저자: RobertSand · 외국인
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달리오의 AI·반도체 매수는 버블 후반 추세추종 성격으로 해석, 여전히 '최종 상승' 여지 있다고 봄. 동일가중 S&P500은 아직 비싸지 않고 AI 바스켓이 지수 상승을 주도. 스페이스X 상장은 과열 신호로 경계. 여름 유동성 공백과 중간선거 리스크로 변동성 확대 가능성 언급, 포지션은 단계적 청산·비중 관리 강조.
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And in the case of Rey Dalio it is very striking because he has always argued that we are heading towards the precipice and then the movements of the portfolio have been very striking. It seems to say, "We have to act, we have to move now, we have to take advantage of the fact that we are not yet at the crest of the wave, even though everything is going to explode." These purchases by Rey Dalio don't seem crazy to me, even though they are in the technological or even AI sector.
Sometimes, with a heavy heart, you have to follow the market trend. What he's doing is also separating the wheat from the chaff. Now, not everything goes. There is still, at least from my point of view, that final push. If the AI does nothing or very little, and a great manager like him says, "I'm not stupid, excuse my language, and I have to take advantage of this huge trend we see here." SpaceX's stock market IPO worries me.
That's where we have another sign that we are at levels of euphoria, of extremism. The moment that breaks there, watch out. This is the moment when all my alarm bells go off and I say, "What's going on?" And here with us, as my dear friend Robert Sand, manager of Creant, used to say, always here every month .
Delighted to have you here, especially to talk about this stock market madness, as many people have doubts about where we're headed with the economy. We also have to see what the big investors, Rey Dalio, Draen Miller, well, what they've done with their portfolios, and I'd like to know your opinion.
Robert, it's always a pleasure to have you here. The pleasure is all mine, as always. Yes, yes, we have a crazy situation. Things are coming together, everything you've said, and well, in fact, just a moment ago there was this news of a possible peace agreement between the United States and Iran. On the other hand, right?
In other words, it's more discountable. Sure, sure, sure. But if there weren't enough topics on the table, well , there are topics, there are always topics, right? The economy never rests, and with Trump even more so, right? Because one year of Trump is like four of any other president. I think we've discussed that many times, and it's true .
First of all, I want to tell those of you watching this later, and this is from YouTube and not from the purple platform, that we are live at 1709, to leave your like to support the talks with Robert. We always really appreciate it when you show your support with a like, subscribe to the channel and activate the notification bell, and what do you think of the stock market, are you in?
Hey? Are you going to play SpaceX? Are you going to go all in now, or are you going to scale back? What do you think? Please mention it elsewhere, I'm interested to know. Speaking of market trends and movements, we recently learned about the portfolio movements of the latest major investors, including, for example, Rey Dalio and Star Andy Draken Miller.
And in the case of Rey Dalio it is very striking because he has always argued that we are heading towards the precipice and then the movements of the portfolio have been very striking. It seems to say, "We have to act, we have to move now, we have to take advantage of the fact that we are not yet at the peak of the wave, even though everything is about to explode." I don't know how you see these moves by big investors like Rey Dalio.
Look, yes, we could think that what he says and what he does are contradictory or incongruous, but ultimately , I think we've talked about this in several conversations here, one can have a position, one can have an idea of, hey, what's happening makes sense or doesn't make sense, but we also have to understand the market.
The market is often irrational, therefore, there are times when we will have to, even if it is, let's say, with a heavy heart, follow the market trend a little . In this specific case you mentioned, well, yes, King Dario has said on numerous occasions that we are, let's say, in an almost euphoric bubble situation, but meanwhile he is making these purchases.
Because? Because what he is doing, in my opinion, is also separating the wheat from the chaff. In other words, not everything goes anymore. I think this is something we agree on, something we've discussed several times. We're starting to see signs of a bubble, but that doesn't mean the bubble is going to burst.
Yes, right now we have a market that has risen a lot, but I personally consider that overall it is not excessively expensive. So , as long as we can find some opportunities, well, we have to keep riding that little roller coaster. What's more, if you look at the SP500 versus the RSP, which is the SP500 with the same weighting, you see the valuations of one and the other and yes, the SP500 is expensive, but the SP500 equal weight is not expensive.
