저자: My Financial Friend · 외국인
요약 보기
이 영상은 오늘 시장 급락의 배경과 파라과이 우노에노 은행 폐쇄 사태를 중심으로 정리한 시장 해설이다. 진행자는 QQQ가 3% 이상 하락하고 마이크론과 퀄컴 등 AI 관련 종목이 크게 빠진 점을 짚으며, AI 투자 테마에 대한 두려움과 데이터센터 건설 둔화 우려가 주된 원인이라고 설명한다. 비트코인은 7만 8,800달러 부근에서 등락했고 약 1억 3천만 달러 규모의 롱 포지션이 청산됐다고 언급했다. 파라과이 사태에 대해서는 중앙은행이 우노에노 은행을 폐쇄해 성인 60%가 이용하던 은행의 예금 출금이 제한되고, 뮤추얼펀드 13개의 출금이 동결되며, 중앙은행 총재의 사임과 은행 임원 체포 명령이 이어졌다고 전했다. 이를 근거로 비트코인을 직접 보관하는 것의 의미를 강조했다. 아마존과 마이크로소프트, 구글, 메타 같은 빅테크 기업을 장기적으로 선호한다는 입장도 밝혔다. 다만 영상 자체가 투자 조언이 아님을 명시하고 있으며, 영상 내 일부 링크는 제휴 링크라고 고지한다. 영상에는 특정 거래소 가입을 권유하는 내용도 포함되어 있어 시청자는 이를 주의해서 볼 필요가 있다.
다듬은 글
How's it going everyone? It's Sam. There's a bank that's shutting down right now. It's literally shutting down and only giving people part of their money back. It's causing a nationwide crisis uh in this country that we will talk about. We also have Tom Lee talking about the big rally yesterday. At the same time, we're crashing today.
Like Bitcoin's down a few thousand, not not crazy for Bitcoin, but the QQQ is down 4% right now. Uh we have stocks like Micron that are down to what is it a 4p ratio something like that under 10 for the trailing 10 uh the trailing 12 months. We have stocks crashing today. We also have something big that happened for Bitcoin that we have not seen in a long time.
Um which is pretty cool. Uh and I realize some people are going to say ah it doesn't matter the price is going down. No this is actually it matters long term for the next bull market. Well, uh, watch the Tom Lee video towards the end and hit on everything else, uh, in the market. I literally have people texting me right now about the market.
So, let's talk about all that if you don't mind. Hit subscribe so you can see future videos. Just QQQ is down 3% at this point. Um, and it's like straight down since the market opened. As you can see, oil's up a little bit. The VIX is up, you know, 5%. Not anything huge, but it pretty much spiked right at open.
As we can see here, Bitcoin still holding right around 78,800. Um, it's come down though. We were over 80,000 most of yesterday and uh, yeah, we were even over a little while ago and we're falling down now. You can see $130 million worth of longs liquidated. You got to be careful whenever we move up very quickly in one direction.
Uh, a lot of people, you know, like to like to put in long positions or put in shorts after we've already moved, which I don't always think is the best idea. Usually, you do it right when we hit support, which is what I talked about just a few days ago when I opened up this long position right at the 50we moving average.
I think that's the best thing to do. Now, if you do want to trade, by the way, there are links to Bidfi underneath the video. There's a deposit bonus going on right now where you can get up to $2,000. It's in the link tree. But let's keep moving. Um, we have stocks sinking very quickly. I mean, the QQQ, okay, now it's down 3.3%.
Um, it's down obviously, but there are stocks that are still up slightly. Like Amazon was just up last time I looked, uh, Mastercard's up. So, there are, you know, AI related companies, they're down much more than the QQQ. Qualcomm is sinking 14% at the open, set for the worst day since 2020. Uh, Micron, one of the darlings of the stock market, is down 9% here today.
Down to the lowest level I remember seeing in a while. Actually, yeah, lower than the low in July. You have to go back to May to see lower prices. Uh, year to date, it's still up 131%. And if you go over last year, up 207%, but from the peak, down 40%. So, a significant pullback. And, you know, the underlying fundamentals are just getting better.
You can see over the last year their revenue is up 380% and they've hit record numbers in every facet uh over the last couple quarters. Um Nvidia down significantly today as well. Let's reload this. As you can see, down to 192, down 4%. Down to a 14 Ford uh PE ratio with revenue growing 105% year-over-year.
To be clear, these are not the kinds of companies that I invest in. Uh, and I've said that many times on the channel. I'm not investing in the bottleneck companies. I'm not investing in the pure play AI companies. I'm investing in the Amazon's, Microsoft, Google, and Metas of the world. And all of those are actually up since uh the midterm elections uh pretty significantly.
