저자: SvenCarlin,Ph.D. · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 피터 린치의 6가지 주식 분류(저성장주·안정성장주·고성장주·경기순환주·턴어라운드·자산주)로 투자 아이디어를 분류하고 리서치하라는 교육 영상으로, 구체적 종목의 가격 방향 예측은 없음. 분류 체계: 기업은 시간이 지나며 분류가 바뀌므로(고성장주가 저성장주로 전환 등) 동적으로 봐야 한다고 강조. 저성장주: 이익·배당이 정체된 기업. 배당 안정성(배당성향)을 점검하고, 새로운 성장 동력이 없으면 투자 가치가 낮다고 봄. 안정성장주: 연 6~12% 성장(과거 1980년대 기준 10~12%). 경기침체에 방어력이 있으나 주가가 50~100% 급등하면 매도 고려. 포트폴리오의 40~50% 비중 제시. 고성장주: 연 20~25% 성장이 적정하며 50% 이상은 과열로 경계. 스타벅스 1990년대 사례 언급. PER이 성장률보다 낮아야 하며, 재무 건전성과 한 도시·국가를 넘는 수익성 확장 확인 필요. 경기순환주: 자동차·항공·철강·화학 등 경기 따라 움직임. 침체 후 회복은 예측 쉬우나 사이클 잘못 잡으면 수년 대기. 재고·정점 이익 시점 관찰. 턴어라운드: 파산 우려가 줄면 급등 가능. 구조조정이 실질적 일회성 손실인지, 비용절감 효과가 무엇인지 확인 필요. 뱅크오브아메리카(2009년 이후 10배), PG&E 등 언급. 자산주: 시장이 간과한 숨은 자산(부동산·토지·지식재산 등) 보유 기업. 가치가 드러날 때까지 인내 필요, 부채와 경영진 자본 배분 점검. 리서치 언급 종목: 아메리칸항공(턴어라운드·경기순환), 써모피셔·LabCorp(필수 소모품·도구 기업), 스포티파이·페이팔·Atlassian 등은 리서치 대상으로만 언급되며 방향 예측 없음. 출연자 전망: 특정 대상 자산에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언 없음(장기 원칙만 제시).
다듬은 글
today fellow investors thank you for commenting your ideas and your great businesses in yesterday's video and today we're going to categorize those stocks into the six categories Lynch finds crucial when it comes to investing so that you can attach a story to the investment idea you have and then see all the characteristics of that stories so let me first discuss the stories and then will comment on a few stocks that you mentioned in yesterday's comments so we have slow growers stalwarts fast growers turnarounds cyclical and asset place those are the six investments categories that Peter Lynch puts a stock into and then those have specific characteristics and you have to see how where is which stocks remember stocks always evolve over time always change so one stock in over in 20 40 years can be in each category that's something to keep in mind investing is always dynamic before just going into the categories Peter Lynch says big companies small moves so coca-cola was a great company is a great company but over the last 22 years it's up just 36% it is globalised it's growing its growing earnings and dividends but it's also about valuation and then it's also about how big the company already is to grow more into the future also a concept that Lynch discusses diversification when a company starts investing into stupid things with lower return on capital just to chase the growth that isn't coming from the main product so you see coca-cola zero healthy green whatever so let's go into the categories number one slow growers keep in mind that fast growers turning to slow growers at some point in time a recent example is Apple Apple and IBM are discussed in the book as fast growers IBM became a slow grower much earlier than Apple but sooner or later all stocks hit the upper limit and become slow growers so extremely fast growth since the introduction of the iPhone for Apple and then over the last five years very slow growth in revenues and then what are the characteristics of slow growers flat chart flat earnings and therefore a flat stock chart but can move on valuation as we have seen Apple do generous and regular dividend apples dividend and buyback payout is very large compared to earnings so they are not investing into new things and therefore you have to check the dividend safety low payout gives a caution that the dividend will continue to be paid out high payout makes it risky because you can have the coronavirus hitting apples revenues and then lowering its dividend and buybacks so growers are not by for Lynch because Lynch is looking for better companies slow growers are for those that want safety or perceived safety because when things turns out for slow growers and we have seen many companies really drop drop drop despite the good dividends despite everything so Lynch says if there is a slow grower with no perspectives to turn around to increase growth to do smart things to diversify into new things new products and then you also have to see how much is that new product significant for the revenues it's a no investment for Peter Lynch the second category are Stockstill words so Peter Lynch discusses companies that grow faster than other companies between 10 and 12 percent ok this was in the 1980s so inflation was higher so companies were naturally growing higher we can now put it perhaps between 6 and 12 percent which are good growth rates but those are companies that ok can expand their business but you can I can't expect miracles from there so it is about valuation and then if a company goes stale word goes up 50 80 100 % you might think about selling it and buying something that's more undervalued because the up the spike in the price doesn't justify the earnings growth for example bristol-myers is a company that grew 10% since 2014 ok that's good the earnings were made for those that bought in 2010 for example over the last year's it wasn't that good