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결론: 과열 신호는 있으나 시장을 떠날 필요는 없고, 신중함을 유지한 채 투자 상태를 유지하라는 메시지. 성장주 투자: 마크스는 가치투자와 성장투자의 구분이 인위적이며 열린 마음이 중요하다는 아들의 주장을 수용. 고PER이라도 우수한 기업이면 투자 대상이 될 수 있다고 봄. 밸류에이션: 낮은 PER이 싸다는 의미가 아니고 높은 PER이 비싸다는 의미도 아님. S&P500 PER은 역사적으로 높지만 30%가 기술·소프트웨어 기업으로 구성이 바뀌어 일부 정당화 가능. 금리가 낮을수록 밸류에이션이 높아져야 하며 기대수익률은 낮아짐. 시장 행태: 공매도·IPO 쉬움, IPO 첫날 두 배 상승, FOMO(놓칠 공포)가 손실 공포를 대체하는 등 위험 신호 존재. 현재 경기 사이클은 초기 회복 단계 이후일 가능성이 있으나 제3단계 우려도 있음. 경기침체가 곧 올 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 전략: 완전히 매도할 필요는 없지만 '신중하게 투자된 상태(fully invested but cautious)' 유지. 오크트리의 'move forward but with caution' 기조 유지. 인플레이션·금리: 금리 상승 시 가격 하락은 불변의 원리. 장기채는 인플레이션과 금리 상승에 취약하므로 피하고 단기채 선호. 인플레이션 재발 가능성을 확신할 수 없지만 과도한 유동성·재정적자는 우려. 인도: 인적자원과 교육 수준이 높아 밝은 미래 기대, 싱가포르 조직을 통해 적극 투자 중이며 낙관적. 중국: 성장률이 둔화되었으나 여전히 세계 평균을 상회하며 구조전환 과제가 있음. 2020년 대응이 양호했다고 평가하고 낙관적. 비트코인·암호화폐: 공격적 행태가 나타나는 사이클 확장 현상으로 보며, 저금리 환경에서 높은 수익을 쫓는 위험한 행동이라고 경고. 본인은 그런 방식을 따르지 않겠다고 밝힘. 출연자 전망: 과열과 리스크를 경계하되 공포에 의한 매도는 지양하라는 입장.
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it gives me extraordinary pleasure and words perhaps cannot capture how excited I am to have Mr Howard marks on ET now I'm going to keep the introduction very simple which is that he is more than a teacher and a mentor to everyone in the investing World his memos essentially based on his experience really tell us what is right what is wrong what we should expect and what we should not expect Mr Marks what a delight to have n now thank you for joining us C it's great to see you again Mr Marx I was going through your last memo and the Harvard marks in this latest memo was slightly different you're talking about growth investing which is a big departure from the Harvard marks I know and the world knows because Howard marks is a value investor why is that well uh you know my son and his family uh came to live with us for most of the pandemic and he's a he is a a growth investor although he's flexible and he's not he's not too dogmatic uh but he he's been working on me uh to see the light and to also not be dogmatic and uh his position which I think is reasonable is that the division between growth and investing is artificial and and counterproductive and that uh the most important thing for an investor is to be open-minded and uh he argues for example that the mere fact that a company uh is Ron very well has a great market and and is fast growing should not uh bar it uh from investment U and uh we shouldn't say we well we only invest in Pro slow growing praic companies uh the argument is that the mere fact that a company is excellent and thus sells at a high valuation multiple should not bar it uh and that we should be open to all kinds of companies and that fast growing companies uh can be attractive and uh and uh even though they sell at high absolute valuation multiples they're not necessarily overvalued because of their high quality and potent and great potential uh and that makes sense to me and so I've tried to reflect uh a more open approach to investing uh as as he urges Mr Marx uh historical uh measure which investors use is PE and you've gone on record after a memo and have said that expens P does not make it a bad investment cheap P does not make it a good investment would well I would I would I would change that a little bit I would say that a low number doesn't necessarily mean it's cheap it may it may be it may uh or and a high number doesn't necessarily mean it's expensive uh it may be high relative to history uh but uh but not be expensive uh it it may be warranted and you know and if a stock is selling at a low PE Ratio or a low price to book there may be a reason it may be a poor company so the point is we shouldn't buy things just because the valuation numbers are low in the absolute and we should not refrain from buying things just because the valuation multiples are high in the absolute Mr Marx in your books and memos you've always placed extra importance on the behavior of the market so what to your mind captures the current behavior is it for more is it bubble is it Euphoria well look it's certainly reflecting elements of those things and there is there is uh what what I would normally call risky behavior taking place in in certain ways the the ease of offering specs the ease of doing IPOs the fact that IPOs double on the first day um uh you know the fact that uh that that uh we have what's called what I call fomo fear of missing out and the fear of missing out has taken over from the fear of losing money uh because people have to be invested in this world uh when things are going up all of these things are somewhat worrisome uh and you know of course the the PE ratio on the S&P for example is is high relative to history but on the other other hand we have to look at the fact that the composition of the S&P has changed you know 30% of the S&P is now at high-tech and software companies uh which are much better companies with with much much greater uh potential than the some of the companies of the past and so the fact that they they carry High pees and have pulled up the average PE on the S&P may be warranted uh so again I I think the mere fact that the PE is higher than it used to be it doesn't mean that it's that it's dangerous but we should be alert in particular the FED cut the interest rate to zero and the truth is that the lower the interest rate the higher the valuation should be because obviously when the valuation is higher the prospective return is lower which is alarming but then we say well if interest rates are low low prospective returns are on order so they're not that frightening so what I would say is we have to be cautious but we should not be scared and there's a difference and we should not refuse to invest merely because there are elements of uh riskiness uh present one Howard mark quotation which