저자: Danielle · 외국인
요약 보기
브로드컴(AVGO)과 엔비디아(NVDA)의 실적 발표 전 상승 셋업을 제시. 두 종목 모두 최근 분기 실적 후 상승 흐름, 내재변동성 상승, 일간 스퀴즈 및 21 EMA 눌림을 근거로 제시. AVGO는 900→920→940 목표, NVDA는 480→500 목표로 상승 가능성을 언급하며 불테일리 버터플라이 등 옵션 전략 소개. 하방 이탈 시 손절 기준도 제시.
다듬은 글
hey Traders it's Danielle and today I'm going to be talking about a pre-earning setup in broadcom and Nvidia so let's just start off by talking about what a pre-earning setup is uh now normally what I like to look for is I like to look for bullish trending tickers that are likely to trade higher going into an earnings report you can also do it the opposite direction where you're looking for a ticker to you know roll over going into earnings but in this market condition right now I'm going to be focusing on tickers that have had positive moves post earnings the past few quarters which would then likely lead to an increased uh bullish increased bullish pressure going into the next report the reason for this is really just because you know you have people out there that are saying oh my gosh you know this stock has done really well over earnings and look at this massive move that it had last quarter going into earnings I want to be involved in case that happens again so let's go ahead and buy this thing before the report now in the options Market you also have an additional Factor where you have the implied volatility going up into the earnings report so you know implied volatility is really important part of options pricing and when you have implied volatility increasing into a report what you're going to see is the price of your options contracts going up so you know ideally you can capture two things you can capture the rise and implied volatility plus the rise in price and when you get both of those things together um you know hopefully you can make money on your long options right now this does not work when for example you have this nice bullish setup and it rolls over and dies in that instance that's going to be where you're going to need to take a stop but let's go ahead and talk about you know what it would look like if it played out the way I'm thinking and the way you'd really want to see it play out now first of all you have a couple different setups here you know you have the rise in implied IV you have the you know passable quarters the bullish movement going into earnings you have bullish movement post earnings as well which is really helpful but then Additionally you have a daily squeeze anytime you have a daily squeeze with a pullback into a 21 EMA you know that in and of itself is a setup so if you you know just had that it would be a good idea but with all the other factors it just makes it a much stronger setup so looking at broadcom here um taking into account the earnings report The Squeeze essentially what I'm doing is I'm looking at this for higher prices now if you look at where the target would be the target's always going to be a return to the previous High first so you know you're going to have some resistance in here in that resistance Zone you're going to have another Target here this is basically going to be your first Target this is going to be your second Target and then the full extension is going to be the third target so one two three um to the upside so let's just start off by saying you know 900 so you're already almost there you're trading 8.75 next Target is going to be right up here at 9 20.
then after that you're looking for 9.40. so you know what kind of option strategy could you use to capitalize on that well looking at broadcom and looking at when it reports earnings it looks like it's going to be in this series right here based on the increase in IV if you scroll down you can see that well your options pricing is pretty expensive right so how can you take advantage of this well you know obviously if you have a bigger account you could definitely just come in buy the Delta 60 Delta 70 calls definitely would require a larger account but if that's going to be a little bit too rich for your blood the best way to do it would be to come in and either sell some put credit spreads that's something that could be done if you can find you know a series that has a little bit more liquidity or you could come in and buy a bullish butterfly which is something that I really like to do so you can see that it has a 49 expected move and that would bring us up right to about nine 50 so if you're looking at you know how can you trade it from 900 into 950 if you place a bullish butterfly c900 950 1000 that's going to go for about you know 1100 dollars so really not bad especially when you're comparing that against a long call that would cost you five grand so you know if you use a butterfly instead of the long call you know you're cutting your price down by you know one-fifth basically and you're able to really try to trade and capitalize on that same move so that's why I like butterflies the wrist reward on this would be pretty solid you're risking you know 1165 dollars Max profit of 38.35 so not too shabby I do like that now the other one that I wanted to talk about oh and I forgot one more thing that I needed to mention here I do have some positive Hot Zone stats you know this is saying that on average it's going to move about twenty four dollars so it's not perfect I wish the percentage was a little bit higher but we did see um broadcom trade lower you know throughout the bear Market a few times so it's bringing down that average now if we compare that against Nvidia and say all right well what about Nvidia everybody's all about Nvidia and Ai and all that kind of stuff and Nvidia had this major Breakaway Gap last quarter like what can we do with Nvidia um I think it makes sense to look for NVIDIA to trade higher as well again you have this daily squeeze you have this previous High that's a really nice magnet at 480 and then you have another key psychological value of 500.
so you know same setup with this one you have a situation where we do have those positive Hot Zone stats this just basically means that um on average over the course of the last 16 quarters the thing has traded Higher by about 8.36 percent during this time frame which it's in right now so you know it's about thirty seven dollars at current prices and on this one you can really see the rise in in IB look at that that is crazy so I like this um I think it makes sense to trade in video to the upside people may say you are crazy this thing has already come so far so fast but you know that's part of what really helps those moves going into earnings um if you you know have a situation where people are really hyped up on a stock and everybody thinks it's you know the most amazing AI play and you know whatever else it is those are the reasons why people will buy this stuff before earnings and that can really help a pre-earnings trade now when you're looking at you know what's it going to do after earnings that's another trade right now I'm talking about the pre-earnings move and trading that one right here so I think it makes sense to trade it up into 480 then 500 again like broadcom you know I'm wrong if it breaks down below these most recent lows uh and if that squeeze fires to the downside so that's really where I'd have that stop um same thing if you look at this chart right here you just want to look at those most recent lows and if it breaks down below those levels that's where I'd have my stop and I would get out so if you have any other questions let me know feel free to join me on my free newsletter you can find it at fivestartrader.com that's going to be f-i-v-e and you can sign up here today for tips tricks earnings setups and more I hope you have a great rest of your day and I'll see you in the next one hey Traders thanks video if you want to make sure that you get all of our free trading content make sure you hit subscribe and also give us a like and comment down below if you want to learn more about us and if you want to join us for live trading in real markets with real money make sure you go to simplertrading.com where you can join us for more info thank you very much and have a great day
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