because it showed tremendous defensive power, unlike BuQ, during the record-breaking market downturn of 2022.
The dividend yield is over 3% and the stock price return is decent, and it barely dropped even during the all-time bear market . In October 2022, when the decline peaked, SCHD was -15% when the MDD was -24% and QQQ was -35% . At the end of December, the stock was down 19% and QQQ was down 31%, but SCHD showed insane stock price defense at -4% .
For reference, this calculation is entirely based on daily TR index data. I have uploaded the raw data updated up to November 4th of this year to the Naver Cafe, so if you would like to calculate it yourself like me, please check the link in the pinned comment. And as a side note, since I was looking at Korean trends on Naver Trends, I was curious if people around the world were also interested in SCHD, so I searched on Google Trends .
I looked into the last five years and got some interesting results. The search trend itself was similar to Naver, but in the search rankings by country, South Korea was the overwhelming first place, and the United States was second, with the search volume at 40%, which is less than half of Korea's .
As I mentioned before, SCHD certainly seems to be a sport that Koreans love particularly strongly. When I looked at the search rankings by city, there were as many as four Korean cities in the top 5 . 1st place is Seongnam City, 2nd place is Hwaseong City, 3rd place is Fremont, 4th place is Suwon City, and 5th place is Seoul Special City.
I naturally assumed Seoul would be in first place, but Seongnam City's firepower was incredible. From now on, Seongnam, Hwaseong, and Suwon should be called the cities of SCD. As the market shows signs of instability centered on tech stocks, SCHD investment is gradually being mentioned again as an alternative .
This is because it feels like the same stock price trend as in 2022 will be repeated. Of course, if the market collapses solely driven by tech stock growth rates, switching to SCHD in advance or increasing your portfolio weight would be a good strategy . However, as I have always said, if you are approaching SCHD investment solely from the perspective that it offers good protection in a bear market, please reconsider.
SCD has a low weighting in technology stocks, and although it does contain some, it lacks any of the top stocks in the currently trending QQQ; therefore, looking at historical data, there is a certain degree of asset allocation effect. However, since SCHD is also a stock, it drops as drastically as the SMP 500 and Nasdaq in bear markets where the entire market is affected .
According to past data, SCHD was also cut in half at one point . This is the reason why investing for stock price protection in a bear market and dividends can sometimes lead to results worse than a dollar deposit. The market downturn caused by the tariff war in April of this year was a prime example.
If we plot the global index MDD chart from January 1 to November 4, 2025, the largest decline was on April 8, when the SMP 500 fell by 19%, the Nasdaq 100 by 23%, and the SCHD by 14%. Of the three, SCHD fell the least from its peak, but it did not have 2022-level defense. For the remainder of the year, it was difficult to say that MDD or SCHD defense was particularly outstanding .
As you are all well aware, the recovery after the bear market has been slow, so the MDD in early November is actually the lowest in SCHD. If we extend the MDD chart period from January 2018 to November 2025, we can examine SCHD's selective defensive capabilities in more detail . During this period, there were four major bear markets: the US-China trade conflict in 2018, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the high-interest rate bear market in 2022, and the tariff war in 2025.
Except for 2022, its defensive performance against the SMP 500 and Nasdaq was not that good. During the COVID-19 pandemic, a strange phenomenon even occurred where the SCHD actually fell more than the Nasdaq . Let's also take a look at the MDD chart from 1999 to the present, which is linked to the SCHD underlying index market .
During the famous Daum Bubble, the NASDAQ fell by more than 80% from its peak . During the same period, SCHD MDD showed excellent performance at the 20% level . However, during the 2009 global financial crisis, FCCHD also could not avoid being cut in half by 50%. The Nasdaq is down -75%, but this is because the peak during the Daum bubble was so high that it failed to recover its previous level even then.
Based on stock prices just before the financial gains surged, the Nasdaq decline was also around -50%. If this downturn starts with the AI bubble but leads to a recession in the U.S. or globally, it is highly likely that SCHD will also take a hit. It is because it is a stock by nature . As can be seen from the MD chart, the starting point is the transition to a multi-combine period, and since this period spans nearly 9 years out of 26, volatility was bound to be relatively low no matter how it was backtested.
In fact, since the 2009 global financial crisis, there has been almost no difference in volatility compared to the S&P 500. This is why, when deciding to invest in SCHD, I approach it strictly from the perspective of dividend stability, rather than stock price defense or QQ's role in asset allocation.
Although the future is uncertain, SCHD dividends have been consistently paid out without any cuts regardless of the period. Of course, I think that if the ETF had been managed during the 2009 global crisis, when the SCHD underlying index was cut in half, dividends would have been cut. Given that even VI, which was designed from the outset as a dividend growth ETF, could not avoid a dividend cut at this time, I believe that a perfect dividend ETF does not exist in this world .
If it is an investment rather than a deposit, there is bound to be risk . Something unexpected may happen . Instead, the higher the risk, the higher the expected rate of return, and the lower the risk, the lower the expected rate of return. Therefore, I approach SCHD investment strictly from the perspective of stable dividends.
I am not considering investing for the purpose of preparing for an upcoming market downturn or for asset allocation with QQQ. Since this is an investment product intended to provide stable cash after retirement, I am currently focusing on diligently saving up investment funds . However, the reason I am investing a small portion is to experience firsthand with my own money whether dividends are paid well and how the stock price moves.
I think I would be worried about putting all my money into one lump sum and trying it out after retirement. However, when I bought more SCDs before retirement, the stock price had fallen significantly due to various factors, so the dividend yield was over 4% . This is because I believe it is a rare opportunity to purchase an ETF with good dividend stability at a really good price .
Of course, if this bear market is prolonged and falls centered on Nasdaq tech stocks like in 2022, switching the portfolio to SCHD will lead to good results. However, contrary to expectations, if the market returns to a bull market after a brief correction or if everything falls even when a bear market comes, it may be difficult to expect the rebalancing effect you envisioned .
As having too many variables and factors to consider actually hinders long-term investment, I am keeping it simple and focusing on accumulating SMP 500 ETFs . I am holding cash in dollar RPs or dollar parking ETFs to prepare for a potential market downturn. This is ammunition to buy more if the stock price falls to the target price I have set .
However, these days, I sometimes think that big tech stocks might be the safest option compared to dollar cash . Looking at the overwhelming cash generation ability derived from irreplaceable goods and services , and the cash reserves, the future looks more promising than that of most countries. In fact, given that the market capitalization of Big Tech has already surpassed the GDP of major developed countries, they are also being recognized by the market .
However, nothing lasts forever, so Assistant Manager Seo will always invest in SMP 500 ETFs that manage his portfolio automatically based on market capitalization standards. Comments frequently appear stating that you cannot become rich with only the SMP 500 ETF . Of course, I cannot become a billionaire worth 5 billion or 10 billion won in a short period of time, but I believe that it is sufficient to acquire the financial assets I need through general market ETFs .
If you go ahead and wait for me, I will follow you diligently. So, thank you for watching this long video today . I hope my channel can be of at least a little help to my subscribers' capitalist lives . This has been Seodel.
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