저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
찰리 멍거의 2020년 데일리저널 연례회의 2시간 연설을 요약한 영상이다. 결론: 멍거는 인덱스펀드를 대부분에게 좋은 선택으로 보지만 도박처럼 올인하지 말고 장기 보유하라고 강조했으며, 테슬라는 매수도 공매도도 하지 말라고 조언했다. 데일리저널: 멍거가 보유한 회사로, 과거 신문사 인수 후 투자 성과가 복리로 주가에 반영되었다고 설명했다. 법률 소프트웨어 등 경쟁사가 취약해 성장했다는 평가. 시장 상황: 뉴스는 공포와 정치를 팔아 비합리적이며 현 상황은 미친 듯하다는 주장. 컴퓨터·인공지능 발전 속에서 투자자는 과거 50~60년보다 힘든 시기에 대비해야 한다고 언급했다. 인덱스펀드: 대부분에게 좋지만 최근 10년 상승을 근거로 노후를 걸고 도박하듯 투자하면 안 된다고 경고. 인덱스가 25년간 부진했던 시기도 있었다는 점을 지적했다. 중국·미국: 멍거는 중국에 투자하고 있으며 기업 품질 개선 여지가 있다고 봤다. 미국 시장은 고평가 속에서도 우량 기업을 찾고 있다고 설명. 기술 및 산업: 기술 혁신으로 기존 독점 산업이 계속 무너져 왔다고 언급. 현재 기술주는 1960년대 니프티50처럼 완전히 광기는 아니라고 평가하되, 벤처캐피털의 과도한 인수·조정 EBITDA 지표 사용에 경고했다. 테슬라 및 전기차: 테슬라는 매수도 공매도도 하지 말라는 입장이며, 전기차는 더 대중화될 것이라는 견해. 석유주에는 역풍이 예상된다는 영상 제작자 의견이 언급됨. 경제·금리: 재정적자와 인플레이션 및 마이너스 금리에 대한 우려가 있으나 멍거도 해답은 없다고 인정. 어떤 결과든 대비하며 투자하라는 메시지. 합리성 유지: 역발상(최악의 결과를 피하기), 자신의 판단 지속 재검토, 정치인에 휘둘리지 말 것. 연구 우위가 있는 소외 기업·국가를 탐색하라고 제안하며 '우리의 멍청한 경쟁자들에게 감사하라'는 멍거의 말로 마무리.
다듬은 글
good day fellow investors legendary investor charkie charlie munger just spoke at his yearly daily journal annual meeting conference it is a two-hour speech with a lot of Q & A and then I thought okay what I can do because I really enjoy listening to Charlie Munger even if he is older than 90 years so it takes time and patience to listen well I'm a stock market researcher I have patience but there were very interesting topics discussed and I'm going to summarize those topics into this video the current market is situation the economy Tesla how to stay rational so start let's start immediately just with a quick introduction in what daily journal Corporation is it's a company that Charlie Munger owns he acquired that a long time ago owning legal and other newspapers in California and around of course the money that they made in the past was invested in other great businesses so the stock price exploded thanks to compounding which is exactly what Charlie Munger does so listening to him giving a great perspective his eternal wisdom giving a great perspective on what's going on in the market economy will give you great inputs on how to position yourself to really take advantage of what's going on and be well off in your life investing cycle the business is legal niche for research and development they are investing in software to cater to courts etc and part of the reason they have been successful according to Munger is because their competitors are awful so also something very interesting typical Charlie Munger so I really think you're going to enjoy this summary if you like Charlie Munger he's also the main let's say thought when it comes to this channel s well now journal technology everything is shifting they have 250 employees focused on research so it's very likely that they will keep making money in the future by improving efficiency for courts and very typical for monger and there businesses they are not collecting any money on fees upfront fees they are collecting money only when the Finks they do work typical Charlie Munger always serve the customer don't trick the customer that's taking the high road in this environment but it's far less crowded and that's also how we have to invest how we have to behave if you own a business now let's start with the content from the market from Tesla from the economy and then how to remain rational the current market and situation what's very interesting and something we have to be very careful about is listening to the news current news according to market is lie to monger is lying and misleading it's like goodness magicians because they make you see things that are not happening and not see the real things that are happening from that deficits world gaps that might lead to issues in the future so it's very hard to stay rational when the news is irrational they are selling you fear and politics is also doing that and there is a lot that goes on and it's absolutely nuts as Munger says when we go into the market there is a lot of questions we're going to dig through them computers and artificial intelligence getting better what should investors do he says prepare for tougher times ahead it will get tougher than it was 50 60 years ago to invest the index thing is going to run run and run very interesting point from market from Munger we can say index funds are irrational in this point of time but is something that it has let's say low friction and therefore it's going to run and run nevertheless keep thinking as a nerd and stick to it don't follow the crowd if you want to do really really good on the index fund recommendation and index funds and sell-off strategy Munger says that those are great for most people but don't gamble a lot of people put all their money in the index funds because they think that cannot go down and when you look get the chart out last ten years yes it cannot go down but gambling your retirement on index funds going up to another 50 percent hundred percent its value risking we have seen periods of time when index funds didn't do good at all even for 25 years so no don't gamble hold for the long-term and he says how in China people are constantly gambling with skeptics how the time of holding something is very very short which is stupid great troubles coming from those that gamble beat in the stock market beat with index funds when we look at the US the market looking for quality businesses despite over valuation and then monger says okay u.s.
