저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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결론: 인도 조정은 매수 기회이며 인도·중국 등 신흥국 상승 여력이 미국·유럽보다 크다는 낙관적 전망. 지정학·은행 리스크 평가 독일은행 등 유럽 문제는 글로벌 시장에 영향을 줄 수 있으나 인도에는 큰 영향이 없을 것으로 봄. 인도의 개혁 추진이 계속되고 있어 장기적으로 시장이 잘 될 것이라 확신. 조정과 자금 흐름 인도 시장 조정은 매수 기회로 판단. 세제 개혁 등 추가 개혁 조치들이 시장에 긍정적 영향을 줄 것으로 기대. 미국 시장 둔화로 자금이 신흥국, 특히 인도·중국으로 이동 중이라고 설명. 밸류에이션 절대 밸류에이션으로는 인도 시장이 중간값 이상이지만, 금리 대비로 보면 여유가 있다고 판단. 금리가 낮아질수록 높은 PER을 감내할 수 있음. 니프티가 현재 17~18배 수준이며 금리 환경을 고려하면 30배까지도 감내 가능하다고 언급. 섹터 전망 금융: 순이자마진 축소로 일부 문제가 있으나 구조조정·M&A가 업계에 긍정적이라 평가. IT: 선진국 성장 둔화로 소프트웨어 기업들이 둔화를 겪고 있으나, 인터넷 분야는 생존 기업들이 크게 성장할 것으로 봄. 가장 주목하는 섹터는 소비재(consumer)이며, 통신 업계도 구조조정 후 흥미로운 섹터로 언급. 출연자 전망 인도·신흥국 중기 이상 강세 및 소비재 매수 관점 유지.
다듬은 글
another big boys that we spoke with about half an hour back mark mobius of temple franklin templeton investment Jane duss from Hong Kong and we began by asking him whether the border issue worries him a lot about his investments in india there's no question that you know these sub problems will arise from time to time particularly what you're seeing in Europe with dirty bank that affects the global marketplace because people get concerned about banks generally but I don't think that is going to have a big impact on India going forward because the reform movement in India is ongoing and is very very beneficial and we have complete confidence that India will move forward and the market will do very well mark hi good morning you know the worry is that will liquidity suffer will fund flow suffer because of the the news flow and will be go through a period of protracted uncertainty in correction is that likely and would that be buying opportunity I think it's a buying opportunity and I think going forward you're going to see a lot of more reform movements the implementation of the tax reform is very important and it's just beginning so I think the impact of these reform movements will have a very positive move on the market mark how are you looking at the way in which the global markets themselves have been receding from there near term and all-time highs the US markets for instance or if you know an excuse which is not really connected to them like Deutsche Bank are all markets suffering from overvaluation will we see protracted faults in global markets there's two things happening first of all with these problems in Germany for example deutsche bank with a slowdown of the US market money is now moving into emerging markets how particularly India and China so you can see more of that going forward which will tend to move movement of mover prices up in these countries in addition to valuations of the Asian market quickly India and China are much more attractive than those of the US and Europe and then finally if you look at what's happening on the ground in these countries the pottersville developments are very very good for these markets and will have a positive impact on the markets so I think we have to expect more up movement in India than down movements ok amok when you talk about valuations in India I looking at the relative valuation because on absolute valuations the Indian market is trading above median valuations and it's moved up a bit over the last six or nine months you have to look at these valuations in relationship to interest rates if you look at interest rates how they're moving down you just have to do reciprocal of the interest rate for example let's say interest rates are one percent you can then tolerate a hundred times price earnings ratio if interest rates a five percent you can tolerate twenty percent so looking forward I believe with continued lower and lower interest rates quickly in India you will be able to tolerate much higher valuations okay oh like how much at the moment to the probably the nifty is at current levels tolerating 17 x 18 x how much more will you tolerate I think you can go up to 30 times there's no question about that particularly with the interest rate environment looking so benign interest rates in India should be going down as reforms kick in okay muck you are a big investor than in dad wont to know you know how are you looking at some of the big sectors financials have led the rally in india but the IT sector is going through a bit of a problem and the stocks are available at cheap valuations but the business itself is under a bit for cloud so going forward how would you look at investments in financials and IT that's the two big spaces in india financials of course are going to go through a contraction in the sense that with narrowing nav margins these financials may have some problems that will result in consolidation and mergers acquisitions that sort of thing which i think will be beneficial for the industry as regards to the IT sector of course the software people are going through some slow down they quickly because of what's happening in the developed countries growth rates in those countries are slowing down that impacts them but if you look further field in the internet sector many failures there's no question about that but the survivors will do very very well because internet is now growing at a very fast pace and is integrating into many many different industries in India okay well finally marker what's top of the mind recall now that the markets have given you an opportunity to buy what would you grab consumer consumer consumer that's where the story is and I believe going forward with consolidation and they softening up of the situation in the telecom sector I think that would be an interesting sector as well
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