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증시가 크게 오르며 다우지수는 트럼프 재선 이후 두 번째로 좋은 하루를 기록했다. 캐토연구소의 스콧 링컴은 캘리포니아 부유세 무산, 시장 변동성 지수(VIX) 급락, 여야가 나뉜 분점정부가 대통령 권력을 견제한다는 점을 상승 요인으로 꼽았다. 투자자들이 이란 전쟁 종결 기대도 반영한 것으로 분석된다. 워싱턴 기자 존 하우드는 법치와 정실 자본주의 견제가 장기적으로 기업에도 이롭다고 보았다. 또 정부 지분을 가진 41개 기업과 일론 머스크 관련 의회 조사 가능성도 거론됐다.
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business today the markets are about to open after actually they are they're already up 330 in the last 17 seconds after stocks surged yesterday the Dow recorded its second best day since President Trump was reelected for for months Donald Trump has tried to equate the market with the economy warning that stocks would tank without him he's Mr.
Market but yesterday investors proved him wrong they made it abundantly clear that they welcome a massive check on presidential power and the push pull of a divided government that this country prioritizes respecting the rule of law with functioning elections and democracy and investors are hopeful the Iran war will come to an end joining me now Scott Lincecombe vice president of general economics at the Cato Institute and veteran Washington correspondent John Harwood he's a distinguished fellow at Duke University and a columnist for Zeteo on Substack we normally don't get into the nitty-gritty on stocks but I want to today because Scott I want to start with what do you make of this surge?
Because Donald Trump has argued like he's the reason stocks are up right we know that the corporate permanent corporate tax cuts were and he's going to say again we have three separate but equal branches of government and our elections work they took it as a huge positive plus the idea that maybe we could have an end to this war yeah i think um there's a few things going on uh you hit on few of them uh i'd start simply with the california wealth tax actually ending which i think would have disrupted a lot of tech companies VC activity out in california but beyond that i think you're exactly right uh investors hate uncertainty uh they hate chaos uh and if you look uh while the stock indices went up yesterday the vix which measures stock market volatility collapsed and i think that uh just simply having a little more certainty a little less chaos is uh very good for markets and for investors um the other thing though is look divided government is uh oftentimes a very good thing um it is a check on the president's worst impulses um and that includes by the way the federal reserve uh maybe on tariffs and trade um and maybe on the iran war and i think again investors cheer that um when you have an unbridled president trump i think that's a scary thing uh and now you have a pretty big check and i think finally that check is even stronger because of the margins here if democrats had just eked out uh small wins well then uh you you know, they can, it'll be difficult to pass really anything, as we've seen with Republican margins recently.
So that I think also gives investors a little boost. There's a very interesting AI story to tell. We actually have a voter question for you. We actually have a voter question THE DATA CENTERS, THE FINANCIAL PROPPING UP OF A .I. TECH STOCKS? JOHN, I THINK IT'S INTERESTING BECAUSE IF YOU ACTUALLY LOOK YESTERDAY, YOU HAD COMPANIES THINGS LIKE APPLE, META, AMAZON, SOME OF SORT OF THOSE BIG TECH COMPANIES, THEIR STOCKS ACTUALLY WENT UP BUT THEN OTHERS I'M LOOKING AT ORACLE AND THOSE THAT HAVE TAKEN ON A HUGE AMOUNT OF DEBT WITH SPENDING, WE CAN'T HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO REGULATION THAT POTENTIALLY SOME OF THE SMARTEST AND BEST COMPANIES IN THIS LANE ARE GOING TO START TO WORK WITH STITIES, STATES, MUNICIPALITIES FIGURING OUT HOW TO BUILD AI CENTERS IN A SMART THOUGHTFUL WAY, THEY ARE OUR FUTURE BUT WHAT WE DON'T WANT IS AI CENTERS WILLY-NILLY DUMPED IN PEOPLE'S BACKYARDS WITH NO UPSIDE FOR THOSE communities.
I agree with that, Steph. I do not think the results are going to burst an AI bubble at this moment. And I think Democrats will follow on a lane that politics was going anyway to have some restrictions. I also agree with everything Scott said about market reaction, and certainly gridlock is often welcomed by the markets.
But I think it goes deeper, and you alluded to this in the intro. If I were a corporate executive waking up today on my birthday, as I did today, I would think that America has given me a very large present. And that is this, free market capitalism is a very powerful thing. But it depends on the rule of law.
And it depends on, you know, Trump talks about lack of regulation, but the crony capitalism, the corruption that Donald Trump has brought into the economic system with a vengeance in this term is a form of regulation. And I think what you're going to see from Democrats is they are going to try to put the brakes on the perversions of the rule of law, the crony capitalism, the corruption.
And that is something that even if business leaders weren't bold enough to stand up for on themselves, they're going to welcome that occurring and it's going to be good for them in the long run. Crony capitalism, perversion of the rule of law takes me to my next question, Scott. There were some stocks that tumbled yesterday, and I'm looking at Tesla and SpaceX.
Elon Musk actually took to his own platform and deleted some of his old posts that were encouraging people to vote Republican. It is likely that Musk could face congressional investigations now that Democrats are in charge. How much of an impact could this have on his companies that are deeply tangled in our government?
Yeah, I think it's a really interesting question and something to watch is how companies, whether voluntarily or involuntarily that have for the last two years really cozyed up to the administration, have catered to the president's political demands, are now going to face pushback investigations from Congress.
And Musk is certainly in that group, but I would add in a lot of the companies that now have the government as an equity investor. You know, we're now up to 41 of those companies that have some sort of equity stake. And I think Congress will be looking into those deals, looking into their connections with the Trump administration, with the Trump family, with others in that orbit.
And all of that, I think, is not just a good thing, but pretty inevitable that Congress is going to want to take a role as well they should. And let's be clear, not just the Trump family, the Lutnik family, the Whitcoff family. When we look at those 41 companies that the government is invested in, what I'm most interested in seeing is was there an investment bank that arranged those deals and was that investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald which Howard Lutnick was the CEO of and it's now being run by his children, his sons.
Steph can I make one other point about Elon? Yes, yes. I think that one thing you can bank on is that there's going to be a very strong effort by Democrats in this Congress, and perhaps in the next administration if a Democrat wins, to prevent Starlink from being used and manipulated in the way it has been in the Russia-Ukraine war.
I don't know how exactly that constraint would work, whether it would be somehow nationalized or taken by the government, but I do not believe that Democrats are going to allow Elon Musk to be an independent player in American foreign policy the way he seems to have been in this conflict.
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