but stronger companies are not in America according to monger the he has investments in China you don't his right you're wrong and he'll invest in China with Lilou where they find great investments there but you have to really know how things work there these topics were all over the two hours I tried to systematize them in two categories China the corporate standards well Munger says it is well how it is but look at how they are improving and keep over the improving if they can get over the crazy love of gambling that would be really great for Chinese then the question on tech disrupting moat industries and he says how that's normal how most have been breached time after time after time from department stores newspapers auto industry etc so that's something that will continue to happen you just have to find the real nodes that will be there and that will remain there for long long term on comparison of on the comparison of tech stocks with the nifty 50 of the 1960s he said that it's not crazy yet that the nifty 50 boom was complete dementia in the 1960s because the current tech stocks are very valuable companies but what he warns us about is about venture capital the crazy acquisitions based on EBIT ax which is monger keep saying keeps telling us is earnings and the - there they should be careful buying all those new growth promising stocks at whatever valuation more money more deals more fees for investment banks and you have to really be careful who is driving there because investment banks care only about fees not that much about how much how much money you'll make in the future and Sequoia did really well because it kept itself small then on private equity again using adjusted EBIT ax and all the metrics that don't work and that is all stories as we said for charging fees and he says that we will pay a big price eventually for all the excesses in the financial market on Tesla he says two things I would never buy it and never go short never underestimate a man who overestimates himself musk is peculiar he might overestimate himself but he may not be wrong all the time therefore monger as a rational investor says simply stay away from it on electric vehicles and BYD other technologies he says that EVs will be more popular it's unlikely something else will come up for now and even the taxes will get to be like California so that's another point - the oil stocks analysis sector video that I made a week ago and really it's a very very big headwind for oil also on the question y byd electric sales are down well the answer is that China reduced incentives and why Tesla sales are up because Iran has convinced people that he can cure cancer this is Charlie Munger rational investor so you are up if you disagree you're up with Charlie Munger not with me but I really enjoyed that comment then on the economy budget deficits and inflation all printed money like crazy they are buying assets inflation has been very low economics is tricky and worthless and I get a lot of questions when what about inflation will it go up will it go down and I agree with Munger I can't give you an answer and that's why you didn't see a video about ok what will happen with hyperinflation or here or there just what might happen I don't know what what will happen and the same is with Munger he doesn't have an answer because nobody has an answer so we have to do things and invest in a way that whatever happens we are good whether the trade deficit is dangerous for the US and it should be positive he simply says no and that we can discuss there into how much capital the US has globally exposure so it can continue having a huge trade deficit however on the negative yields those make Charlie Munger nervous but there is no other choice the danger is when people start overdoing and they will overdo it and that's the nature of governments and people again no idea what to do on that impact on insurance typical Munger sometimes you really can't answer you don't know and that's also something the very important message when it comes to investing nobody knows how things will work the impact of low interest rates honey interest rates on insurance there are so many factors there that you cannot know it on the outlook for the global economy slowdown geopolitical risk he mentions Japan and how despite the constant recessions no growth everything is clean there there are no homeless low unemployment life is good so we don't have to panic in thinking ok a recession will be extremely detrimental e on life and that's very very important to keep in mind life goes on live would life will improve no matter what the economics do and if have great investments just to add you will also do great now mental tricks how to stay rational if you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs then you can be a great investor to quote Rudyard Kipling so the mental tricks to stay rational are take the high road because it's less crowded so it might be less rewarding in the short term but it's a winning road in the long term keep your head cool just keep doing what we are doing being a nerd being risk-averse low-risk high-reward forget about politicians because their brains are cabbage and remaining rational works over the long term over cycles and if we are going to live like Charlie Munger up to 90 then it's better that we stay rational don't be a victim be a survivor how to live life the question never feel like a victim it's always very counterproductive see what you can do with yourself and you can survive and unfortunately politicians build careers on victims which can be very very they're dangerous I can confirm that because I have seen wars where I lived due to people being victimized and then going into war and doing stupid things how do discard believes that you have that's very important when it comes to investing and in life you have to recognize when you are wrong constantly re-examine particularly when there is disconfirming evidence it's hard to be rational but we have to constantly work constantly re-examine our ideas but then again here a lot of people will think ok if the stock price goes down then you re-examine and then you see ok what's going on the market might not be right you might be right despite what the market thinks on parenting just be an example teaching and telling your kids what to do doesn't work how to remain rational this is very interesting to eat the to use the inversion process what would be a bad outcome and then stay away from bad outcomes makes you irrational so what would hurt India most easily and then avoid doing that revert and avoid is what so simply revert what you are doing and think okay what would be the worst outcome also when it comes to investing what would be the worst outcome can I take it if not avoid it and go next how to research a new company if complex leave it to others go and research there when you have an advantage over others that's very likely what I do I look for companies where others are not looking stock market analysts at big companies big firms investment firms are being sacked thousands and thousands have lost their jobs so now researching companies really can give you an advantage and also in countries where nobody looks like Russia or mining or solar was the case two years ago so you have to find places where you are smart and wise and the rest is stupid this gives you a great advantage how would Charlie Munger said god bless our stupid competitors they make us rich thank you for watching subscribe to the channel looking forward to your comments in the comment section below and I'll see you in tomorrow's video you
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