저자: HéctorChamizo/출연:AntonioCastelló · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 2008년과 유사한 대폭락까지 최대 270일 남았다고 경고했으나, 진행자들은 이를 시점 예측으로 보지 않고 과도한 경고로 평가. 한국 코스피는 반도체 집중 구조로 8% 가까이 급락, 삼성전자·SK하이닉스 비중 53%. 반도체 실적은 강하나 과잉 투자·밸류에이션 우려가 존재. 금은 중장기 분산투자 수단으로 긍정적이나 단기 조정 가능성 언급. 포트폴리오 점검과 파생상품 헤지를 권고.
다듬은 글
Michael Barry, known for the film "The Big Short," has spoken again, and in his opinion (not ours), he says that there are at most 270 days left until the next major crash phase, similar to 2008. I think we should be very careful about turning a warning into a countdown. We are in a very complex market situation .
I believe that what we have to see at the moment is a very serious stock market correction, which also coexists with strong corporate results, and in the end the question is whether the market is adjusting excessive expectations or is really anticipating a deterioration that does not yet appear in the companies' income statements .
I do n't see that final bursting phase of the bubble, I don't perceive it in people, and I think that the more parabolic movement, if we were in a bubble, has not developed. I think Barry is getting ahead of himself . I mean, the stock market is going to go down in 270 days, or the day after tomorrow, I don't know.
What an investor would do in response to such a warning is review their portfolio. Like I said, I'm not worried if the market is going to crash in 270 days or the day after tomorrow. What worries me is being personally comfortable enough to look at the different market situations. Due to initial probabilities, at some point the market will go down, and it will go down as it always does; it will go down sharply.
How are you? Hello everyone, how are you? I hope you're doing well. As you can see, the markets have been somewhat turbulent in recent days, and it's all related to the collapse we 're seeing in Korea, as well as uncertainties regarding inflation and comments like those from Michael Barry, who has been warning about this for a long time and whose views should also be taken with a grain of salt, but who, in his opinion, gives us only a fraction of the time left before this all blows up.
And we're going to discuss all of this, as there's a lot of current news and a lot of data to talk about, as I said, with my dear friend Antonio Castelo from Ibroker. How are you, Antonio? How are you? Hello, Hector. Good morning. Delighted to be with you. You know it's always a pleasure to have you here, the audience loves you.
In fact, comment down below what you think of the chats with Antonio, because Antonio will always greatly appreciate the support you show in the comments, it doesn't cost you anything. And of course, to support these talks, this market update, this shared vision of where the economy and the stock market are headed, please leave your like, it only takes a few minutes, and also subscribe to the channel and activate the bell to make this family bigger, which is getting bigger all the time, isn't it?
Hector, and if you'll allow me, could you also share your opinions in the comments ? Because many times we too may be isolated, and it's important to know what the followers think, right? We really like to know the community's opinion , so listen to Antonio. Do n't do it to me again, okay? Do it for Antonio, because your opinion matters.
Come on, tell us what you think about this whole climate we're experiencing. I wanted to start with what I said in the introduction, which is that we seem to be seeing a huge red tide in the South Korean market, a market that depends on two stocks and that shows a bit of the dependence on artificial intelligence for the rest of the global market to rise.
And, of course, we are seeing that in a single day, on the day of the eh, it dropped by 8%. The press was talking about a crash. And the question is whether what we are seeing in the memory sector, with a gigantic collapse, can affect the rest of the market. Well, uh yes, indeed. I think what's happening in Korea deserves attention because we're seeing a very violent movement in a market, as you said, especially exposed to semiconductors and expectations about artificial intelligence, right?
The Kospi has fallen by more than 8%, closing a little below that, down 7.57%, but it has activated a temporary suspension of trading at times, which only happens when the movements are really important, right? The losses in Samsung and SK Hynix have been significant, it must also be said that these two stocks have a weight of 53% of the index and this comes after a 4.3% drop in the US semiconductor index, right?
So, it seems there is a clear connection between sales in the international technology sector and what happened today in Korea. Okay, so the interpretation of this is that the market is being tested for two things. One, the profitability of the huge investments in artificial intelligence, let's say sowing this, but the truth is that they are still there and and and and they don't go down, right?
And another thing we 're also talking about is the valuations we've agreed to pay for this growth, right? Well, let's see, we know that artificial intelligence can transform the economy, and yet some investments related to it can turn out to be unprofitable, right? Ultimately, what matters to the shareholder is how much money each company ends up generating, what investment it needs to achieve that, and how much they have paid to participate in that business, right?
