저자: RakeshJhunjhunwala · 외국인
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결론: 라케시 준준왈라는 라잔 총재 교체에도 인도 시장은 계속 오를 것이라 보며, 정책 연속성과 펀더멘털이 시장을 좌우한다고 주장한다. 주제1: 라잔 총재 퇴임 영향 - 라잔 총재 교체가 시장 조정 요인일 수는 있으나 큰 하락은 없을 것으로 봄 - 2014~2015년 랠리는 모디 정권 안정성과 라잔 총재의 신뢰가 근거였다는 외국인 투자자 인식이 배경이었다고 설명 - 이후 시장은 몬순, 기업 실적 등 펀더멘털에 의해 움직일 것이라 전망 주제2: 통화정책 연속성 근거 - 외환보유고 충분, 인플레이션 약 5.5% 수준, 금리 인하가 전달되고 있음을 언급 - 중앙은행 통화정책위원회 도입, 물가목표제(±2% 또는 4% 언급) 등 제도 정착 예정 - 은행의 부실채권(NPA) 대응 강화 필요성 언급 - 라잔 총재의 유산이 중앙은행에 남아 후임자도 이를 이어갈 것이라 주장 주제3: 반론 및 조건 - 진행자는 브렉시트, 몬순 불확실성 속 시점이 우려된다고 질문 - 준준왈라는 미 연준 의장 교체 등을 과도한 우려로 보며 개별 기관과 국가가 개인보다 중요하다고 답변 - 상대 측은 라잔 유산의 지속 여부는 불확실하며, 부실채권 인정과 은행·대기업 유착 정리 등 제도 개혁이 지속돼야 시장 우려가 없다고 봄 종목 언급: 개별 종목 및 자산에 대한 구체적 매매 언급은 없음(인도 시장 전반 낙관) 리스크: 정책 연속성 실패, 브렉시트, 몬순 강수 부진, 부실채권 문제 출연자 전망: 인도 증시 중장기 상승 낙관, 단기 충격은 제한적이라는 입장
다듬은 글
coming in from Rakesh janala as well that the market will take all of this in its stride and move on higher let's listen in bu Market should climb a wall of worry we should not forget that I mean the policies are going to continue there's going to be continuity and nothing has really changed if Dr D is not there and remember it was very important when Dr rajin came at that time there was a crisis in India you know India was of fragile 5 fortunately at the moment there's no crisis we have used foreign extion reserves inflation around 5 5 and a half% the monetary policy the interest rate cuts are being transmitted so I don't see any reason why Market should go down there could be a knej reaction but I think markets will be driven you know by what happens in backit Monsoon corporate performance rather than the exit of Dr r the big rally we saw in uh 2014 uh and part of 2015 was because we thought or at least foreign investors led us to believe that there are two solid people uh at the helm uh there is political stability under uh Narendra Modi and there is a steady hand at the RBI with raguram Rajan now one half is going to be changed so will there be a perception in the minds of long only funds why do you believe were they not RB Governors other than Dr Rajan we saw a lot of we lot of saw a lot of fi inflow coming to India under Mr R against the last Governor I forget his name subar against unimal Jalan so Mr Rajan is not the only man in India who would ensure continuity so I see no reason unless until you appoint a governor policies that are followed are incorrect why do you assume that except Dr Ran nobody could follow a good monetary policy see what Dr Ran has done what ex hear me what Raj Dr Raj has done and heads off to him his legacy will always remain in the Reserve Bank government is going to have a monary policy committee we are going to have inflation targeting plus minus 2% or 4% right we are going to have slow trans we are going to have you know banks will have to be more agile in representing NPS so first of all the legacy of Dr Raj or whatever he has done will in my opinion remain and not change okay and why do you assume that Dr Rajan is the only man who could who could continue good monetary policy although whatever he's done hats off to him you know raakesh the other point that that was coming across was that the timing of the decision the market is already dealing with uncertainty over brexit Monsoon do you think that's a bit of a worry in terms of sentiment impact but then if Dr arist English decision that it doesn't want a second term we cannot do anything about it I think we are being unnecessarily second guessing as if we are the financial institutions as if everybody decides oh Yellen is the is the is the is the chief of the federal bank then only I put money in America when the new fellow comes I won't put money ma'am I think individual institutions and countries are greater than individuals although I will repeat again and again hats off for what Dr Rajan has right but I believe I believe what he has done has left a legacy the governor who follows him will have no choice but to continue that Legacy because whatever he has done he has taken India on the right path and they will be continu to in policy in my opinion therefore Dr rajan's marks on the Reserve Bank of India are going to last forever well that is the Hope really whether rajan's Legacy will be continued I'm not very sure I share Rakesh juna's optimism and I noticed that even UD Muki was not so sure that that Legacy will be continued if those legacies are picked up and continued then clearly the way in which the markets have reacted today could be the longer term reaction as well but it is left to us as Citizens and the future heads in the central bank and in the government to ensure that sensible policies laid down sensible goals and institutions laid down like uh bringing inflation down like moving the monetary policy decision- making from one person to a group of people that you call the bluff of bankers and big conglomerates when bad loans are not recognized if these institutions are continued clearly the markets don't have much to worry we wrap up BZ
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