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welcome back joining us now very special guest Jim Rogers uh to dive into some of the latest trends and what we're witnessing in global markets Jim great to have you with us uh markets just seem to be going from strength to strength when the last time we spoke as well we were seeing highs and continuing to see new records being made all the time has anything significantly changed in your view JY or are you even more uh perhaps concerned or eyeing what could possibly be the formation of a bubble is that how you're viewing the current situation as we now also see Commodities spiking other asset classes across the board are setting new records I told you before uh yes bubbles are beginning to develop we don't have full-fledged bubbles yet except in bonds bonds everywhere are a full-fledged bubble I mean at the moment if I were buying countries I would buy Japan I would buy Russia both of them are still down dramatically but lots of money is going to pour into both of them because they are cheap and likewise agriculture you see what's happening to agriculture since we spoke last you know I'm not buying America America's at an all-time high Japan Russia agriculture makes sense and the latest uh the latest data out of Japan was uh was in encouraging as well um on the commodity front given what we're seeing on crude I did want to get your perspective on that the blackouts in the US the fact that we're seeing that uh um you know Supply shortage versus outlook on growth as well uh what's your reading of that situation as crude finally comes back to those pre-co levels well crude has at the highest has been in over a year as you well know um and so it it should it should have a rest to have a correction somewhere along on the way but no I mean the production of crude and the reserves of crude have been going down the the bubble popped in the bubble popped in fracking and now people realize oh my gosh World supplies are declining that and by the way I that's one reason I'm buying Russia because Russia's depressed and Russia has a lot of oil and a lot of agriculture when you say agriculture Jim and you've been bullish on this for a while um you know what all would that include and what are some of the I mean would you be looking at the commodity exchange or would you also be looking at Key markets where you see this emerging as a strength I mean here in India we've been focusing a lot on the domestic uh and the rural recovery for example uh you know within the EM basket um you know what's would would India feature or would certain themes within the market feature on your radar I love India as I've told you many times if you can only visit one country you should visit India it's the best to visit in the world I don't have Investments there now because the markets at a high Japan is down 35% from its high Russia's hated I'd rather buy places that are down as far as agriculture I'm a little lazy I like to buy the index all the studies show that index investing outperforms most people especially lazy people like me I I buy rja on the New York Stock Exchange because it's an a an agricultural index but but but if you know what you're doing I should buy buy the individual Commodities most people I'm lazy but if you know what you're doing buy sugar buy wheat buy the things that you know find what's depressed and buy individual commodities sure Jim in light of the escalating uh fuel prices here back in India and they're pretty much skirting around the all-time high both petrol as well as diesel just wondering whether the trajectory of crud prices is going to remain intact barring a few or aberration here and there oh no we're going to have much higher prices of food fuel nearly all Commodities as I look around the world the single cheapest asset class Ste Commodities I mean bonds are a bubble as we discussed bonds or bubbles are Dev developing in stock exchanges no Commodities are still very very cheap uh his on a historic basis I mean silver still down 45% from its all-time high yeah Fair Point uh also wanted to understand since you're talking about inflationary environment that we're currently in what do you think is going to be the Central Bank strategies across the world are they going to be inflation Warriors or do you think the need of the hour is much growth and they wouldn't really be perturbed by inflation and asset prices uh moving up last great Central Banker in the world was in India he's gone now as you know but he was fabulous there's nobody else in the world in a central bank now understands money inflation or anything else and all of these guys think that printing money is necessary and is okay and there will not be inflation Now history shows that when you do this continuously it has always led to inflation maybe they're right maybe it's not going to lead to inflation this time but I'd rather bet on Silver than on Paper Money Jim uh just to uh you know take your thoughts forward in last 10 years all Central Bankers have followed a very lose monetary policy yet inflation has not come back uh so it was not that liquidity was not there liquidity was obviously there in abundance so if in last decade liquidity has not bought inflation back why do you think inflation will come back next two or 3 years that's an extremely good question and a good Insight part of the reason is because oil prices collapsed and since oil is the single most ingredient for all of us in our lives you know no matter what we are and where we are that is one reason and also there was a lot of production now maybe it is different this time maybe the central Bankers are right and maybe we're not going to have inflation this time around but I have learned that when you hear This Time It's Different you should be very worried Jim uh do you fear that America is going the Japan way which is low interest rates and lot of liquidity these are perfect recipes for growth to come back but that's not happening in Japan is Japan going going the America way and if if if sorry is America going the Japan way and if indeed America goes the Japan way which is the largest economy in the world then it's not great news Well Japan the Central Bank says he's going to print his word unlimited amounts of money and he's doing it every day that's one reason I'm buying Japanese ETFs by the way listen Japan's Got a dismo future it's got a terrible future I've written three bestsellers in Japan the last couple years is talking about it's got a disaster ahead of it but if he's going to print all this money and buy ETFs I am too uh but no it does not have a good fut and now America is doing the same thing America's the largest deor nation in the history of the world now is this all going to end up well I don't know you should watch ET and find out but in my view and in history would say this is not going to end well America's going to go deeper and deeper into debt and print more and more money just like Japan and try to drive interest rates lower Japan is doing the same thing building up more and more debt maybe maybe it's all okay maybe it's different this time but if it is it's the first time in history that this has worked if you have have to let's say go long on an entrepreneur or a company or a business will it be Tesla will it be uh Alibaba those are my only two choices I'd rather buy an I was referring to the obvious ones I would not buy either maybe Alibaba but you know history shows the the Dow Jones Industrial Average you've heard of it started 125 years ago none of the companies that were in that average when it started are there anymore they have all disappeared history CH history always changes you know what is on top today has never been on top decades later and it won't be now and America won't be on top a few decades later this is pretty