저자: PraveenIyer · 외국인
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결론: 인도 항공 산업은 수요 회복과 공급 확대로 장기 성장이 이어질 것이며, 아카사항공도 대규모 주문과 국제선 진출을 준비 중이라는 취지의 인터뷰다. 국내선 수요: 국내선 항공 트래픽은 팬데믹 이전 수준을 상회하며, 여행(레저)과 출장(기업) 수요가 함께 회복 중이라고 진단. 단위당 수익(yield): 3~4루피 수준에서 최근 3분기 연속 5루피 이상을 유지. 발언자는 이 수준의 지속 가능성에 대해 특별한 이유가 없다고 봄. 공급 지표: 2020년 2월 하루 약 3,200편이던 국내선은 현재 3,000~3,100편 수준. 여름 스케줄에는 3,200~3,300편까지 증가 전망. 공급은 팬데믹 이전 수준 회복 단계. 수요 전망: 국내외 합산 2억 명 승객이 2027년 약 4억 명, 2030년 약 5억 명으로 증가 전망. 향후 1~2년 내 업계의 적정 수준 따라잡기 예상. 항공기 주문 및 경쟁: 에어인디아, 인디고의 대규모 주문을 언급. 발언자는 주문이 8~10년에 걸쳐 인도되며, 승객 성장이 항공사 증가 공급을 흡수할 수 있다고 주장. 아카사는 연말 전에 현재보다 훨씬 큰 세 자릿수 규모의 신규 주문 발표 예정이라고 언급. 성장률 및 인프라: 향후 10년간 연 12~18%의 두 자릿수 성장 기대. 모파, 나비뭄바이, 자와르 등 신규 공항 확충 언급. 국제선 계획: 연말 무렵 항공기 20대 확보 및 승인 획득 후 국제선 운항 개시 계획. 걸프·중동, 극동 방면 옵션 검토 중이나 구체 목적지는 미정. 시장 구조: 인디고 50% 이상, 타타그룹 25%, 나머지 3사가 잔여 점유율. 발언자는 향후 3~5년간 일부 통합은 이미 진행 중이며 신규 진입자도 여지가 있다고 봄. 회사 초점은 점유율보다 고객 경험과 직원 중심 조직이라고 강조. 고 라케시 준준왈라 관련: 공동창업자 준준왈라의 인도 10년 장기 성장 전망과 '직원·고객 행복'이라는 경영 목표를 회고. 최근 주가 조정 언급하며 장기적 상승을 낙관하는 취지의 발언 포함. 리스크·조건: 주문 인도 지연, 항공기 공급 및 승인 일정 변수 존재(발언에서 명시적 리스크 언급은 제한적).
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but a lot has been happening in the hospitality sector and especially Aviation is something which has been seeing increased amount of um passenger load Factor sector as well let's have a chat going with Mr PR Aya the co-founder and chief commercial officer at aasa a to understand how the trends are panning out in the aviation industry hi thank you so much for making time and speaking with ET now today just wanted to ask you about the domestic air traffic because that's now considerably above the pre-o levels even in a lean period uh what is supporting this is it the Leisure track which is back or even corporate travel is something which is picking up well it's a combination of both uh I would say Leisure Travel is playing a significant part in this so is the corporate traffic like we all know till about last year there was a lot of work from home hardly meetings happening uh between cities uh but now people are moving traveling uh so it's a combination of both Leisure and corporate I would say uh let's also talk about the business internals then because for a quite a long time the yields were hovering around that 3 to four rupe per unit Mark and now for the past three quarters they have sustained over five five rupee per unit um what could be a sustainable number you believe going forward no reason why it won't uh India is an extremely uh strong growth Market uh and let me give you some statistics around pre-co versus today way back in Feb 2020 India domestic had close to 3200 flights a day uh what's come down to today is about 30 3,000 to 3,100 as we get into the summer sced which is the first quarter of the next financial year you will see that this may probably go up to 3200 3300 what this essentially means is that the capacity deployment is still at pre-co levels and this is over a period of 3 and a half years and considering the future of the industry uh we are at about 200 million OD passengers between domestic and international likely to get to about 400 by 2027 500 million by 2030 that essentially means that over the next one or two years we are catching up with what should be the ideal gagger for the industry so I see things holding up quite well uh on the domestic Market especially okay sounding quite promising um but Pine what's the Outlook given the fact that we just recently had the news that Air India placed the largest ever aircraft order Indigo also had a large order in place is there going to be a market share war going ahead or will passenger growth according to you be strong enough in order to support this so again I'll go back to what I mentioned a little earlier if 200 million passengers will grow to 400 million passengers over a period of 5 years that essentially means the number of aircraft of deployment has to go up from 700 to 11 1200 at least and if you add these orders up that's exactly the number that we're talking about but mind you these orders are coming over a period of 8 to 10 years that essentially means we will see a strong growth uh for the sector uh you will continue to see higher occupancies for Airlines and we have enough and more uh demand available out there to absorb all the capacity that's going to come in over the next few years be it any carrier including AA okay fair enough and what's the kind of Passenger growth then that you're expecting over the next few years so the kager that we are expecting over the next decade or so uh is double digit uh it's going to be anywhere in the region of 12 to 18% the way we see this uh there will be uh significant growth significant capacity as the airports get added to uh mind you we saw uh mopa as the most recent new airport and it's the first of its kind where you will actually start seeing the same city having multiple airports uh we have javer coming up we have Nai Mumbai coming up towards 2425 so clearly there is enough and more infrastructure available uh enough and more capacity getting added and we'll continue to see this growth uh through the next decade not just a couple of years well there has been a lot of these fresh orders as well that the avation companies has made right uh starting with that 400 plus order coming in from Air India itself and you to had placed an order for around 72 aircraft right given the strong growth expected um are you looking at beefing up the pipeline further yes in fact we announced it earlier uh We've we've talked about this a few times you will see us place a bigger order uh by the end of this year uh and and uh speculations