So, for semiconductor manufacturers, there is also a cyclical issue: very strong demand encourages new factories and more capacity. And if that capacity arrives when growth begins to moderate, then prices and margins may suffer, right? And that's why we need to analyze not only the orders, but also the evolution of the supply and the profitability of the capital invested, in addition to the profits and sales.
Notice that in the last few hours we've had posts from two companies that are quite influential, right? And TSMC, right? Well, that's great, from the analysis of those results we deduce that demand remains strong and is generating income and profits in reais. ASML even said that, well, it was going to have problems meeting the demand for its products in the next year and the year after, right?
And TSMC has just announced a record quarterly profit with a 69% year-on-year increase, right? Uh, so, well , it seems a bit incongruous, does n't it? One thing leads to another, right? But hey , we did find explanations in the end, didn't we? A company can continue to grow and its stock price can fall because the price demanded even greater growth for more years and extraordinary margins, right?
So, also, look, in the case of ASML and TSMC, it allows us to observe different points in the chain, right? Manufacturers are buying machinery, their customers are ordering chips, this confirms investment activity, but of course, let's move on to the next question, which is what we were talking about before, right?
It's about what kind of profit those who buy these chips and build the data centers will get. Can they convert all that spending they're doing into income, into profits, and in the end, make it all work out , which is what really matters? And these may be enough to keep up with the investor's pace. So, that's where I think the key to all of this lies, and then I think we also need to emphasize what we were saying a moment ago, right?
In this industry, when demand is very strong, companies expand capacity. So, ASML and TSMC are always influencing this in some way, right? So what's going on? Well, that investment takes time to reach the market. And what is the doubt here, if when these investments to improve their production come into operation, well, if demand has lost momentum, which is one of the doubts we have, then pressures and so on could appear here , right?
So, well, I think that for the moment what we have to see is a stock market correction, which is very serious, which also coexists with strong corporate results, and in the end the question is whether the market is adjusting excessive expectations or is really anticipating a deterioration that does not yet appear in the companies' income statements, for me that is the key right now and we don't have it at all clear.
We were talking about it before we started, and it's really a situation that's not at all clear, right? So, we've started the third quarter results campaign, I think we talked about it last time or I'm sure you've discussed it these days with your guests, there's talk of profit growth of around 30-35% in the S&P 500, right?
And in Europe, the increase in profits is also strong, but at the same time it is accompanied by these increases in interest rates and financing costs, and the question is whether this can continue . And look, Antonio, related to this, which I think is interesting , but Michael Burry, known for the movie The Big Short, has spoken again, and in his opinion, not ours, he says that at most there are 270 days left until the next major crash phase like in 2008.
Furthermore, he says that 70 to 80% of stocks are in bear markets and the index continues to rise, a denial movement, right? Which is very similar to before the dot-com bubble burst, according to their analysis. What do you think of this possibility? Look, I listen to your arguments carefully, just like I listen to everyone else's , right?
But I think we should be very careful about turning a warning into a countdown, not just the 270 days, but anyway. Okay, so in the markets you can identify clickbait, right? Clear. In the markets you can correctly identify an excess and be wrong for quite some time about when it will correct itself, right?
And that time also costs money. And this is something we've said here frequently, and that sometimes comes up in the comments we receive. I mean, I've been saying this for a long time now, not just recently, but for a long time : "Hmm, let's see, we're in a very complex market situation , right? Because we're seeing a series of factors increasing that, from an orthodox point of view, would be enough to justify sharp drops in the markets, and yet the markets aren't falling, right?
Well, we can analyze that, as Barry says, the indices are holding up because they're being sustained by only a few stocks. Anyway, we can analyze all of this, right? I think the interesting point here is that the indices can transmit a strength that most of their components don't share. In the end, if a few large companies keep rising, the index can stay near its highs, while, indeed, many other companies are correcting, and they are doing so." In a strong way, right?
I mean, I think if we look at the level of the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq, we understand this quickly, right? So, to jump on that bandwagon, the first thing we would have to do is check how many stocks are following the increases, how expected earnings are evolving, and if companies are finding financing on reasonable terms, right?
If market breadth, estimates, and credit all worsen simultaneously, then we do have a more consistent signal. Then, regarding what he points out about historical episodes, I think the 2000 tech crisis and the 2008 financial crisis had very different mechanisms, right? We can find some similar human behaviors in terms of overconfidence, extrapolating growth, and the resistance to recognizing losses, but I don't think that makes those situations a law, right?
I think what an investor would do in the face of a This is a warning: review your portfolio. It's something we've been saying for as long as we've been doing these discussions with you. Why? Well, because ultimately, when your portfolio depends on just a few companies, you have to be aware of this, know your actual exposure to artificial intelligence, whether you're using leverage, and if you could withstand a correction without having to sell.