in a sense is itched on my wall is what smart guys do in the beginning fools do in the end so what do you think currently smart people should do and what do you think fools are doing because dealing with this kind of a market Mr Marks is very daunting everybody's waiting for correction it's not coming and those who are waiting are not making money right well um you know that the one of the smartest things I ever learned was back in the early 70s uh and a wise investor said to me that there are three stages to the bull market the first stage when only a very few four-sided people people begin to believe there could be Improvement the second stage when everybody knows things are getting better and the third stage when people believe things can only get better forever and you know it's important to know which stage you're in and the the wise man acts in the first stage and gets great bargains because there's no optimism embodied in prices and the fool uh overpays in the third stage because there's no pessimism and excessive optimism so where are we well we're certainly not in the first stage we're probably not in the second stage we have to worry about being in the third stage and that's why I think it's important to be cautious but at the same time we're in the beginning of an economic uh recovery uh we got we we we had the worst quarter in history in in the second quarter of last year it probably uh washed out a lot of excesses from the economy uh there's no reason to think we're going to have another recession uh anytime soon we may have a Slowdown in connection with the Resurgence of the covid uh but I think it's not going to be a full full-fledged recession and um so we have a good economic Outlook uh we have uh High uh PE ratios uh for uh tech companies but uh perhaps warranted maybe a little higher than is warranted but certainly not entirely unwarranted uh so I think it's I don't think we have to flee the market I don't think we have to eliminate the risk in our portfolios but on the other hand I do think that given the things I describe it's desirable to have a a a portfolio which while while invested and I'm not saying people should divest but while invested I think it's desirable to have El an overweighting of caution in our portfolios so you know our Mantra at oak tree is move forward but with caution at this time it has been our mantra for for a few years now and I would continue to Value High value caution in our portfolios and but but fully invested in a cautious manner I think is is the good is a good way to be right now at a time Mr Marks when inflation whenever it comes back and interest rates whenever they go higher it will only go higher so inflation is coming back in interest rates eventually will go higher you think investing in the debt Market is going to be difficult look there's a direct connection if rates go up prices go down that's you know that's just fact of life uh a bond with a 3% interest rate is very desirable when interest rates are zero but not desirable when interest rate are six uh and it has to decline in price in order to provide an adequate return When when rates go up so this relationship this is the relationship rates up price down rates down price up and and that's immutable however all assets decline in value when prices go up uh you know the value of an asset is the discounted present value of the future cash flows and the discounted value goes down when the discount rate goes up that's immutable also so uh uh I think that it it's something we have to worry about I think we you know the I know the FED is not worried about inflation and if you look at the world uh Japan and Europe for example have been trying to get 2% inflation for the last decade and they can't do it so uh and and and and even in the US you know there's something called the Phillips curve which has been thought to con to define inflation uh that that deflation that inflation goes up uh when the unemployment rate goes down because the slack goes out of the economy and workers get more negotiating power and so forth and uh so we've had a high uh low low uh low unemployment and well I I should say declining unemployment for the last 12 years since the global financial crisis we've had the lowest uh unemployment rates in 50 years in in 2018 and 19 and into 20 and we still haven't had inflation so I don't think we I don't think we should can be uh doctrinaire about the fact that we'll have inflation and uh and so I think we have to have our investments uh again uh there's nothing we can do about the possibility of inflation we certain we can't be sure it's coming uh we can't eliminate our our portfolio Holdings but I think we should invest in a cautious manner what does that mean with regards to inflation it really means no long bonds that's the most important single thing because if you have a long Bond then inflation go inflation and rates go up it has a very difficult effect on a long Bond short bonds are not that affected uh so I think you know I think it I think again invested but cautiously is the right think just couple of last followup question Mr Marks in your book you've specifically mentioned about India and I've read that you know reference to India you have investments in India I'm not getting into why and where but in general how would you view India as an investment destination well look I think that India has great potential it has enormous resources especially Human Resources uh it has uh good respect for Education the people that I meet in India are are impressive and uh disciplined and intelligent um and I think that India has a bright future you know it has to kind of get itself together uh and and operate uh well uh but we have a group in in Singapore which is has you know we're devoting significant resources we're active in India um and and I'm I'm optimistic about it