TOM LEE: $GRNY benefitted from benign June inflation and from AI & Crypto $MSTR $HOOD $AMD $PLTR

요약 보기

6월 근원 CPI(0.23%, 예상 0.26%)와 근원 PPI 음수 등 인플레 지표가 완화적이었고, 베이지북도 대체로 긍정적이라 인플레 우려는 과도하다고 봄. S&P500 PE는 2019년 6월보다 낮아 멀티플 상승 여지가 있다고 주장. 이번 주 상위 종목은 AI 관련(AMD, 테슬라, 팔란티어, 엔비디아)과 비트코인 관련(MSTR, HOOD)이 주도. 전반적으로 강세적 시각.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. portfolio manager of Fund Strat's US Large Cap Ranny Shots ETF. This is our update for the week of July 17th. First, I just want to give you some particulars. As of July 16th, the price of Granny Shots was 2301, net asset value of $23 and total assets of 1.76 billion. Over the past week, Granny Shots has gained 1.16% compared to an the S&P up just 0.03% or relative outperformance of 113 basis points.

02. And 797 basis points and gained uh 1443 basis points of outperformance since April. Uh I'm going to start with a little macro and I think the theme for the week there's a lot happening but I think this the real theme is markets were looking for signs of inflation because we know Feder Powell was warning about inflation starting to come up in the June CPI reports.

03. So this week there were three inflation related reports um that I want to comment on. The first is June core CPI. Now that actually came in better than expected because it came in at 0.23 23 versus 26. Um now there's some folks who would say that inflation accelerated in June. Uh but and that's true to an extent because goods prices did actually rise and um something like window and floor coverings you can see have increased because of tariffs.

04. But keep in mind this is the fifth consecutive CPI report where the the reported number came in below consensus expectations. So um I think it's really a matter of perspective. The second number is core PPI which came out on Wednesday and that was a negative number versus the street expecting a positive number.

05. Now this is important because that's the leading edge of inflation. Producers are the ones that are going to be first experiencing higher tariff related costs and PPI was negative. So, um, and as you can see, that's a pretty impressive number, and there's easier comps coming up when you look at the year ago.

06. So, as we get through the rest of the next four months, the year-over-year could actually be declining. So, not much inflation in the PPI. And then we had the Fed beige book for July. And again, this is a Fed collecting comments from all the local businesses. and a a pretty good summary came from vital knowledge but you know they view it as a net positive uh economic activity picked up and and the data scientist team at Funstrat kind of compared this trends of the beigebook by region and overall um more regions are reporting better activity whether it's economic activity economic outlook lower prices or better employment and a few are worse but on balance it's positive So, I'd call that half full.

07. So, from a inflation perspective, I think it was a victory for those that think inflation isn't a problem. And this continues to be one of the most hated V-shaped rallies. And that's why I think the bullbacks remain shallow. Something we've talked about. And maybe more importantly, the S&P 500 companies prove that they are relatively indestructible.

08. survived the COVID shutdown, the bow supply chain effect, the inflation cycle of 2022, fastest Fed hikes in in history, the 2025 tariff, global disruption, and of course, the US bombing Iran. And yet, despite all of this, the equate S&P PE is lower today than it was in June 2019. I think after surviving all these various um black swans, I think the multiple should be increasing.

09. Now let's talk about stock performance of the individual components of the granny shots. I think the theme here was really AI is driving a lot of the improvements in the performance. So let's look at the top performers u granny this week out of the seven four the top seven were AI related names AMD, Tesla, Palanteer and Nvidia.

10. Um and I think it was aided by the fact that the US is lifting the ban on chip sales. But uh additionally um two names topping list Micro Strategy and Robin Hood are actually Bitcoin related. And um Bitcoin broke to an all-time high this week. That's positive of course for Micro Strategy and for Robin Hood which is getting into crypto.

11. And the bottom five five performers um leading among the the worst is names like FICO um which we know has been a chronic problem because of what's happening in Washington. Here's uh the best performing theme for the week. It's millennials um led by Micro Strategy, Robin Hood and Tesla. Um the second best is global labor suppliers which uh is AI related and um and the third is uh the PMI recoveries. So that's it for now. Thank you for listening and I'll speak to you soon.