But uh these are the companies I like to invest in because I think they're going to be the long-term winners from AI. And we saw them pump up yesterday because of the election results. People thinking that data centers are going to be harder and harder to build, which negatively affects companies like Nvidia.
But some people might make the case, well, it's better for Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft because they won't be able to build as much. They won't spend as much. They'll have more free cash flow and that kind of thing. Um, now a company that I saw announced earnings that's still just doing fantastic, uh, Melly.
They grew revenue by 45%. Um, they're still growing very quickly, but Wall Street just doesn't like the fact that they don't focus on profitability. They're down 13 or 14%. This is one that I hold. It's a small position for me, but I would be very interested in adding more to it at the right price. I think we're very close to that price.
Now, why is the market down so much? I think it just comes down to people being fearful over the AI trade, right? That's the main thing. People are really worried about the AI trade unraveling, which has caused so much extra profitability in VO uh or in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. You know, the largest companies we just talked about are down significantly.
They're really dragging down the rest of the market. And I think that's because of uh this push to stop um you know, stop building data centers. I think this will change over time. Um, and if it doesn't, my single stock companies are still going to do extremely well, but this does seem overblown for Let's switch to Bitcoin for a second.
A couple interesting things about Bitcoin. Um, I forgot to mention this in the intro, but there there's a bank that's shutting down uh withdrawals or like not giving people their money back. So, we'll talk about that in a second. Um, one of the major reasons to hold Bitcoin, especially if you're in a country that maybe isn't as developed or still, I guess even in the US, right, we had a bank closure from a a massive bank recently in the last couple years.
So anywhere you can have this happen. Uh, but yeah, it's more important in some reg regions uh than others. Michael Sailor though says, "We're back." Posting STRC hit $100 yesterday. Apparently, they bought somewhere around 194 bitcoin, at least that's what's estimated. Um, usually that number is a little bit low.
So, maybe 250 300 Bitcoin bought yesterday from STRC. And it also means that they don't have to uh buy back STRC, right? If they're buying $200 million a week and now they don't have to buy, well, then that can go towards Bitcoin or cash on their balance sheet uh or whatever. Now, it's down a little bit today, but still, you know, it's pretty close to $100.
Uh, and I think we've seen just more pullbacks when there's a broader pullback in crypto. People sell STRC and it deps a little bit more than it used to. So, that'll be interesting to see how much they can actually buy over the next couple weeks and months. This is the bank failure. Uh, one bank failure has now turned into a national crisis in Paraguay.
24 hours ago, the central bank shut down Uno Eno Bank, a bank used by 60% of the country's adults. Now the damage is spreading. 13 mutual funds run by five different firms have frozen withdrawals because their money was invested in this bank. Trading and all uh trading in all the unobounds have been suspended.
$380 million from the state pension fund is stuck along with the money from the state's power company. Um, two out of every three card payments at big stores ran through this bank and Paraguay's main importers association says retail is now semi paralyzed. Customers can only get $1,700 for now with no date given for the rest of the payout uh or for the initial payout maybe.
The political fallout is just as big. The central bank chief who used to run the bank has resigned. President Pina Pa uh canceled a foreign trip to deal with the crisis and authorities have ordered the arrest of eight bank executives. Anchor has now reached the streets and widespread protests are happening now.
Uh if you're in Paraguay, let me know down below in the comments. This is just crazy to me. Um but yeah, um this is one of the main reasons to hold Bitcoin, right? At the end of the day, you're supposed to have custody of uh you're supposed to have custody of your Bitcoin. So, this is one of the things that, you know, uh reminds us why we have Bitcoin in the first place.
Of course, if you have if you have Bitcoin in ETFs, that's a different story. that's more of an investment than um you know diversification uh or you know I guess it is a diversification but it's less of a diversification of where you hold your money and um more just for the investment gains but Bitcoin is a great thing to have at least in small amounts outside of the banks so that way you can have access to your capital if you need it in an emergency situation like this.
Uh, one good piece of news here. Amazon is replacing GrubHub with Uber Eats as its restaurant delivery partner for US Prime members. Prime members can now order through Amazon's website or app with $0 delivery fees on Uber Eats of $25 or more. Um, yeah, I like that. I like Amazon. I like Uber Eats. So, that's pretty cool.
And now, let's get to Tom Lee. Lee, he's here at Post9. What do you make of this reaction in the market? Uh, I I think it's healthy. Um, and it's kind of expected. I know a lot of people thought a blue tsunami might be bad for markets, but uh there's many reasons why this is actually a positive outcome for stocks.
