저자: FibonacciQueen · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라(TSLA) 과거 고점 저항 이후 하락 전개를 피보나치 확장·되돌림 기반으로 분석하고, 매수 진입 조건을 기다리는 영상이다. 이 영상은 2017년 9월 기준 테슬라의 기술적 분석 사례를 다룬다. 이전 상승 스윙 확장(100% 투사)에서 저항이 형성됐고, 이후 30분봉에서 하락 돌파와 8/34 EMA 데드크로스가 나타나 매도 트리거가 발생했다고 설명한다. 현재 하락 구간에서는 과거 하락 패턴과 유사한 지지 구간 두 곳(약 344~346, 331~336 부근)을 주시하고 있다. 1차 지지는 일시 이탈했으나, 8 EMA가 34 EMA를 상향 돌파하는 매수 트리거는 아직 나오지 않았다. 진입 원칙으로는 지지 구간 테스트 후 하위 시간봉에서 반전 트리거가 확인되어야 하며, 트리거 없이 떨어지는 칼을 잡는 것은 피해야 한다고 강조한다. 지지가 무너지면 테슬라가 훨씬 더 낮은 가격까지 밀릴 수 있어 트리거 전 진입은 권하지 않는다. 발언자는 매수 트리거가 나오면 해당 구간에서 진입을 고려하겠다는 입장이며, 트리거가 없으면 매매하지 않겠다고 밝힌다. 개별 종목 예측이라기보다 조건부 기술적 접근 방식을 설명하는 영상이다.
다듬은 글
in today's video I'm going to talk about Tesla and I'm going to show you an example of where we saw a trigger and then what we need to watch for to look for a new potential buy entry in this one okay so one of the reasons why I like to use triggers it because it filters out a lot of these zones that will never hold okay so for example well you can see where this last high was made in Tesla it was at resistance that came from basically extensions of these two prior swings and a 100% projection of this prior rally swing of fifty eight dollars and seventy eight cents which was very similar to this rally swing of fifty seven dollars and seventy six cents so because of the extensions I was looking for possible resistance to the rally at that time because we did have a buy set up that was actually a very simple symmetry setup where I ran 100% of this prior decline over here projecting it from the new high here ran a 6-1 eight retracement that just happened to overlap and that was a zone where we hid and held and there were by triggers for an entry on the buy side but now that Tesla is falling apart first let me show you what happened after we made that high okay so this next chart is a 30-minute chart of Tesla and for the swing trade triggers I use either a 15-minute chart for an aggressive swing trade trigger except that one will get stopped out more often because sometimes you're just gonna have false entries because it's a little bit of a have a quicker entry or I use the 30-minute chart which is the not so aggressive entry but you can see when we made that high here that you did see the breakdown and the moving average crossover to the downside I use a combo of the 8 34 EMA on an intraday chart to indicate an entry and here you did have the cross over to the downside indicating that it was time to exit and if anybody was ok with counter trend trade they fit also short it and the other thing I like to see in a trigger is a pattern shift so in this case I wanted to see a prior swing load taken out because that shifted the pattern of higher highs and higher lows to lower lows and lower highs ok so when both of those things occur that's my official trigger and at that point let's say if you would have taken the trade your initial risk would have been either above the cluster or above the high made prior to your sell trigger which occurred you know like right over here ok so now going back to the setup chart where I'm now comparing this current decline in Tesla with quite a few of these prior declines and I actually added some additional ones from over on the left-hand side of the chart and I'm projecting those and going to look for possible support I'd do that let me just eliminate these old ones so that we don't yeah those don't get in the way but bottom line we're gonna watch well you're slightly through this first support decision but notice that there's absolutely no buy trigger because we'd have to see this you know blue bar crossed back above the red the 8th across the back above the 34 we haven't seen it the other area that we're gonna watch are actually two areas that we're gonna watch 344 twenty one two three forty six thirty seven and then also 331 seventeen 336 sixty-three so if we can test and hold one of these zones here we're gonna go down to the lower timeframe chart and then see if it fires off a trigger entry if it does then it's worth place in the back if it doesn't then you're just stepping in front of that proverbial freight train and it's typically not a good idea to do that because we can easily just blow through these support decisions I mean we could end up seeing much lower prices in Tesla so again not worth an entry unless we start to see the reversal triggers but I still will be stocking this one for a possible low because of the similarity with some of these you know prior declines in Tesla so again I'm stocking this one for a buy trigger against one of these zones if I don't get it I'm not going to play it
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