And what's more, I'm going to make another note and see what you think. During the lasassas.com bubble, the RCSP reached all-time highs when the tech bubble had already burst. In other words, 6 months later is when the RCP reaches historical highs and then it does start to deflate, but much less than the SP500 of equal weighting or sorry, the normal and ordinary SP500, right?
So, of course, when you say something is expensive or cheap, you have to see what is expensive and cheap, and maybe technology is getting more demanding, but the rest isn't. And yet, and here I'm getting into positions, look at what Ridalio has bought. Taiwan Semiconductors, Alphabet, Nucor Corp, Elisers, right?
Fixed income, also synopsis. These are all new additions and then it increases massively in some others that are also very interesting with a lot of technological exposure, for example, Credo Technology Group or Amazon. It's interesting, isn't it? It's movement. Yes, yes. It's very symptomatic. Let's see, you were just commenting on the SP and SP equal weight part, but if we look at the current rise, Goldman AI Basket has a 42% increase.
If we removed the AI from the SP, the SP would have gone up by 3.5. Therefore, the difference up to the almost 10% we have has been made by AI. And what's more, I would say, these Reyio purchases don't seem crazy to me at all, even though they are in the technological or even AI sector. I have also mentioned this several times in different forums in recent days.
Personally, I feel envious that we all know how much it weighs on the SP, that we all know how much it has risen, even though we have all that, well, in terms of valuation, envy of an estimated P/E ratio for next year of 20-something times doesn't seem terribly expensive to me. Yes, it is demanding, yes, the benefits have to keep coming.
Fantastic. And the moment that breaks, watch out. But envy isn't what scares me the most. What scares me the most is that example we were talking about a few weeks ago, about what was the name of that company Alberts, I think it is, which went from making sneakers to being an AI computing center . Hey, that really sets off a series of red flags for me, doesn't it?
I mean, man, I mean, never a truer word spoken, right? Shoemaker, make your shoes. Hey, be careful about mentioning that word today. No, no, no, no. We're talking about a shoe company, nothing more. Exactly. Exactly, exactly. No, sorry, sorry I cut you off. Uh, no, no, no. But of course, you understand the point is there's a significant rise, there are companies that are already at demanding valuations, but I don't think that what Rey Dalio is doing is, let's say, a contradiction to his principles.
And in fact, I don't think so either, I don't think so either. Just one last point on this. This year, Warren Buffett, we all know that Warren Buffett is very cautious, he is waiting, he is in a brutal liquidity position, but the ones he has sold are oil and gas companies and he has tripled his position in Google.
So, well, it also gives us something to think about, even though it's technology, even though there is that, well, Google is in everything, right? It's also in AI, but even though it's in that sector, hey, it might still be a good idea. Of course, you see, it's completely like that because what Dalio says is, "I think the bubble is like a puncom bubble and it's going to burst, but I think the investor can squeeze that bubble." So, in the end, the argument and what he's doing makes sense, right?
It's true that he's been quite overloaded with technology lately, and maybe what he thinks is that the crash isn't so imminent, even though he tells us it is, or that he's going to retire at some very specific moment and sell all the technology when he sees that this is winding down. It could be those two possibilities that he wants to take advantage of AI and what you were saying with this graph, right?
That the AI is pulling very hard with respect to the SP. It has AI, the S&P isn't doing anything, or very little, and a great manager like him says, "I'm not stupid, excuse my language, and I have to benefit from this huge trend we see here, right? Yes, yes, yes. I mean, we always say, you shouldn't chase the market, but you should go with it.
If you've missed something, well, if you're late to a company that's already risen a lot, don't go looking for it because it might not be the right time, but you do have to go with the trend, right? Let the trend be your friend. So, if what we're in right now is semiconductors, AI, technology, let's pay attention to what we buy; not everything is worthwhile, but if the money is there, yes, like you said reidaliio does, let's take advantage of that trend.
