저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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결론: 마크 파버는 트럼프 당선이 미국 자산시장에 부정적일 수 있다고 보며, 장기적으로는 신흥국 증시, 특히 인도가 미국보다 나을 것이라고 주장함. 미국 대선과 시장 전망: 트럼프 승리는 자산시장에 부정적, 힐러리 승리는 긍정적일 것이라는 통념에 대해 파버는 확신하지 않음. 힐러리는 신보수주의 성향으로 국제 긴장을 높일 수 있고, 트럼프는 미국 패권 약화를 인식하고 협상 중심일 것이라고 봄. 선거 전에는 연준과 언론이 힐러리를 지지해 큰 폭락은 어렵다고 봄. 통화정책과 자산 가격: 연준과 중앙은행의 마이너스 금리 가능성과 지속적 돈 풀기를 예상. 자산 가격은 이론적으로 계속 오를 수 있으며 다우 10만 등도 가능하다고 언급. 다만 경제 전망 자체는 비관적. 유럽 금융: 유럽 은행들은 재무 상태가 취약해 자본 확충이 필요하지만, ECB와 정부가 유동성 공급 및 구제가 가능하다고 봄. 장기 투자 관점: 인도는 연 5~7% 성장이 가능해 장기적으로 기업이익과 주가가 미국보다 나을 것이라고 전망. 단, 평화가 전제 조건. 미국 경기 확장은 이미 오래되어 기업이익 둔화, 성장 기대 약함. 미국 증시 리스크: 미국 주식은 PS, PER, PBR 기준 세계에서 가장 비싸 취약하다고 평가. S&P500이 1810(2016년 2월 저점)까지 하락하면 10~40% 하락 가능성을 언급했으나, 그 수준에서 연준이 주식을 매입해 지지할 가능성도 제시. 채권: 1981년 이후 채권 랠리는 끝나가며, 10년물 금리가 2.5~3%로 오르면 주식도 타격 가능. 고객에게 향후 5~10년 연 8~12% 수익은 어렵다고 말함. 원자재와 금: 물가 상승(인플레이션)이 가속될 가능성이 있고 원자재 가격이 바닥을 쳤을 수 있다고 봄. 금 관련 주식은 고점 대비 큰 폭 하락 후 여전히 상대적으로 저렴하다고 판단. 구리·알루미늄 생산 기업도 장기 순환 관점에서 가치가 있다고 봄. 자산의 최소 25~30%는 중앙은행이 찍어낼 수 없는 자산에 두라고 조언. 정치 발언: 힐러리 클린턴과 빌 클린턴은 부정직하다고 비판하며 지지하지 않는다고 밝힘. 출연자 전망 요약: 단기적 큰 폭락보다는 장기적으로 신흥국(인도) 우위와 금·원자재 선호, 미국 주식 고평가 경계.
다듬은 글
as all the way from Thailand Mark Faber uh the uh unmatched investment Guru joins us uh Mr Faber good good evening to you thank you very much for joining us all the way from Thailand well first up uh I mean do you think the markets uh should show more signs of worry over the American elections do you think closer to November 8th we could see a lot more Jitters well I mean I think that uh the believe is that obviously Trump uh Victory if he got elected would be negative for asset markets for the US market and that the Hillary Victory would be positive but I'm not so sure about this uh belief for the simple reason that Hillary is basically a neocon and is a warmonger and has inad or supported the invasion of a variety of countries already so that may lead to more International tensions whereas Trump is more aware of the fact that the US super power uh standing is gradually veining and that other countries are coming up and that the US cannot fight the whole world and cannot be the policeman to the whole world and that they have to gradually start to negotiate with other countries on equal terms okay uh Mr Faba good good afternoon from India so is it like a lose loose situation I mean half the people don't want Trump to come on board and now you're saying you know if Hillary comes on board as well there'll be a lot of international tension are we looking at the possibility of a big crack in global markets post the elections I don't think it will happen before the election because the FED shiv at the thought of a trump Victory they are supporting Hillary Clinton as incidentally the entire media establishment is supporting Hillary Clinton and this anti-trump is very biased against Trump now uh my view is that in this environment and we have now clear voices at the fed and other central banks that basically uh the FED should be able to implement negative interest rates and B that the fed and other central banks might do well if they B equities so under this scenario you ask yourself what is actually the down downside risk in my view under both Trump and Hillary they will continue to print money there is no other way out the system is basically bankrupt and so money printing will continue and then the question is what will happen to asset markets in theory they can continue to go up as I pointed out I'm not optimistic about the global economy but if you print enough money say the San Banks balance sheets increased between 98 and 2015 by 16 times one six times okay why can't they go up another 10 20 times in the next five years and in that scenario the Indian market can go up the Dow Jones could go to 100,000 and so forth and so on anything is possible we don't know how far the Mad professors at central banks will go no I take your point a lot of uh experts including yourself have been you know speaking out against the Central Bank policies but uh separately over the next quarter or two quarters what do you see as red flags for the market could it be the European banking system for instance yes this is a concern uh European Banks s are in a very poor financial condition they will need more Capital but you understand in theory the ECB and other central banks can essentially provide liquidity to the established Banks and governments if they like they can basically bail out Banks they may have failings here and there where some Bond holders like the are Coco bonds outstanding would get hurt to some extent but basically the governments can essentially buy shares in say Commerce Bank or dche bank and recapitalize the bank as a result of that and then the government will be an owner of say 50% of the bank or 30% or what not that is all possible we just don't know we are and I'm writing a report about this in a surrealistic economic and financial world so uh you know I read in a report that you had written or rather in an interview that you had given that over a 10-year period you prefer investing in the Indian markets rather than the US markets so what makes you so confident about India well I know that there are studies that will negate this view but in my opinion uh a country that grows at say five or six or 7% such as India will have in the long run corporate profit growth that is about equal to GDP and if companies are well run and if they can expand for a given period of time as a percentage of the economy they can achieve earnings growth of say 10 15 20% per