저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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결론: 미국 실업수당 청구건수 10년래 최고 수준이지만 Yardeni는 노동시장이 여전히 견조하다고 보며 Fed는 과도하게 공격적으로 움직이지 말아야 한다는 입장이다. 시장 반응: 초기 고용지표 발표 때는 금리 인상 둔화 기대로 채권·주식이 긍정적으로 반응했으나, SVB 은행 문제와 암호화폐 시장 악재로 은행주가 급락하며 증시가 밀렸다. Fed 전망: 파월 의장 발언은 매파적이며 금리 인상 종료는 아직 멀어 보인다. 파월의 어조는 최신 데이터에 따라 바뀌는 경향이 있다. Yardeni는 Fed가 2025년까지 인플레이션을 2%로 낮추려는 목표를 지지하며 긴축 수준을 유지하고 시간을 주어야 한다고 본다. 노동시장 분석: 빅테크(알파벳, 애플, 메타 등)의 대규모 감원이 진행 중이지만 해고자는 퇴직금을 받아 실업수당을 바로 신청하지 않으며 곧 재취업할 수 있다. 의료·요식업 등에서는 노동 수요가 여전히 크다. 구조적 요인: 베이비붐 세대의 고령화로 요양·의료 수요와 외식 수요가 증가해 해당 부문 인력 부족이 나타난다. 인도 시장: 전일 자동차 업종 하락과 함께 Nifty, Nifty Bank 관련 숏 포지션 증가와 롱 청산이 나타났다. 출연자 전망: 명시적인 자산별 가격 예측은 없고 Fed 금리 정책과 노동시장 관련 견해가 중심이다.
다듬은 글
throw some light on what the global talking points as well are this morning we have Ed yini joining in uh right now Ed hi good morning and good evening to you thanks for staying up for us uh just wanted to understand uh the US jobless uh jobless claims at a 10we high and clearly not going down well with the street well I I think uh at first when the initial unemployment data came out uh it showed that there was a slight increase and uh the bond market and the stock market uh greeted it rather well because uh you know we're now rooting for for bad news because good news is bad uh we're rooting for a Slowdown in the economy a slow down in the labor market so that the FED doesn't continue to raise interest rates I think what really uh hit the market hard was of course the sell-off in the banks which is related to uh the svb bank problem um as well as some more problems in the cryptocurrency market you know also throwing light thene on what jeram Powell's commentary was uh pretty hawkish one would say and it doesn't seem like you know the FED is quite done with the interest rate hikes right well you know he it seems as though every time he speaks he kind of one time he's seems more hawkish the next time he seems less less hawkish uh back on February 1st when he gave his press conference he mentioned the word dis inflation several times and everybody concluded that he had turned less hawkish it seems as though he's kind of changing his tune depending on what the latest set of data says I hope the FED kind of sticks to its commitment uh to raise interest rates to a reasonably restrictive level keep them there and then let let them work it's going to take some time the fed the FED has actually said that uh on a consensus basis they would like to get the um inflation rate down to 2% in 2025 I think that's very reasonable but they shouldn't Panic here with every single economic indicator and move more aggressively than they've already said that they would uh yet I look at uh the jobless data and then I compare with what the US uh major tech companies are doing they are in a process of layoff where the alphabet or whether it is Apple or even for that matter Facebook stroke meta so one side the US economy is losing high in jobs but the labor market conditions are still not looking sticky they're still vibrant so are we looking at the real relevant jobs data well it's a very complicated job market uh we certainly are hearing about lots of uh layoffs in the tech industry and by the way they're Global layoffs so it's not all in the United States and the other thing thing is uh a lot of those people who are getting losing their jobs get a severance P package they get some money uh when they go out the door and so they don't immediately go and file for unemployment claims and some of them may very well find a job very quickly because they they have skills that are still needed maybe if not in one company then in another company where we're seeing a tremendous amount of uh demand for labor is in the hospital and Health Care sector and of course in the uh Food Services sector I think some of this may actually be related to the Aging of the Baby Boomers you know the Baby Boomers are getting older they're retiring they're moving into retirement homes and uh they don't like to cook cook for themselves uh so there's been a tremendous increase in demand for uh for restaurants and as a result uh we have a shortage of restaurant workers and the same thing goes for the Health Care System uh the Baby Boomers are kind of overwhelming the Health Care system and there just aren't enough employees to satisfy all that demand so some of this is demographically related in my opinion yeah it sure is Ed great to have you on the show thank you so much for taking the time out and joining in well um whatever may be the reason uh after that employment data or jobless uh data which is coming at a 10 year high the equity markets are not taking that down too well down about almost 1% for the s chft as well and after yesterday that sharp fall which came in for our markets in the last lap of yesterday's trading session snapping the 3-day winning streak for the index and Autos clearly uh they were the ones which dragged quite a fair bit while Metals just marginally managed to lend support for us you are seeing some fresh shorts in the Nifty and long unwinding when it comes to the Nifty Bank
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