We also have to look at something very important, and that is what's driving the trend recently, or what kind of money is driving the trend, because look at this chart and it's going to It turns out to be very interesting. Smart money is indeed entering the market. You can't say, "No, it's leaving, no, it's entering the market, but very little at a time ." On the other hand, the "D money," the "dumb money," is entering at very high levels.
Here, the average of the dotted line represents extreme levels of buying by the "dumb money," and that's what's ultimately fueling this rally to a large extent . Now, what does the institutional investor do? They look at this chart and say, "I'm not stupid, excuse my language, and I'm going to take advantage of what the "dumb money" is doing." And I think that's where the institutional investor is, right?
Saying, "I'm going to go for it, even if the rally isn't as solid as this chart shows, but I'm going to profit." Absolutely. And that's when we make this comparison—well, this sounds awful, doesn't it?—smart money, dumb money. That's where factors like what you mentioned earlier come into play, about the IPO, SpaceX's stock market debut.
It's worrying. I think that's where we have, for example, another sign that we're at levels of, let's say, euphoria, of extremism, because for me, a company, no matter how cool it is, even if it's Elon Musk, in this aerospace category, a company that goes public at 175 times sales, it just does n't make any sense.
We're talking about a valuation like BS Hathaway's or Meta with company profits that don't match. So that's where people are going crazy asking how they can buy it, when they can buy it, if they can get in before it goes public. You notice it with clients too, Robert, you know, since you have a good rapport with clients and so on.
Uh, I'd say, yes, we have noticed it. Hm. I'd say even more so at the retail client level than with large clients, because, well, ultimately, it's the retail clients who really know how an IPO works and they don't tell you certain things. I've seen people this time around So, well, he really doesn't know, asking me how I can invest here and how I can invest before this goes public, by joining a Telegram group.
I say, "Man, it's, I mean, this, um, uh, it's not for you, forget it, I mean, of course, this is the moment when all the alarm bells go off for me, well, and I say, what's going on?" Are we already at the point of the Rockefeller shoeshine boy example or what? Hey, what you're saying scares me, because when you see everyone wanting to get into the manias, that's when the severe adjustments happen.
I mean, I'm fine with people asking me a lot about SpaceX, like how I see it or what I think , but thinking about investing massively, that's something I feel like you do, I get the feeling that we're going to get into a big mess in 2021 and 2022 afterwards. How can we continue with this trend? Sure, I think we're a little better off than in 2021 because, of course, in 2021 we had those zero interest rates, meaning money was free, everything was worth it.
There was that moment of the Spack euphoria, remember? They would come out and quote prices for things you did n't even know what they were. It was the right price surprise box. But how can I invest in something if you're just going to tell me what it is? I mean, there was a moment of complete and total irrationality, but well, of course, it wasn't just that, it was those trends in sectors that had nothing solid about them, remember?
the moment of cannabis companies, of unprofitable tech companies, and even that moment of meme stocks where, well, whatever Reddit posted was gospel. So, well, of course, that situation I think was much riskier than the one we have now. Now, well , after all, we have a number of very powerful technology companies that, well, it is true that we have to continue trusting that the profits will come, but well, after all, we have Nvidia that is practically printing money.
Microsoft, which is monetizing AI, which is very important, we've talked about it before, not just having it, but monetizing it. That, that's key. Uh, I don't know, we have Broadcom, which is going to be that famous infrastructure we were talking about to support all the rest, let's say, software that is also being created.
So, I think the situation isn't the best in the world, that's clear, but it's better than in 2021, than in 2001. So, we can have that risk, but it's limited. And the opportunity cost of staying out can be enormous, I mean, when everything becomes very parabolic, staying out is certainly more prudent, but what do you do if you have inflation of almost four now and it's going to be higher?
We will surely reach an even higher peak. It's just worse to be left out. Well, yes, you can go into money market funds, protect yourself, partially protect yourself, fixed income, some juicy stuff there, whatever is cheap, totally, but adding a little bit of the weight of what has the biggest body within the index does make sense to me .
And I have positions, obviously in technology, and what you said about technology you mentioned Microsoft, right? Damn, Microsoft, with all this talk about software being ruined, or rather, artificial intelligence ruining software, man, I find it hard to believe that Microsoft is going to disappear or that it won't adapt its business.