For me, that's the useful application of these warnings. Recognizing the exact day of a drop to detect that I 'm taking on too much risk does n't tell me anything. We have to be able to define our portfolio, to accept and , better yet, first define and then accept the risk we want to have. And I think you do n't need to sell everything to reduce excessive concentration.
So, I think the warning... It can help us formulate good questions, because I think that ultimately an investment decision might need answers about what we always talk about, Hector: valuation, benefits, and risk, right? So, it should make us reflect on that, right? As I said, I'm not worried about whether the market is going to crash in 270 days or the day after tomorrow.
What worries me is being comfortable—I personally, every investor is different— to see the different market situations. And it's not all on/off here, meaning, I'm all bought, all sold. There are intermediate formulas. I always say that, in the end, I, who work at a brokerage firm, where we specialize in derivatives, and I've repeated this many times with you, gentlemen, use derivatives not only as an investment or speculation tool, but also to hedge positions, that's what they're for.
And furthermore, there are multiple instruments that allow To hedge portfolios of practically all sizes, well, with considerable accuracy, that is, if we have doubts that such a crash might occur, well, let's use that portfolio hedging, right? That's what derivatives are for . I wanted to ask you something related to what you're saying, there's a thought that I find interesting, isn't it?
When we talk about potential bubbles, as Barry says, and if we were in a potential bubble, I don't see people on the street investing in AI-related stocks yet, or the fruit vendor downstairs telling me, " Invest in Nvidia because you're going to make a fortune," or "Invest in this small cap that's making a 300% return." I don't see that final bursting phase of the bubble; I don't perceive it in people.
And the most parabolic movement, I think, if we were in a bubble, hasn't developed. I think Barry is getting ahead of himself there . I completely agree with you. I think I've also mentioned this here. I have an anecdote. Um, my first boss was César Alierta, right? When we worked at Banco Urquijo, I'm talking about the early 80s, so that was a long time ago , wasn't it?
And he always said, "When you leave your house and the doorman tells you that you have to buy Telefónica," we're talking about a very small, very individualistic Spanish stock market , where it was very difficult, much more difficult, infinitely more difficult than now, to buy foreign stocks, foreign indices.
But he said, "When you go downstairs and the doorman asks you about Telefónica, when you get in a taxi and the driver talks to you about Banco Santander, you start to worry, right?" And indeed, I agree with you, I mean, in the end, well, you end up being in the media a lot and you contact a lot of people and they call you and so on, I [sighs][clears throat] think that, well, that we're not there Because, let's say, ordinary people, people on the street, not the people who watch these videos, or who are...
because they certainly don't ask me, they do n't tell me, "Hey, we should buy this stock or that stock." We saw this at some point, for example, with gold, right? We even discussed it here, back at the end of last year and in January when gold skyrocketed, right? And we were saying, "Hey, look, I mean, we think we should have gold, but this is a rather scandalous increase, isn't it?" And so on.
But no, right now, it's true that I don't notice that, you know? And then many large companies, the " magnificent seven," which, with the valuation adjustments they've had, in historical terms, aren't at exorbitant valuations in many cases. Some are, like Tesla, for example. Sure, yes. Others not so much.
But Tesla is the one we've always said that The one we liked least, right? Of all of them, because in the end, it has an industrial component that, well, has never quite worked out. I mean, it's true that its owner was going to say—and I have said, because it really is the owner—he has always known how to, or has tried to, sell the product very well, but anyway, there have been doubts.
But yes, what you're saying is also true, and this is something we do discuss with the team regularly, right? Because, well, perhaps because of my age and so on, I 'm the most cautious, but I also have younger colleagues, and it's true, I mean, what you just said, in the end, if you look at multiples, you say, well, you take, I don't know, Nvidia, for example, and you say, well, if it's really maintaining profit growth, in the end, the multiples are still reasonable, right?
So, even though the stock price, the valuation, is very, very high, right? Well, you have to do, you always have to do that... Analysis, right? The problem is that with these kinds of stocks, well, it's probably a bit like what we were saying earlier when we were answering the first question. If you're preparing, selling, presenting magnificent results, phenomenal figures, but then suddenly there's a crash, it's going to be very deep and very strong.
That's why I insist that, well, there are times when there are doubts, so let's take a step back , reduce our exposure a bit , but don't stay out of it. Because if we stay out, we really run the risk of losing much more money by being out than we could lose if a crash of this kind were to happen, right?
