저자: RaamdeoAgrawal/ManishChokhani · 외국인
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2024년 전망: 금리와 정치(선거)가 핵심 변수. 두 출연자 모두 금리가 제로 시대를 벗어나 더 높은 수준으로 간다고 봄. 미국 재정적자와 이자부담이 커서 일본식 장기침체 및 채권시장발 통화 충격 가능성을 경고. 라미 아그라왈: 금리 사이클의 고점 여부는 단정 못 하지만 제로금리 시대는 끝났고 2~5% 수준의 긴축적 자금 환경이 새 기준. 고PER 기업의 조정 가능성 언급. Manish Chokhani: 미 연준 금리 고점은 아직 아니며 파월식 긴축 후 재정 방만으로 일본화(장기 디플레 침체) 우려. 인도는 이 흐름에서 상대적으로 강한 시장이며 은행주(캐나라, 바로다, PNB, SBI, 액시스, 인덴, HDFC, ICICI 등)가 저평가라고 주장. 연 1000억달러 수준의 FDI·FII·채무 유입이 이어지면 인도 10년 강세장 가능. 선거: 현 집권 세력이 유지될 확률은 높게 보고, 선거 결과가 예상과 다르면 단기 조정 후 랠리 재개 가능성. 2014년 총선 전 랠리 사례 언급. 외국인은 매도 우위, 내국인은 매수 우위. 경기: 상위층 소비는 회복, 하위 60~70% 소비는 회복이 느림. 무상 식량 제공 연장 언급. 테마: 화석연료→비화석 전환, 내연기관→EV, 부동산 슈퍼사이클, 금융자산화(저축의 금융화). 방송 중 중간 광고로 이후 상세 논의 예고. (자막이 중간에 끊겨 세부 종목 목표가는 확인되지 않음)
다듬은 글
hello and welcome to this special Diwali program it's that time of the year it's festive it's bright it's all colors and of course it's a a period of anticipation as well anticipation for better things as compared to what has just gone by uh at the outside I want to wish all our viewers a very Happy Diwali from the entire cnbv 18 team we are coming to you live by the way you can see the decoration around From The moal Towers here in the heart of Mumbai uh you know the next year somewhat 2018 is expected to be dominated by two things rates and politics power and politics as some have put it uh and who better to then put some of these questions too in terms of how this will impact your portfolios these big broad themes will impact your portfolio uh to two real heavy weights how to pack a punch into your portfolio that's the question we're going to focus on and answer in various ways here over the next 20 30 minutes or so so let me welcome in our esteemed panel ramal needs no introduction Ram G of course is Chairman of M Financial Services Manish Shani needs no introduction as well he's of course director at enam Holdings uh Happy Diwali to both of you to your families to your teams the entire TV8 team and all the investors thank you very much uh let's just start there at the slightly top level 30,000 ft are these going to be the big talking points as we enter the new samat which is interest rates and the question whether interest rates globally have peaked and we are entering a cutting cycle now and politics because there are State elections and of course the big general elections next year I just want to start with that Ram G yeah so interested cyle has picked out I think it's a twoo big statement to say uh I mean yes there there looks to be some kind of a pause right now but to say that it has been picked up I have no view on uh this interested cycle but one thing is for sure that uh what we have seen last 10 15 years of subzero or zero kind of a thing where 12 15 13 trillion of bonds particularly in Europe went below below zero so that era is over you know what started in 80s from 15 16% 10 year to zero I think that one phase in pendulum is done and now as uh Howard Mark says you know pendulum moves all the way up so from Z we have come to 5 5 and a half% whatever happens I don't know but it is definitely not going to go back to zero immediately see the extreme the other end of the pendulum five it can swing more you don't know I that's what I'm saying when you said that we are picked out I don't know so what I'm saying is that for sure even 5% is not what the world is designed for you know world is designed for 1 or 2% types yeah so I think uh it is a era of little more expensive money little tighter money and it will have its own reparation like what we are seeing that fi are continuously selling because they are finding far more attrative opportunity in the debt side out there I would think that high multiple companies will come down here also okay Manish uh two questions one is there has been no price to be paid so far we've not had a price to pay right I mean last cycle we had a big price to pay in 2008 because uh we had 450 basis points of tightening this cycle we had about that much 475 basis points from where we started to now I'm talking about the FED rates markets are okay I mean right I mean by and large so that is one second if as Rami also said we don't know if rates are at a peak and they start to come down will that unleash a gash of liquidity into uh equities into markets like India go on so let's separate the two out so first fundamentally what you're saying is right that the rate cycle is not yet peaked and in fact Jam demon is on record to say he expects it to go to 7% uh the fact is this time the pain has been taken by the central bank because they've subsidized all these fellows where the rate increases have not affected them because people have booked their mortgages and passed on the pain to the effectively the National Housing board in the US and the central banks actually are technically all bankrupt and while they are trying to tighten the fiscal side is as lose as ever so the US government is printing money like no tomorrow they have a interest burden now which is a trillion dollar a year which is 4 5% of GDP for a country whose collection is 9 and this is the best economy in the world so how Japan has been bankrupt for the last 30 years and slowly decaying the same thing has happened to UK the same thing has happened to Europe it's happening to us so I call this the japanification of the developed world but they don't have the US dollar none of the other countries have the dollar you know it it we call it the pirate plank when you you know you walk off the ship on the plank until that Minsky moment comes and then you suddenly Splash into the water you feel things are fine so I think that moment m is going to come and there will be massive disruption in my mind in the currency markets which will be sparked by a bond market event in this year in our lifetimes in near term long term I think it's closer than it ever was okay and the how do you call the canary in the coal mine to me is United Kingdom which has gotten out of brexit right that currency has no business to be whatever 100 to the rupe and you see even when Tata goes with a$ 3400 million investment the prime minister is standing in attendance so it's telling you there's difficulty there the way the Japanese Yan has collapsed is telling you there's trouble coming the good news is you are the only large economy in the world by the way it doesn't have to come if rates have peaked and we start at some point rates start to go down right it doesn't have to happen so well that was one