atom for a given period of time so in other words nominal economic growth translates into higher corporate profits and that in the long run translates into higher Equity prices okay and that is the case for India okay in the case of the us we've had an expansion now for more than seven years it began in9 in June we're now already October 2016 so by historical standards the expansion is very old corporate profits have started to decline the economy is hardly growing I don't see where corporate profits will grow substantially in the US so my view is if I look at the next 5 to 10 years I think that emerging economies stock markets in particular the Indian economy which can easily grow at 5 to 7% per anom for the next 10 years that they will perform better than the us there is one Proviso however and this is the most important condition for financial markets to do well and that is peace and I'm afraid that there are so many Republicans and neocons of the Republican Party that support Hillary that a deal between Hillary Clinton and the neocon was already done that the neocons uh will basically take over foreign policy and Hillary Clinton can print money in the US and distribute money to uh minorities and God knows what and that this steal can lead to International tensions that then are not condu I to equities and bond prices okay uh Mr Faba what would you be buying now if uh uh your clients asked you to invest their money well that is a very good question I think I would tell my clients we have had an incredible bond market rally since 1981 Bond deals are not going to go down much more they may not go up some finally but they're not going to go to minus 5% perom so the bond market is relatively unattractive does it mean that equities are much more attractive that is far from certain because if yields on say the US 10 years treasury goes to two and a half or 3% that may hit actually Equity markets as well so I would tell the client look I'm happy to invest your money but the returns over the next five years or 10 years will be very disappointing to you because you expect to make between 8 and 12% on your portfolio every year and that is simply not going to happen Okay so would we have to endure a big crash in global Equity say over the next 6 to 12 months is that something that you're forecasting it's not that necessarily A forecast but I think it could easily happen the US market is so much more expensive based on price to sales price to earnings Price to Book than any other Market in the world that US stocks are in my opinion more vulnerable than is in general perceived so they could easily we were in February of this year at 1810 on the SNP okay 1810 from here would be a decline of more than 10% but if the market goes to 1810 we could go down also 20% or even 40% but I believe as we would approach the February lows on the SNP at 1810 that the FED under the influence of the money printers and people like uh Larry Summers who Advocates and recommends the FED to buy equities that the fed and other central banks would step in and start to buy equities to support the market yes sir well that also exists well are you buying gold anything other than uh paper assets yes you see I'm spending a lot of time uh thinking the current Financial system that we can all agree is not sustainable in the long run M the big question is how will it all unwind will it unwind with a breakdown of democracy with a breakdown of Law and Order and so forth and so we just don't know but I think one of the potential significant problems that may occur is what the fed and other central banks actually wish for and this is inflation I think there's a good chance that commodity prices have bottomed out and that inflation in general will accelerate in other words people's cost of living will start to go up more than what is uh desirable and that will depress real earnings but it will be good for assets such as Commodities especially precious metal obviously and very negative for bonds and probably negative for equities when yields go up M so I want to own some Commodities I think if you look at uh sectors in the US so globally what is inexpensive okay gold shares have red say 100% from the lows but they came down before by 90% so they're still relatively inexpensive you look at basic stocks that are producing copper or aluminum and so for and so these companies are not terribly expensive from a long-term cyclical point of view so there I see some value okay and that is where I would put some of my clients money now if you come with to with a million dollars to me I'm not going to buy and put it all in gold and gold shares you know understand that would be irresponsible but I would tell you maybe you should have at least 25 to 30% of your money in an asset that cannot be printed by Central Bank okay okay we got that got we got that fear but you know before we let you go you've confused us a little bit more about uh the US elections and who one should vote for I know you can't vote because you're sitting in Thailand but if you could who would you vote for of course I would never and I repeat never in my life would I vote for someone like Hillary Clinton or Bill Clinton okay they are dishonest have no morals whatsoever and uh they are so there's so much smoke around them wherever they went wherever they lived that when there is so much smoke there must be also a big fire some where okay okay that that fear is your V we got your vote by default Mr Mark Farber thank you very much for joining us pleas all right so no
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