uh I came back from my trip uh a few years ago very impressed and uh I look forward to my future with India what is your view on China considering that China One policy is something which is part of the boardroom narratives now China's no longer the Chinese economy is no longer expanding the way it was uh is that a challenge that China may not be the big superpower or the big uh driver now well I think that China will also has great future uh I think that they too have great resources uh they they are very organized they have a a a benign uh uh autocratic uh government uh which makes decisions and implements them effectively and prly um uh it is true that their growth rate is decelerating but it is still very high relative to the rest of the world you know they they can produce six plus percent GDP growth and that is very uh very much above average for the world uh us is uh that present less than half that um and uh so now they it it they have they have some difficult transitions it's hard to transition from 12% growth to six uh it's hard to transition from an economy that has been uh accelerated by uh very strong availability of financing for fixed investment which which you know maybe has produced excessive fixed investment and they have to make financing less available and have less fixed investment take place and transition to an a consumption economy uh they have to transition from an export oriented economy to domestic consumption oriented economy uh so there are a lot of transitions that they have to make uh but so far they seem to be making them well and they they they did quite well in 2020 compared to much of the rest of the world and uh you know seem to be coming out ahead uh of much of the world in in 20121 uh so uh you know again we're we're optimistic on China now I I I always say that uh that the the US for example is a mature adult and India and China are adolescence and uh uh I've had a adolescence at home and the world with the Adolescent is is rather tempestuous and up and down and volatile but but the Outlook is very positive for the Adolescent and I think that's true of India and I think it's true of China and we're very happy with our activities there which are substantial just one last question and since your book always refers to cycle given that right now interest rates so low do you think the importance of Psy gets defeated because there is no inflation rates so low it is quite contrary to the previous Cycles we've seen the rates inflation comes back and you know rates and interest inflation comes back and rates go higher yes well I'm not convinced that inflation is not coming back and I'm not convinced that rates aren't going higher and the people who are sure that you can inject massive amounts of uh liquidity into an economy and sure that you can run enormous deficits and increase your debts and not have any inflation uh I I I think their confidence is is misplaced uh I'm not you know I'm not a forecaster uh my my saying is always we never know where we're going we should know where we are that should inform our actions I'm not I I'm not an economist I don't say I know what's going to happen with placation I just think that it's hard to believe that we can have the benefits of injecting trillions of dollars into the economy without H and running up our debts to in the trillions and you know last year we added about uh 25% to our debts and Six Trillion to our debts and and I I don't think I think it's it's overly optimistic to be confident that we can do those things without any negative consequences that's all I would say Howard marks never predicts and he never gives a price Target but I'm tempted to ask you one last followup question or promise which is that You' always said that humans can always do things in an excess and Cycles can extend themselves do you think right now the cycle is extending itself in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency I think that the cycle uh that I think that behavior has been aggressive and I think that it's a behavior it's been aggressive for two reasons number one because aggressive behavior has been rewarded in the last 10 months and number two uh it because we're because interest rates are so low we're in a low return world and if you say we're in a low return world but I'm not content with a low return then you have to be active an aggressive way in order to get high returns in a low return world it's risky and you know you shouldn't do it with with poana attitude with great confidence uh it's not it's not my style uh and but but you have to most people feel they have to do it because they can't settle with returns of zero on cash one on treasuries two on high-grade bonds most in American investors need seven or six or or or seven and a half and in order to do that in a low return world you have to be be behave in a risky Fashion on the other hand I don't I'm not worried about the economy uh because I think we are at the beginning of a of a positive cycle uh and uh I I would not encourage again people to not invest but I I think that when in a in a world where many people are Behavior are behaving in an aggressive fashion in order to make a high return in a low return world I would not behave in an aggressive fashion uh uh Buffett says the less Prudence with which others are conducting their Affairs the greater Prudence with which we must conduct our own Affairs and I think that's a good motto for today Mr Marks really appreciate your time thank you for joining us you ended the interaction with the Buffett code but I'll interact uh with a quote from Havard marks which is that never forget the importance of risk this is something which is always under at by Justice thank you very much sir stay safe I look forward to my next visit to India thank you okay bye
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