저자: HectorChamizo · 외국인
요약 보기
레이 달리오의 미국 부채 우려와 중국 부양책에 대한 경고를 전달하고, 달리오가 제시한 '사계절' 포트폴리오(주식30%, 장기채15%→30%로 표기 혼재, 단기채15%, 금7.5%, 원자재7.5%)를 ETF로 구성하는 방법을 소개한다. 발표자는 이를 교육 목적이며 투자 권유가 아니라고 명시한다. 자산 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 1~3개월 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
Ray Dalio, one of the most important investors of all time, issues a final warning. He doesn't care about interest rates and is thinking about the ticking time bomb that could explode at any moment. Dalio is very concerned about the US debt situation, which, let's remember, exceeds 34 trillion dollars.
He literally says something big is happening. They have had a crisis of capitalism and also a crisis of capitalism because the United States is destined for greater debt issuance that could blow up in their face at some point. What are these latest statements from Ray Dalio and the recent warning he issued?
What is the perfect portfolio to avoid economic crises and to position yourself now? That's what we're going to see next. Ray Dalio, one of the most important investors of all time, issues a final warning. He doesn't care about interest rates and is thinking about the ticking time bomb that could explode at any moment.
Dalio is very concerned about the US debt situation, which, let 's remember, exceeds 34 trillion dollars. Now then, what are these latest statements from Ray Dalio? And regarding the recent warning that Rey Dalio comments on, and also what investment recommendations he makes thinking about weathering the next economic crisis, Rey Dalio says: What is the perfect portfolio to avoid economic crises and to position yourself now?
And that's what we're going to see next: how that portfolio is composed, how to invest in it, and what platform we can use to make and combine those investments. We'll see that next. But first, I remind you, as you have the reminder there, that if you like my analyses, please leave your like. It's the only way to show your interest in this type of content.
Please it, and if you did, many of you aren't subscribed, and it's a gesture that costs very little. Just click the bell icon so the algorithm reminds you when we upload videos, and leave me your comment about what you think. And if you like the statements, the analyses, and everything that Rey Dalio comments on regarding the current situation, going into the analysis purely, what is Rey Dalio telling us according to these latest statements he has made regarding the The current economic climate is basically what Rey Dalio has been warning about for some time.
He finds the US debt situation highly worrying, and now he says that the falling interest rates seem to be less of a concern or risk. Instead, he's more focused on how the US government, whether it's Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, will continue down the path of spending. And spending means more debt and having to issue more Treasury bills and bonds, putting long- term pressure on a situation that could become highly unsustainable if adjustments aren't made.
Meanwhile, Rey Dalio says he's now focusing on another risk that could be worse than initially estimated. That's why he then talks about the perfect portfolio to avoid economic crises, which we'll see here: what those investments are, how to make those investments, and through which platform you can make them.
Moving on to another of Rey Dalio's main concerns, it has to do with China. Remember that China recently, and this information was published by CNBC, has implemented a new stimulus package, of which it has to provide more. Details are still unclear on exactly how these economic measures will be implemented, and Raid Dalio, a strong advocate for investment in China, has weighed in on the situation, raising concerns about what might be coming.
He says it was a great week when this package of measures was announced, but then we need to look beneath the surface to see what's being hidden. He says it seems too risky and warns that deleveraging the economy could be extremely painful because it can destroy wealth and lead to politically charged decisions about who will bear the costs of debt losses.
Against this backdrop, he says, although we saw great actions and words that week, he is sure that these will be followed by highly stimulative policies that will greatly help and support asset prices. You can see all of this in the CNBC report. He adds, "I think there are other important things to pay attention to in order to see how China's internal challenges regarding debt, money, and the economy are being managed." He further says that structural changes are taking place related to the government's desire to maintain total control over China, and that this will have economic repercussions.
He draws more conclusions from these statements. Yahoo Finance also literally says something big is happening. They've had a debt crisis and also a crisis of capitalism. They're favorable to capitalism as we knew it before, but I don't think things will be the same. For example, China has supposedly abandoned capitalism to its fate, and this is another risk factor on the economic chessboard.
Considering that after the US elections, whether it's Donald Trump with his tariff and extremely protectionist policies, or Kamala Harris, who also has that tariff bias—not as protectionist, but one that would generate tensions in the trade war arena—it could create distortions on the global chessboard, and this will affect the economy because the United States would be destined for greater debt issuance, which at some point could backfire on the country and, consequently, on the rest of the taxpayers, leading to an economic recession of varying size.
Taking all this context into account, Rey Dalio has been positioning his portfolio for a long time, for example, in BlackRock Institutional Trust Company and also in Nvidia and Alphabet. You can compare Rey Dalio's portfolio here, but he has also spoken about what the ideal portfolio is. To avoid economic risks and recessions, what is that ideal portfolio?
How would Ralio's ideal portfolio be composed, and how can one access, contract, or invest in such a portfolio? Rey Dalio, in this information gathered by Forbes, spoke of the "four seasons" portfolio to survive any crisis, all economic crises. Specifically, what are those positions? What are those investments that should be in the portfolio?
What asset allocation should we make? Rey Dalio tells us that 30% of the investments should be in global equities, 15% in long-term treasury bonds, 15% in short-term bonds, 7.5% in gold, and another 7.5% in commodities. This would be the perfect portfolio to avoid economic crises. Now, how can we create that portfolio?
Through which platform? How can it be done? Well, I'm going to tell you the one I personally use because it seems to me the most suitable and the best for investing in ETFs, which is what Rey Dalio advises. In this case, I don't recommend it; Ralio says that to build this type of portfolio, it's suitable for any type of investor.