but it recently spiked so that those that have such a company might think about selling it now and then buying something that still more undervalued according to Lynch now Lynch owns and owns such companies because those give good protection in recessions companies that continue to grow do their own business don't mind about what's going on in the economy that's a good business and that give you protection in a recession okay you have to check how each performed in a recession over the previous three four or five recessions you need to go a lot back in time now it was a different case in the 1980s but check how it works Howard the earnings hit what's the payout with the dividend and then see how much safety you want in your portfolio and how much weight you want for such companies in your portfolio the expectations for such companies make forty to fifty percent and sell always keep some in your portfolio for recession protection check the ups and downs during recession it's unlikely that these companies go out of business price to earnings ratio will tell you the value and beware of diversification where they invest in stupid growth at any cost then the fast growers Lynch's favorite stocks the stocks that if you find one that is great makes an investment career not just a great investment those are the fast growers growing between 20 and 25 percent per year not above 50% because that's a hot stock and Lynch doesn't like hot stocks because there is a lot of competition if their market is growing so fast everybody wants in think about uber left Dede and all those hot things so a little bit slower not that hot but strong sustainable growth great business model great earnings one example of that is Starbucks in the 1990s if they look at their crowd stock 29% 22 24 24 30% in the 2000s the company was growing had a confirmed business plan in the US and then it went for global X those that invested in the 1990s ended up with a 20 bagger those that invested later did still good but not as good as the company started growing let's say more slowly so what are the expectations if growth slows down the market doesn't like it if finances become an issue it's likely you go to chapter 11 so you have to look for good balance sheets making substantial profits figure out when they'll stop growing and how much you will pay for that growth at some time they will stop growing and turn into something else that's the only guarantee that's a certainty check how much room for growth there is 20 to 25 percent is the best growth to avoid hot growth proven profitable expansion in more than one city or country that Starbucks did price earnings ratio should be below the growth rate so still buying the earnings check whether growth is expanding or slowing down look for those few institutions owned and that you have heard of so this is an excellent explanation of what to look for for those great investments the next category is cyclical cyclical follow the economy automotive Airlines tire company steel chemical travel etc all cyclical companies and fourth stock is a perfect example down with every recession or slow down and down now again on the expectation that there will be a recession this is a typical cyclical stock performance so what are the expectations from such a stock to flourish when the economy turns good again to suffer when there is no economic growth 50% drops are normal if you buy it the wrong part of the cycle you can wait for years before seeing another upswing for this down since 2013 large and well now companies that make the unwary stock picker most easily part with its money because a lot bought 14 2014 because it was a great thing timing is everything watch for inventories and then stocks usually decline when peak earnings is reached and investors already start expect in a recession look at Ford from 2014 so know your cyclic all very well in the car industry three good years three to four five bad years and then you have to buy new cars the worse the slump the better the recovery it's easier to predict an upturn than a downturn so we will see when the app turn will come in the automotive industry and then we'll check the whole sector next our turn around turn around sir companies that are close to chapter 11 close to bankruptcy however when bankruptcy fears ease stocks explode and that's how earnings are we rate that stock is related and there is a lot of potential for example Bank of America is a 10 Berger since 2009 what are the expectations explode on the upside when things improve go bust when things don't improve you have to understand whether the issues are big as perceived or not if you can't simply say next can the company survive a raid from creditors how will the company turn around is what you have to ask restructuring is not good even if perceived as such one-time losses make buying opportunities if those are real one-time