Furthermore, Microsoft is a titan and has a mega-diversified line of business. Well, precisely those kinds of companies, seeing incredible results, damn, why not? No? So, is Microsoft in the same situation as Nvidia or Oracle? Well, I don't think so, for example, right? So you need to know how to do the right stop picking, right?
As a portfolio manager, you're more focused than ever, aren't you? Yes, yes, yes, yes, absolutely. Well, that's what it is at the end of the day, although it sounds like technology is very expensive. Just the other day someone asked me what you would reduce your exposure to. I mean, I might start reducing my exposure to some defense companies because, well, it's like we're just following the trend of what's being said, but if we stop for a moment, if we stop to think about what has happened with defense companies and look at examples, well, it's clear that we all have in mind , the typical ones, right?
But a few days ago I saw Fortinet, for example, that it had risen 100% in a week. Well, that gives you something to think about. You need to analyze whether that's sustainable or not. Well, like I said, having one of these tech companies we're talking about now doing its business well doesn't scare me as much as following a trend that has worked very well.
But look, if that peace agreement between the United States and Iran is reached today, let's hope that at some point all the wars will calm down a bit. But hey, maybe it's time to unwind positions from something that has already worked very well. Look, it's happened to me, that's it, it's when everyone wants to get on the boat that's usually when you have to start getting off .
And with what you were saying about SpaceX, the space sector, or what the big investors are also doing to take advantage of the technology wave like Reidalio and others we've mentioned before, well, I saw this frenzy for space and everything linked to the sector and I said, "Damn, well I'm going to see what's out there." And that's when I came across Rocket Lab, I analyzed it, I looked at it, I joined, but about a week ago I left and it's rising a lot more, but I mean, it's already done , it's a tactical position.
It has given me the game I was looking for as an investor within a very small equity position and very much about playing the tactical game and that's it. And you have to know how to enter, but you also have to know how to leave. It 's often harder to get out than to get in, isn't it? I mean, this is where, when you tell me this and you see it with clients, this is key.
What you said is brutally true. It is much easier to buy than to sell. Why sell? When you're there, that's where behavioral finance comes in. Total. Total, total. Clear. That's where feelings take over . If you're losing, you don't want to cut the loss. If you're winning, you think you're Warren Buffett.
Hey, listen, yes, there is a moment and there's also another point, what you were saying, to take into account what percentage of your assets you're investing in that. If there comes a time when we feel like we're going into the red, well , that's when things can get complicated . If we know that we are making this tactical bet by buying, well, what you were saying, Rocketlab, Fortinet, whatever, and it works, and hey, you've used 3% of your capital and doubled it, well, hey, you've earned an amount that is significant in percentage terms.
It will be what it will be , right? I mean, it won't be what it is , but of course, don't expect to get rich overnight just because Rocket Lab has to keep going up to infinity. That's where you often get your fingers caught. Investing is a long-distance race, and compauding has to be done year after year after year, and then in the bad years, you try to have the smallest possible negative result.
That's how it is, isn't it? But look, because we've talked before about Rey Dalio and his portfolio moves, now I'm also looking at some statements he made that actually supported what we were saying, and you'll see it here. Now we're going to pivot to someone other than Reidalio, okay? But this is so you can see the issue of bubbles and what we're talking about now.
Dalio says the situation is quite clear, that we're in a kind of bubble, but we haven't seen the burst yet, and that it might still be a ways off, which is why those movements happened at that time. But speaking of which, look, Stanley Draken Miller, who many consider the best investor in history along with Buffett, is a close friend of Scott Bes and Kevin Wars, so he's going to have inside information about what to do.
I always find it interesting to follow what he does , but even more so now because he has Bes and Wars there directly, who are close friends and share professional experiences with him. And the thing is that Draken Miller, and this is very curious, has bought, among many others, Broadcom, and also has a lot of Nvidia in his portfolio, he has Sandisk, he has Twilo, Seate Technology.