reason why people were selling banks in India as well because if you if you think rates are going up and I'm going to lose on bonds so they were selling financials globally and they just followed that trade over here uh and each time my friends from abroad say India is expensive I I say let me show you a menu of my biggest sector is banking which is 30% of the index you can start with a 5p for canara Bank 6p for Bank of Baroda 7p for pnb 8p for SBI which is my largest bank 11p I can give you access bank and indent bank and my best banks are HDFC and ICI which are on less than 15 so if you think this Market expensive and these guys are all compounding at 18 20% there's something wrong with you post the general election and assuming things are all steady that's what I'm get if we don't get a 100 billion a year I would be very very surprised okay and I do think in this decade we will be the bubble Market okay of the World 100 million per year per year no I said fi plus debt plus FDI cumulative inflow so your balance of payment problems and the rupee depreciation is gone okay you are the momentum Market going forward in this decade the way the world flipped on Japan with one trade or Buffett because everyone's acting like leming there is a single trade single dimensional investing going on I think we are setting ourselves up for that okay it's still a way I mean let's get the May election out of the way and then we see quickly I want to get this election business out of the way is uh is continuity in the price Ru I mean everybody is expecting mostly that there will be continuity right and is that a risk in your opinion and how much there is always 0 1% you know somebody said if Modi doesn't come then Market will fall by 25% okay Chris just just you know who said what I'm saying is that that probability is 1% what happens if he comes that is 99% so then Market goes up by 25% so you are losing how much 24 and half% so the payoff metrics is more like 25% up rather than 25% off so you know there are lot of ways of the the mind is very difficult to figure out the probabilities of the events you know so the probability of uh the continuity going away it's very low at least the way things look right now so I think but then event is event let the event be over on 7th December one event will be over and then I think the rally could start immediately after 7th December election depending on the outcome or irrespective or irrespective irrespective I mean if it is very bad outcome then market May c a little bit and then the rally will start you think we will have a rally into general elections yes because this is what happened in October 20 2014 okay I mean uh the moment in Goa uh Mr Modi was nominated as the you know prime minister candidate I think the market actually red before the election after that started in October 20 14 to 133 October 13 to 14 so that is a kind of a timeline we have this time I don't know what the market does but my sense is that depending on the result and uh the mood uh we could rally Manish do you agree vocals are long the foreigners are short and that's how it's comprising the market so clearly the locals have voted that we think there's a great outcome ahead of us and if there is something unexpected then obviously you think F circumspect I mean fi are circumspect fi money has been still going out even last month we lost $2 billion there we are matched by local flows fi FDI still despite the and do you think it's connected directly to to I look if if you don't get the same government or you get it in a different combination the market has to pause and reassess and repic so it's not like the world doesn't end the local macro story is is solid right because that is the bigger thing and then there are businesses you got to pick that remains to your mind solid irrespective of election Solider I would say by the day I mean as the tickle down happens post Co recovery started K recovery the big guys did very well I mean big houses are selling small houses are not selling big cars are selling motorcycles are not selling but I think I think this season we'll get to know in December numbers I think there is a there is a recovery at the bottom of the pyramid and government has again extended the free food for next 5 years so I think uh the the pain in the bottom of the pyram is real I was talking to few FMC companies they're saying the pain is real and volume recovery is very slow so clearly the real boom will come when the bottom of the pyramid is starts the mass that last that uh the 60 70% of the population when they start feeling comfortable maybe the inflation is hurting them you know so somewhere there is something but you're starting to sense that is happening or so somewhat it is better than what it was 6 months back but it's not still what what you're seeing on the upper end you're not seeing on the lower end lower end Manish no I agree with him that that so-called K shape recovery is is probably a reality and that's why the nervousness on elections that if they lose and then you start having what they call giveaways that's also the fear which has been impacting the banking sector for example that you know then your rate cycle inflation are all pushed out to to that extent having said all that look elections an event which will get out of the way and the market will Rally post that once you digest so you may fall 10% 5% whatever if things don't work out but like he said if events are working out as expected it'll get you to a point where again it will look expensive correct from where it will get super expensive we have to take a break but before I take a break tell me three or four themes and when we'll take a break come back and we'll ask you we'll discuss those themes so the three themes R which you're very bullish on so I think the decadal or multi- decadal trend is fossil to non- Fossil okay okay then you have the IC to EV okay then you have the super cycle of your real estate right financialization of then financialization of the savings you know I think for us closer home financial of savings will have huge effect on the economy also got it so we'll discuss this Manish I I would you wake me up morning night I will say whether it's household sector capex sector infrastructure sector the intersection is all Financial I have to take a quick break so let's do that take a quick commercial break here we are back with you in just a bit with both Ram G and Manish Yani in a bit
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