losses and what will be the effects of cutting costs one company that might be a turnaround might not be at this moment is PG and E and then the last category is asset plat place and as it plays a company sitting on something valuable that the market is overlooking or it hasn't yet started to bring cash yes economy cash real estate railroads accounting losses inventories number of users whatever that the market isn't seeing I remember buying prime adriatic mediterranean real estate for 1 euro per square metre in 2010 because nobody was looking at the value of the land so that was was what i was buying in place of amazon as mentioned yesterday so i was looking around me and finding great businesses to invest so no the asset have patience until the value unlocks look at the debt look at the manage destroying or creating value are there any hidden assets is there an activist investment involved discussing your ideas it's always great to look for businesses around you and then understand their value their quality and systematize them into the six categories we discussed I am very very thankful for all the comments that came on yesterday's video and if someone wants to find research ideas stock market research ideas then the video yesterday is full of ideas in the comments from companies like American Airlines here that people use and definitely think it's a good business but that's a turnaround cyclical story to categorize it then looking deeper something very interesting team almost every IT business uses their products and will continue to do so after pay even hardware stores put this on their adverts as a paid option quest Diagnostics LabCorp used by the person that commented in the sector further coming from biotech scientists background we use TMO products in Academy industry labs all the time and they can acquire great products increase the price one they get you because they know you won't change your scientific protocol so very interesting businesses to look at and then you put them on the watchlist categorize them and buy them windows are a great buy more ideas from Austria in this case I grana that makes sugar RTL television utility company and the largest brick producer in the world we winner Berger if you don't know the company more ideas this is very interesting I work for al stone and I see how the railway business is growing across the globe while everyone focused on electric cars rail is very interesting also electric more scalability and everything and it pays the high dividend already a very interesting stock to categorize more businesses my son Dumont be I'll tell sat European very interesting businesses oh I have a lot of work to do a lot of research to do to really find what is a buy when it is a buy see what should I put on my research list etc Spotify mentioned very often as a lot of people are using it so another stock to research PayPal Restoration Hardware etc and then you see okay if you find such business okay we know like Markos says he's here about Atlassian then they offer great products and if you buy that at the right time then this is the result look at from 20 to 153 in just three four years so it's a shame we didn't see it but it might still be so a lot of research a lot of great ideas from you and this is what Peter Lynch is always talking about self wealth from Australia also expanding internationally could be very very interesting so we have to research back up to research all of these put reports my stock market research platform members will be very happy from the quantity of reports coming interesting businesses continuing the sector analysis but when you analyze them then you have to see how it fits your investment strategy so when it comes to investing strategy you you use these six categories and then you put the idea into those and then you know what to expect what to look for and Peter Lynch says it's all about research investing in stocks without doing research is like playing stud poker without looking at the cards so you look researching he says you need just a few hours on each business to check what is important so first categorize the business we'll discuss later the fundamentals and then you just need one hour a week to follow the stock learn about the stock that's also what I do if you don't have the time to do the research to search you can always check my stock market research platform and then see all my research in details reports on sectors and many many stocks now going back to Peter Lynch just look around yourself categorized and then we'll discuss on fundamentals so please subscribe click that notification well what are we going to talk next the perfect stock to buy stock to avoid it's all about earnings will talk about fundamentals and how to do research thank you looking forward to your comments any questions any ideas and I'll see you in the next video
Comments 0