In other words, a lot of technology has been put in there, Intel, you see here, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, hm, interesting moves, right? Also, that is, it is also moving the tree towards artificial intelligence in some sense and in a very profound sense. Precisely. Well, like I said, it doesn't surprise me, and in fact, that's what we've been talking about, right?
There is still, at least from my point of view, that final push. Yes, we have to be aware that we need to adjust weights, etc., etc., but for the moment that trend continues, that frenzy of wanting more and more. Nobody will warn us when the bubble is going to burst, but as you mentioned here, let's say, quoting Reidalio's words verbatim, we are in a bubble situation, but it doesn't necessarily have to burst in the short term, right?
So, the fact that we see all these big investors doing , well, investing in similar sectors, in similar companies, like I said, doesn't surprise me at all. In other words , if we look at all the analysis firms, they are now setting the target for the SP500 at more than 8000 points, when 6 months ago that might have seemed impossible.
Hm. If we reach that level, I believe it will come precisely from this technology and this artificial intelligence. Furthermore, Broadcom, let's also see what each of them does, because we always lump them all together, do n't we? But hey, each one is, let's say, specialized in doing one thing or another.
That's what we said, right? Many times there is infrastructure to support all this technology and to support all artificial intelligence. I mean, a Broadcom seems totally logical to me, not only in the short term, but also, as you said before, on a more defensive level, if there's a crash of something worthless.
This, you see, opens the door to a question that I'd like to know what you think about and discuss, and that is, summer is coming. Summer often brings complications, especially in midterms, and the market has risen significantly . Hey, what do you think should be done with wallets from now on ? Because there's always talk about selling in May, about whether sometimes selling in May doesn't pay off, about whether we're in a spiral where SpaceX is coming in June and maybe this will last until mid- July, and this year is different and it goes up even more.
I don't know about you, but what are your plans for your portfolios? Okay, this question is complicated. The first thing I would tell you here, and not because of compliance, is that each investor has to pay attention to what they see, right? I personally would, and I mean, I was saying this a bit jokingly now, but it is true that this time, this year, if one is no longer comfortable with this rise because of missing out on the upside potential , hm, I wouldn't hesitate to unwind positions.
However, if one is aware that we may have a breakout during the summer period, which we all know is characterized by lower liquidity, any news will be much worse for the market. And what could that entail? that we have a sudden drop one day in August when you're enjoying yourself on the beach and you turn on the news and watch the news or any platform to check how the market is doing and you see that it's falling five percent that day and another five percent the next day, we shouldn't panic because I think we're in a year where that can happen.
That said , for me, factors like the SpaceX IPO, the midterm factor—which we were actually discussing a couple of months ago when we talked about Trump's put option, when the market was falling and we said, "Hey, Trump ca n't and won't allow us to reach the midterms with a catastrophic market situation"—it worked, that's what happened.
He made that move to escalate, let's say, the rhetoric and then tone it down. We can enter a summer where more or less everything flows smoothly, but with some scares. Therefore, and going back to the tricky question you threw at me, I personally would follow the market, I would participate, but being very aware that we have a very important risk factor, which is that valuation with that liquidity factor.
I think I've explained it quite well and it also seems responsible to me. By the way, since you've made your disclaimer, I'll make mine. You know that what we discuss on this channel in This is not investment advice. We're sharing ideas; the conclusions are yours. Obviously, you have to be responsible with your money, and past performance is no guarantee of future results.
So, always be responsible and verify all the information. Having said that, Rubert, it's been a pleasure having you here. I'm sending you a big hug, and we'll see each other soon, maybe next month, I don't know, maybe with our swimsuits underneath, right? We'll wear a t-shirt or shirt with swimsuits and flip-flops underneath, right?
Absolutely, because I don't know how it is for you guys over there, but it's incredibly hot in Andorra. It's unbearable . We've gone straight from winter here in Madrid to summer; spring practically didn't exist. It's unbelievable. So, flip-flops and swimsuits. That's where we'll be. If you see this, it's from YouTube, so to support it, leave a like, subscribe to the channel, turn on notifications, and comment what you think.
What did you think of the talk? And a hug, Robert, see you soon. Take good care of yourself. A hug. Thank you all. A hug.
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