are on but we can guarantee you it's going to be a three-digit order uh the last order was 72 aircraft and the New Order that that we will place uh towards the end of this year is going to be much larger than what we have already placed about a year and a half back so yes you will see us place an order pretty soon and we'll talk about it at the right time oh well absolutely we'll wait back to hear on that three-digit order that you're likely to play soon but as soon as you get two more aircraft and that is expected to happen soon you will be eligible to fly International as well uh what's the plan uh about going International is that something which is in the pipeline as well so towards the end of this year that's the other announcement that we'll make uh one is the aircraft Auto which I talked about uh you will also uh see an international operations that we start towards the end of this year uh several options available with the 737 Max aircraft that we operate uh in a radius of 5 hours there are mult multiple destinations available but it's too early to really comment about any specific destination but we have options available towards the Gulf Middle East uh we have options available towards the far east as well and again at the right time once we have the 20 aircraft uh on boarded and we have uh the right approvals in place we will talk about our International destination as well sure and finally you know Prine there are five big players in the industry Indigo does Corner over half the market Tata group controls another 25% and the remaining three have the balance what's your outlook in terms of market share do you think that this Dynamic will change is there likely to be more consolidation in the Indian Skies so consolidation uh in whatever shape and form in my view has already happened uh with with two uh players uh placing those orders and talking about uh the the shares that they have been uh but but having said that clearly uh there is room for more players uh there is room uh for other carriers as well uh let's face it India is a 200 million market today growing to 400 million uh over the next 5 years that essentially means you will need more players uh the existing players alone cannot satisfy the demand that we are seeing out there and the kind of growth potential that the industry is is going to witness uh so clearly whatever consolidation in my view for the next 3 to 5 years give or take here and there is is already something which we have witnessed uh it's only the existing players and some new players that you will see adding up over the next few years okay and what is uh you know going to be aasa's Focus then is it going to be market share or is it going to be profitability well well uh let's face it we want to give an option to the customer for the best product on board uh and overall customer experience to be the best uh we have been successful so far but it's a long road uh we we are happy with what we have seen so far uh let's face it at the end of the day uh all these parameters that you talked about matter uh and our Focus would be to just provide an employee Centric organization and a customer focused Enterprise which gives you the best choice uh up in the air on ground as well that's our primary focus uh and that's going to be our primary focus through the next few years as well uh well akasa is also remembered for your co-founder rakes janala right and he was actively engaged in the business of uh building up the airline as well I wanted to get a sense from you what's the most that you miss with respect to the interactions that you had and is there any advice that you have been missing out on well he's he's he's one of a kind I don't think uh I don't think it's just us who miss him I think the nation misses him uh for his foresight uh for his bullishness about India in general the one thing that I will always remember and it will remain close to my heart and that's actually being witnessed by India and that is he may he kept highlighting that the next 10 years will be India's massive transformation and we've already started seeing that uh with the kind of growth that you see in the economy uh with the kind of uh with the kind of high disposable income that India is generating uh the share market is down a little but it's definitely going to move up but his foresightedness and his ability to predict what's coming I think it's absolutely remarkable and he has predicted the next 10 years is going to be the best for the country and we will had the maximum amount of employment with more and more uh employment being created thanks to the way India is going to grow okay but um you're right the nation entirely misses him and um that's a huge loss but is there any Target that he set for you which you guys are aiming to achieve his only target was have a happy employee have a family that's running with a smile have a setup where your people are happy internally and your people are happy externally that's his only Moto and that's his only objective that he set for us as an Enterprise and like I said we all miss him the nation misses him uh I wish he was around uh to see some of these achievements and and how people in general around us are happy and moving mov towards that common objective that he set for us which is to keep uh the internal employees happy and even the customers happy at all points in time all right it's been great great having you on board thanks so much for taking time out and joining in PR just giving us a sense of what the Indian aviation industry could look like and of course your flight plan
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