You can do it through ETFs, and for me, the best platform for investing in these types of products is ETFs, which are exchange-traded funds that hold a basket of securities and invest in the sectors or market segments we've discussed. It seems the most suitable because of its wide range of ETF products and the low commissions.
Furthermore, they pay interest on uninvested funds at 3.5% annualized. Currently, this is linked to the Euribor rate, so as interest rates fall, the return on uninvested funds will also decrease. Trade Republic is a neobank fully regulated by the German PINA, which is similar to the Spanish CNMV. It follows European regulatory standards, holds a banking license from the European Central Bank, and can obviously operate in Spain because it is listed on the CNMV ( National Securities Market Commission).
As I mentioned, the commissions are very low for investing in ETFs, and uninvested funds earn 3.56% at the moment. We are recording this video. It will then be adjusted for interest rates. For these reasons, I choose Tre Republic to invest in these types of products. You have the link to download the platform in the pinned comment and in the video description here on YouTube.
You can click on my personalized link to download the platform and build these types of portfolios, which are composed as follows. It is very easy to access these types of vehicles. If we go to 30% of MS3 World, what do we have to do? We look directly, as you can see here, for the Core MS3 World. It is one of the alternatives that is giving us an annualized return of 26.3% .
You also have other MSC World products or those linked to the S&P 500, including Amundi. You need to look at the fees, expenses, and returns, and whether it's hedged by the Euro. These are many alternatives. I'm sharing this as purely educational content; it's not investment advice. I'm not telling you to do this, but I'm sharing Reid Dalio's ideas.
And to be clear, every comment made here is for educational and informational purposes. You can create a portfolio with 30% of your allocation invested in MSC World with these products. You can search for them here using the search engine, and you'll quickly find the type of MSC World products that Reid Dalio mentioned, which would be global equities.
To invest the other percentage— we're talking about another 30%—it should also be allocated to long-term bonds. Long-term bonds are interesting, especially considering that if we're heading into a cycle where interest rates fall, remember that falling interest rates usually have a positive effect on bond prices.
Long-term bonds, and of course, when this happens, we obtain very high returns. Why am I telling you all this? Because the context is that Realio, what he says about this type of portfolio, is a portfolio that covers adverse economic situations. Therefore, having long-term bonds in the portfolio, considering the very complicated context that can arise from an economic crisis, is extremely interesting to give it a fairly large allocation.
And here, for example, you have some of the bond products. Let's search here for Treasury Bond V, or Treasury Bond directly in the Treasury Republic search engine, and here we access all the ETFs that are linked. I personally—and you know this is not an investment recommendation—I personally invested in the 20-year US Treasury Bond tactically.
Realio says that it should be done structurally, allocating 30% of our entire portfolio to it. The remaining 15% would be short-duration bonds. There are some short-duration ETFs; you have to search for short-duration ETFs, which are durations... Short duration ETFs are a good investment choice. You'll find some products from BlackRock, and also some from Wisdom Tree and Xtrackers.
These are DWS ETFs, and they can be very interesting to incorporate into your portfolio. So, I think it's important to keep this in mind when investing and making your decisions. Let's look here for short duration ETFs. You see here, short duration High, would you rule that out? Is n't that what Reid Dalio is telling us?
We should look at corporate bonds, for example, Deers, or short duration bonds, also from BlackRock. And I insist, this isn't an investment recommendation. You also have the Corporate Bond ESG. There are many short duration bond ETFs that could be interesting. Take a look at the Trade Republic list, search for short duration, and you can replicate Reid Dalio's portfolio, taking into account the context he mentions.
Then we would need to incorporate gold into our portfolio, and I always say, as you know, that gold is my... It's a long-term structural bet in my portfolio, but Rey Dalio advises allocating 7.5% to gold. Within gold, there are several products you can look at and make your own decisions if you want to do the same as Ralio.
For example, physical gold EERS, as long as it's backed by physical gold. This is my personal opinion. Okay, and you have physical gold EERS, you also have physical Swiss gold, which is held in Switzerland, and then you also have gold producers. You have another product from WisdomTree, and you have leveraged options, which are riskier, so you have to make your own decisions.
But these are the products to allocate that 7.5% to, because Rey Dalio would consider them, taking into account the warning he gives about the current and future context. And the last one, which we would look for here, would be commodities. We search for commodities directly and find some products, some ETFs, such as the Wisdom3 USD Commodities ETF.
Right now it's negative, but according to Ralio, allocate 7.5% to the portfolio position. This would be ideal to avoid economic crises, taking into account the adverse contexts that arise in these circumstances. There are also broad commodities from Wisdom Tree; most of these products are from Wisdom Tree.
They are also specialists in raw materials, and it's interesting to note from this point of view that, as a final point, I want to say once again that past performance, as you can see here, does not guarantee future returns. Each of you has to make your own investment decisions, but if you have to decide to build a portfolio like the one Jarre Idalio recommends, or another type of portfolio, for me, the ideal way is through ETFs because of their low fees.
And within that ETF space, the best platform—I insist, download the platform and see how it works. You have no problem. You can watch all my videos using the platform in the key points of the day; absolutely nothing happens. You see how it works. Download the platform from the link I leave in my profile, that is, the link I leave in the video description.
In the pinned comment, having said that, if you like this type of content, if you want me to analyze other portfolios like Warren Buffett's and how to create them using ETFs, let me know in the comments below what you'd like me to analyze and we'll look at it in detail. I hope you liked the video and that you find it very useful.
And as I said, if you like it, leave a like, leave a comment, and subscribe to the video. That's how we make the family bigger and bigger.
Comments 0