Having said that, you were talking [sighs] about gold earlier. I think it's interesting to discuss it because now, with the latest inflation data and the rise in real interest rates, we've seen how gold is pivoting downwards again, though not in a mega-crash way. Disastrous, it has to be said, despite the rise in bond yields, because if we were in a gold cataclysm, we'd see gold yields plummet, the price of gold drop abruptly, I mean, abruptly to $3,000 an ounce without practically any adjustment.
You have a gold chart there. If you want, we can put it up, yes , yes, we can discuss it. Look, well, regarding what you were saying , there was a forecast, right? From Bank of America, right? That said they doubted gold would hold above $4,000, right? That's what we were reading , right? And, well, as always, you have to read beyond the headlines, right?
Here's the gold chart for people to see. Right. Right, so, well, look at the rise, the strong rise. And the surge in gold, which you have, you have it a little bit there, uh, there, there, that's the moment, that seems to me to be, uh, that could be January, right? January, February of this year, right?
Correct, January, yes. January of this year, indeed. There, and in that last phase, in that last quarter of last year, I mean, gold really rose as we were saying, like a penny stock, right? But well, notice that with all the decline and such, it has settled at a point that could be a reasonably balanced situation, right?
Between the beginning of that dazzling rise that you were pointing out there and some previous highs, therefore , I mean, we can perhaps think that, well, that it could be a price, but going back to this topic of Bank of America, right? Uh, uh, I say that you have to read further down the headlines, right?
Because they're talking about an average of $4,000 per ounce in the fourth quarter, but they're talking about a projected average of $4,800 for 2027, right? The same entity that makes the estimate, right? So , it's a bit like what we were saying before, is n't it? I mean, someone who's trading day-to-day, doing intraday trading, speculating, yes, we can probably see gold trying to fight the $4,000 level, even lose it at some point, right?
But the same entity that tells you this also tells you that it could continue until 2027. What we need to do here, something we 've also said and emphasized on other occasions, Hector, is that we should distinguish between the role of gold in a portfolio and the possibility that its price might correct for a few months, right?
Gold, [sighs] I think, can serve as a diversifier, but at the same time have volatility. Considerable, something we weren't used to years ago , but with these events at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, well, we have seen it, haven't we? Look, gold has a particular characteristic, as we've said here many times: it doesn't generate profits, it doesn't generate dividends, it doesn't pay coupons, and so this makes its valuation highly dependent on demand, confidence, and how attractive other alternatives are, right?
If bonds offer a higher real return , then the opportunity cost of holding an asset that doesn't pay interest, as is the case with gold, increases. Gold. I'm digressing from gold for a moment. Notice that in a complex situation where inflation is soaring, oil is clearly above $100 , and in recent days we've seen the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fall, and therefore, prices rise.
What's happened? Well, some investors are seeking refuge in gold in the face of a complicated situation. Asset. Uh, have we gotten over the shock of the enormous US debt , the huge fiscal deficit, and all that? No. What happens then? Well, in the end, it remains a safe-haven asset and has the advantage of paying a coupon, which gold doesn't , right?
So, we 've always said, well, when there's a lot of inflation, gold is a place to be. Well, yes, that's true, isn't it? High inflation drives a search for protection, right? But in the end, if this leads to a more restrictive monetary response and raises real returns, well, it can put pressure on gold, right?
Because, well, you're adding another variable, right? So, well, yes , we can indeed see momentary drops in the price of gold and so on, but I still think that gold continues to contribute to diversifying risk. Well, buying it... we have to accept that it can also fall, especially the more stability we expect from it.
But in the end, I think we have to look more at the medium term, look further ahead, and see this a bit. Yes, it's true that the entry price still matters, right? I mean, we were saying this, weren't we? When it was soaring to 5,000 and something, we were saying, well, watch out, because, well, as a general idea, it's going to keep going , but maybe not at these prices, right?
Now, maybe if we go to those levels of 4,000, then it's a good place again to buy gold for those who do n't already have it, right? Of course, the timing of your portfolio allocation definitely matters, doesn't it? Because I, for example, who bought in November 2022, well, adjustments of 30% or 35% don't affect me because my thesis on gold, as you well know, Antonio, is very...
In the long term, and given that they now have inflation, how are they going to get out of this spiral and how are they going to get out of the budgetary mess they're in? Well, they're going to do what they always do: devalue the currency. Governments just don't know how to do anything else . Of course, and that's where gold comes in, providing support to a portfolio.
That's absolutely obvious, it's clear, isn't it? Gold will always decorrelate a portfolio in the long term, which is why family offices always have allocations around 5%, and even 10% during gold cycles. We're in a moment that I think has similarities to the 70s and 80s, where real interest rates were rising, but gold didn't fall as it usually does when real interest rates rise.
