저자: TomLee · 외국인
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실적 주도 랠리로 밸류에이션은 과열 아님, 추세 유효. 다만 향후 3개월 내 Fed 반응, 인플레이션·금리 상승, 대규모 IPO 공급을 리스크로 제시. 기술주 리스크/리워드는 여전히 매력적이나 광범위한 시장은 우려. DRAM/반도체는 방어적 성격으로 강세 지속 전망, 선호는 Mag7·소프트웨어. Ed Yardeni는 S&P 8250 목표 유지(2026년 말 기준, 10년 말까지도 언급).
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This has just gotten a little bit out of hand. You agree? Well, first of all, I I wasn't disappointed with the summit cuz I didn't expect much of anything. I I didn't really believe that there was going to be some sort of amazing deal coming coming out of it. And we are in an earnings-led melt-up. The fundamentals are definitely there for the for what's been happening and so valuation multiples haven't really gotten all that stretched relative to earnings.
And I mean, that's one of the reasons we came back so strongly since the bottom on March 30th as investors suddenly realized that the PE had come down to a large extent because E had gone up to a record high and stocks looked really cheap. So, uh you know, I I I think we have to kind of take out the bumps in in the market and I think the the trend is still very much intact.
But, you heard what the professor said about the idea that investors are making this bet that this earnings ramp is going to go from here to infinity? I mean, you you've been you've been thinking about this. Didn't you call this like the Buzz Lightyear market or something like that the other day? Lightyear theory of in fit to infinity and beyond.
making a mistake thinking what has traditionally, as he said, been a cyclical part of the economy is somehow secular now and and we're just going to project this out from here to, you know, 20 years from now? the AI AI may be a bigger deal than people understand and I think the stock market's kind of hinting at it.
I think, you know, economists usually view the economy as having three main resources: land, capital, and labor. I think data has become a fourth factor of production and we we've all been collecting data, it's been stored away, and we really haven't squeezed it for all it's worth and that's what AI is doing.
It's It's the digital revolution. It started in the 1960s and we've accomplished an amazing ability to process a huge amount of data really quickly, really cheaply. And as we continue to do that, guess what? We create more data. There'll be never a shortage of data. Tom, how how do you assess this? Um well, I agree that uh the US is benefiting the next 3 years, maybe even 10, 20 years from its leadership in AI.
Uh But I I kind of agree with Professor Siegel that, you know, if I look at the next 3 months, so not 3 years, I do think three tests are emerging for the stock market. You know, one is, of course, how is the Fed going to react to both uh the underlying inflation risks. Um the second is the market doesn't really like when inflation is a concern and yields are rising and I do think you we are seeing it now in PPI.
I think there is in the pipeline a lot of inflation, not structural, but just inflation shock, but also energy shortage. And the third, of course, is, you know, I I think we're we have a lot of IPO and that's a lot of supply. So, I I think we're going to face some tests later this summer. So, I think the risk reward is still great for tech, but I'm not sure about the broader market.
How How would you respond to that? I mean, the market, some have suggested has been whistling past the graveyard of this tremendous move that we've seen in oil and now you have yields joining it and you've had some of the inflation data this week get a little alarming. Have we been doing just that, ignoring what's right in front of our face?
And And there's going to be a comeuppance as a result? Tom's views is very plausible that we we may have a stretch here of a few weeks, maybe if a few months, uh where the where the market consolidates. Uh we we just had a pretty significant pullback in the market uh from the beginning of the year, basically, really from October of 20 uh of 2024.
Uh sorry, I told when the uh the the the the the big cap stocks the had a really quite a significant sell-off and so I you know we we've had we have we've already had the pullback. I guess people would like to have a another opportunities to to buy here. But yeah, I mean there's there's still this issue of the bond yield but I think the bond yield is reflecting a normalization of the economy.
I know but the the parabolic nature of this move SMH up six straight weeks we could end that this week but nonetheless up six straight. The DRAM ETF began this week this week with six and a quarter billion in assets under management finished yesterday with nine and a half billion. It only had 77 billion a month ago.
Nvidia up seven straight days the queues have been up so much they need to fall 12 and a half percent just to get back to the 50-day. And and all of that was triggered by the first quarter earning season which was phenomenal. Uh as Professor Siegel said we I don't think any of us recall a situation where earnings have been surging in such a way other than coming out of a recession.
So the fundamentals are good. Look, I think the bond market is reacting to better than expected economic growth. It does look as though the economy is going to be showing something like three to four percent growth in the second quarter. It was weaker than that in the fourth and the first quarter and some of that had to do with the government shutdown then some really cold weather.
So I I think we're going to be very pleasantly surprised by the strength of the economy and that's what will keep the market going. I feel like Tom you you painted a bit of a conundrum for you perhaps and and maybe other investors when you said yes I I still am bullish on on the AI trade but I don't really like other parts of the market in the environment that we could be in with with inflation in the pipeline as you said and shocks in inflation, nothing structural but nonetheless concerning the rise in oil, the backup in yields, but then if I sit back and I say, well, how can I lean in now to parabolic moves that have already taken place and at the same time I don't like any of these other areas of the market cuz I agree with Tom, then what in the world do I do?
All right. So, Scott, I'm I'm going to say something that might make the audience think I'm uh puzzling, but the move in DRAM, in my opinion, is actually somewhat defensive because we know that if you're worried about inflation and petroleum shortage, uh there's even bigger shortages in memory. So, like people are buying what's going to work even if the macro environment gets tough and I think that's why it makes sense for semis and DRAM to still do really well.
Um and so I think that this pullback is going to be viable there, but to me if someone's trying to make a bigger bet on tech, I think the really attractive risk reward is still mag seven and software and Bill Ackman's buy of Microsoft really reinforces it. That's why software is actually still among our top picks right now.
Well, Ed, last and quick, you're sticking with 8250, your your S&P target for calendar 26? I am and done that sometime by the end of the decade. All right. We'll see you again soon. Thanks. Ed, thank you, Tom. We'll talk to you soon. Mhm.
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