저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
베네수엘라 사태 후 지정학 리스크 확대 가능성을 언급하며 중국의 대만 압박 강화 가능성을 경고. 시장은 지정학 위기를 매수 기회로 보는 태도를 유지하나 현재는 금을 제외하고 반응이 둔함. 인도는 저렴한 유가 수혜와 무역합의 가능성으로 상승 여지가 있다고 봄(밸류에이션 부담은 존재). 금은 4,400달러대에서 2026년 말 6,000달러, 2029년 10,000달러 전망, S&P500 2029년 10,000 전망과 동행 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
Well, Ed Yardeni president of Yardeni research is with us now. Ed, good morning. Great to have you with us here. You know, incredible events over the weekend Ed. And uh Let's just talk about the effect, right? We talk about oil etc. in just a bit, but the broader message I was saying earlier and this is what I think that it'll have a chilling effect across across the world, right?
I mean, if you who wants to end up like the president of Venezuela? Especially some of the smaller Latin American countries. Uh so people will start start to take up the US on its first offer and not Do you think so? I mean, fundamentally do you think this changes the game? I think when it comes to geopolitics, we get into a very unpredictable possibilities.
I think the problem is we don't really don't know what's next in Venezuela. We don't know the extent to which uh the Venezuelan government that's left is going to cooperate with the United States or the extent to which the they're not to the extent that the cartel is involved in the power structure there.
They may not be very willing to just kind of roll over and uh move out of Venezuela. So, that could be a complicating issue. Another possibility is that this might lead China to actually increase the pressure on Taiwan. Maybe not invade it, but just continue to accelerate the hostile moves towards Taiwan.
So, there could be adverse consequences as well as some of the positive consequences at least from the point of view of the United States. I mean, clearly it would be good from a from a Trump perspective if carrying a a big stick works. Maybe you don't have to hit hit people anymore. You just have to threaten them after what just happened in Venezuela.
Mhm. And Canada, right? I mean all these are crazy things, but I'm just asking you. Canada for example, a lot of political leaders were saying well, they want our oil. Well, they don't need the oil, right? I mean, they've got they've got Venezuela in that sense. I mean, they don't have it, but for all practical purposes in that sense.
So, what's your sense now? I mean, what happens? It's basically consolidating American influence in that in that entire hemisphere, isn't it? Yes. And and kind of throwing out at least I mean, they'll try to throw out China. Yeah, I think you're correct. I think this is going to increase, consolidate US power in the Latin America and maybe it influence the Canadian some more, but clearly the message is we want to keep other other superpowers out.
We don't want the Chinese meddling in in Latin America and they have been in Latin America in a big way uh running ports in the Panama Canal, building production facilities in in Mexico. So, this is a clear message to China in particular that we don't we don't want to want them to play in our playground.
And the same thing for Russia. We don't want the Russians uh in Cuba. We don't want the Russians supporting Venezuela. We want everybody out. On the other hand, we're not going to be necessarily even Steven about it in the sense that we certainly don't want the Chinese to invade Taiwan. And that's the question is can the United States impose this Monroe doctrine that we had back when President Monroe insisted on the United States having sole superpower status in this hemisphere.
Can we now do we have to worry about China saying well, if that's the way you want to play it, if you want to play spheres of influence, all the more reason we should take over Taiwan. So, it's it's a dangerous game in geopolitics and we'll see how it plays out. But I think the stock market still has the attitude that uh geopolitical crises are buying opportunities and we can see by the reaction of the markets that are open that we aren't even getting a buying opportunity.
The markets are kind of ignoring the whole thing other than gold. Gold obviously has had a good rally on it. And it's now the Don Road doctrine, right? A portmanteau of Monroe and Donald Trump. But US can exert influence in its sphere which extends to same, you know, Latin America, Mexico, etc. But as you said, just harping back on the China Taiwanese market because it goes back to what Xi Jinping said in his New Year address.
The reunification with Taiwan is unstoppable now. And if China gets control of say the semis in, you know, Taiwan TSMC, the implications for AI are profound. China can very well, you know, justify its own actions in Taiwan saying that if you can cause a regime change in your sphere of influence, so can we.
So, what kind of a geopolitical landscape are we entering 2026? And what does it mean for various asset classes? Well, geopolitically it's all quite quite dangerous the game that everybody seems to be playing around the world here. The United States is certainly getting stretched. I mean, on Friday President Trump warned that the Iranians that if they shoot any protesters, he basically implied that we're going to go over there and start shooting.
And we just what was it? A week or two ago the United States uh bombed some jihadist camps in Nigeria. So, this is the peace president. But on the other hand, he's certainly demonstrating America's military power around the world. But China may view this as a as a as a sign of weakness that if they open up another front and that they really do attack or put a blockade around Taiwan that the US will be pretty much occupied in lots of other parts of the world and won't be able to give it full attention.
Of course, the Chinese economy is not in good shape. It's not clear that China is going to take this as an opportunity to invade Taiwan. I hope they don't uh but it's it's a it's a tough call the way things are going. Hi Ed, good morning and good to see you. Well, Ed, you've been very very bullish on gold and numerous times, you know, when you have joined us, you've been talking about the possibility of gold trending up if I'm not mistaken.
I think you don't rule out that gold doubles from here say in the next four or five years or so as well. So, your view on gold as an asset class and also you know, what do you make of Trump's comments with regard to India and those tariffs? Social media is a buzz both ways that either there's a deal coming or maybe a deal is far-fetched.
What's your take on that? Well, I think with regards to to India first, it seems to me that uh India is going to win here from what's just happened in Venezuela. It seems to me that you know, the price of oil didn't react immediately to the to the downside. It's down a bit and OPEC is still planning on maintaining their production, but uh there's a real possibility that the price of oil is really going to take a dive in which case India would be big beneficiary cuz then India really doesn't need Russia.
They can India can get plenty of cheap oil in the global market in that kind of scenario and can come back to the US ambassador and then talk to Trump and say we're not buying any oil anymore and can we have a deal now? And so, I think what we're seeing in the Indian market is some consolidation at at the at the record highs and I think if in fact trade deal is worked out, which I think it will be and India has access to to cheaper oil then the prospects are for the Indian market to go higher in my opinion.
I did think it would consolidate in 2025, which is what it's done and now I think we're ready to move higher recognizing of course that the valuation multiple is high and so the upside may be somewhat limited. With regards to gold, yeah, since the beginning of last year when the gold rose above 3,000, I said I thought it was going to go to 4,000 by the end of 2025.
We rose a bit above above that. We're running around 4,400 now. I I had been thinking we get to 5,000 by the end of 2026 this year. Now I'm thinking more like 6,000 and still predicting 10,000 by 2029. Now, having said all that there's no magic model that I have here to to value gold and to predict where it's going other than seeing a very interesting relationship between the S&P 500 and gold.
They do tend to go in the same trends. And if I'm right that earnings will take the S&P 500 to 10,000 by the end of 2029, I think gold can get there as well. Okay, all right. Ed, we leave it there. Thank you very much for joining us and good speaking with you in very very interesting times unprecedented in more ways than one. We'll do
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