It fell a little, but then it went back on the upward trend. If China keeps buying gold, if the major central banks around the world keep doing... Gold hoarding, they're buying the dip. If large institutions are stockpiling gold to decouple from the dollar's depreciation, who are we to contradict what those who truly run the world are doing ?
It doesn't make sense. It's better to hold gold long-term, having already positioned yourself behind, or if you see a significant drop in gold, thinking ahead, say, "Look, I'm not going to trade gold. Whoever does trade gold, fine, I'll give them a pat on the back, but if you think we're heading for further monetary depreciation, which is what I believe and what you think too, then any sharp drop in gold, why not?" "It's an opportunity." Look, Hector, the other day someone from the media asked me , well, they were trying to justify it by saying that since everyone is angry with Trump, European countries were taking the gold their central banks had deposited in the United States, in the Federal Reserve and so on, and I told them, well, look, this is a bit relative, I mean, they're not taking it anywhere, I mean, maybe they're moving it to London because, as you all know, there are two major markets where gold is deposited: the Federal Reserve, for greater stability and security, which has always been the case there, and then London.
Why? Because in London, it's true that this gold can be used as collateral to support certain things, and that has been detected, not because they're angry with Trump, but because they're taking it to another market where they can actually use it more in that way. And it's true that if things get bad, some governments of some countries that aren't so strong or Such powerful entities might temporarily halt gold purchases and even use their existing gold reserves as collateral to secure financing on better terms, right?
But I agree with you. Ultimately, you see the major central banks continuing to accumulate gold, and as long as this continues, well, if you intend to day trade gold, it's like trading oil, is n't it? You could be getting confused and making a mistake, especially if you're using a derivative. We often get calls from clients who say, "Hey, I want exposure to gold." "Well, you have gold ETFs, right?" "No, no, but I want to do it with a leveraged futures contract." Well, you should be aware of the risks associated with leverage, right?
It's a market, a product that has traditionally been quite stable, but we've seen episodes of volatility, and we may continue to see them, right? Of course, right? And volatility, well, the investor has to know how to play with it, and keep in mind that volatility is often, as we've discussed before, right?
Buying opportunities. If you keep a cool head and ignore the noise—right now, for example, there's a lot of noise, isn't there? "This is going to collapse," and so on. When there's so much noise, collapses happen suddenly, and you know it because you've been here for so many years, and you don't see it coming.
It's what I was saying before: saying, " The stock market is going to fall in 270 days," or "the day after tomorrow," or whatever. Not even Mr. Barry knows this, nor do any of us here , right? Even if we all row in the same direction, right? Exactly, when it falls, it falls, and you don't see it coming, and it's hard, isn't it?
But anyway. No, that's why it's interesting to look at in- depth analyses, but giving a specific date seems incredibly risky to me, and it's a bit of a trap to make you... They click on you, right? On the specific article, or that they read it, I mean, that it has the underlying thesis, it's what you were saying , that I always read what Barry says carefully because he's a guy who was laughed at in 2006, in 2005, in 2007, and then he was right.
The thing is, he spent three, three, four years languishing in the desert, and then, and then, and then he was right, but the point is to anticipate things too much, right? But, but it's like if right now, I mean, let's see, right now we say, well, how many years have we clearly had a bull market? And look, we've practically gone through wars, complex situations, I do n't know what, after Covid, you have a bull market there , right?
By probability index, at some point the market is going to go down, and it's going to go down as it always does, but it's going to go down sharply, right? But well, by probability index, we're probably closer to a A drop that the market will then go back up, I don't know, another 15, another 20%, right?
This seems obvious to me, but well, unfortunately, we haven't been given the ability to use a crystal ball yet, have we? Indeed, well, we're going to focus on all this, which I think is very interesting, and see where the market, the stock market, pivots from now on. We'll continue reviewing all these things with Antonio Castelló, who will continue to come on the channel, so, well, thank you very much for stopping by as always.
Thank you, Héctor, it's a pleasure, and well, as I always say, a lot of reflection, a lot of care, a lot of diversification, take it easy, and everyone should do their homework. Absolutely, and I'd like to take this opportunity to say that if you liked the talk, as we said at the beginning, it doesn't hurt to leave a like; it's a support for me and for Antonio too, so they know you liked it.
Enjoy the chat, and of course, subscribe to the channel and turn on notifications. Leave a comment— what are your thoughts on the market? We mentioned earlier that we value your opinions, so please share your thoughts . Anyway, that's all for now, and we'll see you in the next video. Bye!
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