I mean, among them was you and Liz covered a lot of that, but one of I think it's going to force Washington to sort of now negotiate, which is a good thing. I think that's actually healthy. But I think one thing that people haven't talked enough about is the fact that this might also take pressure off the Fed.
I think the Fed now can work more independently. we don't have to worry about FOMC members doing credibility hikes. I think that's the reason why markets can also rally pretty strong. If I recall correctly, I think you were one of those who suggested yes, you're going to have a lot of noise on data centers, but you're going to get beyond the election and then it's going to die down as people are politicking a little bit less.
Almost feel like maybe we're going to see the opposite given some of the results, particularly down in in Texas. What do you think now as these stocks are obviously paying a price today? Yeah, I I think there's a knee-jerk reaction because people have to find something to sell to buy uh what they want to own, but you know, as you guys are talking about downstream AI applications, compute's going to get scarce if everyone starts using tokens and then prices will go up and then we're going to talk about bottlenecks again.
And of course, uh there's going to be many states that will welcome uh this investment. So, I I actually think the AI uh as the days pass, the AI trade's very much alive. I think communities really do want money to come in and but just on their terms and I think it's really healthy to talk about AI safety which was a voting issue.
And then look at crypto. Crypto's rallying because as you know the Democrats are now pushing crypto legislation which they opposed just before the midterms. Now they want to actually pass crypto legislation. What if even a Super Bowl like Yeah. Apparently there's some news that they're trying to pass the Clarity Act again.
and Ives is not naive to the issues that now exist regarding data centers. 10% he says will not happen now. What if he's right? Uh well, you know, um he's always bullish like you. Okay. Yes. But AI is going to continue to do astounding discoveries. You know, um the frontier models are solving health problems.
They're going to be solving agricultural issues. This requires compute. It's going to I think the conversation is going to turn towards AI is actually again good for the US. Who's going to turn that conversation cuz I mean we Liz Anne Saunders referenced it. There were like 40 plus ballot measures in various states and they all got voted away.
Yeah. I think every state's going to look at their budgets and realize a lot of the revenues that would come in are for these huge investments uh coming from data centers. I mean, you know, it's going to be hard to find uh other projects that replace the sheer dollars that these things bring in. Like, you know, are the states these 44 states going to bring in a bunch of hotels and car dealerships?
You know, I mean, that's a very saturated market, but data centers bring in real money and a lot of dollars. So, I I think the conversation is is easily going to turn. I do think it's an overreaction today. So the the Citadel note which I referenced earlier, this sets the stage, Scott Robner said, for investors to rebuild equity exposure into year end.
H if they do that, how does that exposure look? Is it is it broad like some are suggesting and maybe the market today is trying to express itself as? Well, I think we have to keep in mind that probably 50% of all hedge funds are TMT uh and technology had a huge correction. I don't think they're going to go out and buy Coca-Cola.
I think they're going to dive back into the tech trade. So to me, I think I I agree with the Citadel note, but I think a lot of this is going to be a a very very strong tech rally that looks like the one we had after the situation awareness selloff. So it's at least 15%. You know, tech could rally 20% from here.
Led by the hyperscalers, which NEM's Laura Martin talks about today, we believe higher regulatory barriers entrench incumbents and increase risks. Hyperscalers are AI incumbents. They're the ones who are going to benefit. That's clearly what the market thinks today. Yeah. So, that's very evident and like they win either way.
Either we build out more and their revenue will go up. You know, I'm talking about Amazon, Microsoft, and Google. Either their revenue will go up um later or or they'll show better cash flows now. And their buildout has been so aggressive. Part of the reason for that, I'm sure they know that there are people that don't want uh there to be more data centers built.
So, they got really aggressive right from the beginning. And I apologize, there's some there's a blower outside, but uh yeah, that's why I really like them as investments. It's one of the many reasons I like those companies as investments. Let me know your thoughts underneath the video. Thank you so much for watching.
I appreciate it. Again, if you do want to trade, there are people literally texting me now about some good investment options um financial advisors that I know actually that are talking about individual stocks that look juicy right now. So, if if you want to trade, check out the links underneath the video.
Thank you so much. I appreciate I'll see you all soon. Just a reminder, this is not financial advice. This is not legal advice. Do your own research. I'm never going to reach out to you either in the comment section or through any other means to try to get you to invest in something that I'm investing in or to send me crypto.
Some links underneath the video are affiliate links. I may earn a commission, but this is at no extra cost to you. Of course, do your own due diligence.
댓글 0