clear uh throughout history now if I had to pick a single I don't know a single company I would like to probably an Indian company maybe I'm sure that right now there's some young Indians down in bangalor that we should all invest in I don't know them or maybe in China but no I mean please history is pretty clear that Japan is going to go have problems America is going to have serious problems in the next few decades you should India has a better future than Japan and America in 2021 Jim just to go back to the whole point on agriculture now agriculture Commodities some would also argue was a function of demand and production but given that there is mechanization in the world given that you know the whole uh genetic uh seeds are now available the borders which existed between various countries they are no longer there you know Americans are producing soy bean that has been consumed by the Chinese indan is producing mangoes that have been produced by folks like you were sitting in Singapore do you think the agriculture bull market this time purely because of the economics availability and the fact that transportation is easy may not be all that strong we've had mechanization and technological advances in agriculture for 150 years you know the number of farmers in America has dropped by 90% or something in the last 100 Years everybody has machines now but somebody still has to make this happen we still have to have human beings and maybe we're never going to have agricultural Cycles again I should watch ET more often you guys have changed the whole world but I know that we've had agricultural cycles for centuries and we will again because of weather humans disease all sorts of reasons but if ET is telling me Oh my goodness no more bubbles no more bare markets no more inflation no more agricultural Cycles hooray for et you know I've been a fan of ET for decades now I'm even more of a fan and we appreciate it uh Jim you know I want to also get a sense from you given the kind of debt situation and the kind of uh framework you've described the dollar now it is softening just a touch this has been a hot debate as to whether or not we will see an impact on the dollar it's it's held steadfast till now but Vis A some of the other emerging currencies it's it's actually starting to soften Just a Touch at the moment what's your outlook there well I own a lot of US Dollars I've just explained to you that the US is the largest header nation in the history of the world it's getting worse every week but all most other paper money most other currencies are also Under Suspicion now and most are being debased and when the turn next problem comes in the markets whether it's this year or next I'm sure that people are going to race to the US dollar because they think it's a safe haven it's not I expect the US dollar to get overpriced it's been correcting this year which is fine which is great uh but it will go very high it will get overpriced in the next bubble or the next turmoil I should say or maybe currency Bubble at which point I'm going to have to sell my US dollars I don't particularly want to because I'm an American citizen but I see what's happening I'm going to have to sell my US Dollars and find someplace else to put it and and and by the way when I said India has a better future than Japan and the US it does but remember India's building up debt too I don't particularly like what's happening in Delhi those guys are spending a lot of money and borrowing a lot of money that's interesting Jim because uh you know I mean they were heavily criticized for not spending to get the economy back on track to recovery and uh given what we're seeing now with earnings and the stock markets here it seems that we're headed in the right direction would you still be apprehensive about India in light of the current borrowing I want to tell you again I love India if you can only visit one country go there but Delhi is building up a lot of debt now and you say they're not spending enough I'm saying they're spend for me they're spending too much and India is doing better than other place or less badly than other places but Mr Moody spending too much money if you ask me now I'm not Indian so I I cannot tell you what to do but I don't all of this debt is going to end up in ter you know it's a good time to be old because old people are getting the advantages of all this but I have two teenage girls oh my gosh young people today do not have a very good future in most of the world we we'll Reserve that conversation about how to deal with children on some other Forum Gym but coming back to markets and coming back to where you think there is a value or there is a a valuation mismatch which is one currency Jim you would like to go long on for next couple of years next couple of weeks I I don't I'm not any good at short-term trading next couple of years oh well the US dollar I am long a lot of US Dollars my second largest I guess is the Chinese currency they're opening it up more and more not enough yet I would open it all the way if I were China I'm not China cannot tell India or China what to do but I would own the US dollar it's going to get overvalued it might turn into a bubble and it which point I would urge everybody to sell all of their US dollars because it will be the end the world is looking for something to compete with the US dollar for political as well as economic reasons I don't like saying this I'm an American but I have to face facts Jim if somebody has a option let's let's to diversify and construct a portfolio which is a combination of Indian stocks and few other Global stocks for an Indian investor who's watching the show right now live and then perhaps later on the Internet or on the Twitter do you think it is important to diversify at least 10 to 15% of your wealth outside India in the world should have some money outside of his own country first of all there are great opportunities in many parts of the world and second as an insurance policy of nothing else everybody has health insurance you hope you never need it but you should have some Investments outside of your own country whatever your country is for both investment reasons and insurance reasons so yes if I were an Indian I would own and you know what you're doing you will probably find some good Indian stocks to buy I I'm very optimistic about Indian tourism for instance in 2022 2023 uh but in agriculture but you should also have some money in other countries there there are other countries and other opportunities and also for insurance so Jim one has to let's say choose your three favorite company countries for this decade one is India second is China I'm confused about the third name I know one is India second is China I don't know the third one you want to speak well as a country for a decade from now I would say Russia is better than than uh others but at the moment the Japanese stock market because the bank of Japan is spending printing so much money and buying ETFs and stocks the Japanese stock market at the moment for you know the Japanese stock Market is still down 35% it might make it might go back to the old high it's it's been down for over 30 years that's a long time but as a country oh no Japan a decade from now oh my goodness no no they have serious problems well Jim we've just covered a range of topics and I was waiting for you to raise your silver cup the Silver Chalice with some warm water before we say cheers and we thank you for joining us that's because ET always takes my breath away I appreciate your time that's Jim Rogers a very dear old friend and a great Market commentator someone who's got years and years I won't say years but decades and Decades of wisdom and experience I appreciate your time sir and thank you for joining us
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